Rishi Sunak has bigger problems than Northern Ireland

Rishi Sunak in Windsor

The British Prime Minister before his press conference with EU Commission President von der Leyen.

(Photo: Reuters)

“All politics is local.” This old political rule of thumb is also the key to understanding why London and Brussels have now been able to settle their ongoing dispute over Northern Ireland. The deal was made possible primarily because British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recognized that for most Britons, the kingdom’s economic problems and illegal immigration are more important than a dispute over the principles of Northern Ireland’s constitutional status.

Sunak needs the help of his European neighbors if he wants to revive the severely collapsed trade with them and to stop the refugee boats that are drifting across the English Channel towards Great Britain every day. After the deal with Brussels, the British leader can hope that French President Emmanuel Macron will offer him more than a few more border guards on the beaches of Normandy to prevent economic migrants from making their dangerous Channel crossing.

The “Windsor Framework”, as Brussels and London sympathetically call their new agreement, is the result of a political risk assessment. Ultimately, for Sunak, the domestic political risks were greater if the dispute with Brussels had escalated than the risk of a rebellion by unionists and hard-line Brexit supporters at home. The next few days and weeks will show whether he has miscalculated.

It is completely unclear what legal weight the “Windsor Framework” will have in comparison to the internationally binding Brexit Treaty, including the Northern Ireland Protocol. Basically, both sides have agreed that Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU internal market with all its rules. Brussels has only promised to use its associated powers less strictly than before.

It is doubtful whether the “emergency brake” for parliament in Belfast mentioned by Sunak is really sufficient to prevent the legal areas in Northern Ireland and the rest of Great Britain from drifting apart. The hurdles to stopping EU law are pretty high. At the same time, however, the government in London never tires of promising the British a “Brexit dividend” in the form of an abolition of EU rules.

Great Britain has bigger problems than Northern Ireland

Anyone who believes that the deal between London and Brussels is Britain’s first step back from the Brexit diaspora into the arms of the EU is mistaken. Sunak is a pragmatist, but also a Brexit supporter from the very beginning. The Windsor Framework is essentially a repair manual for the biggest damage Britain’s exit from the EU has done to Northern Ireland.

Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen explain the agreement

Northern Ireland should remain part of the EU internal market with all its rules.

(Photo: Reuters)

Nor is the British prime minister keeping his promise to make Brexit a success with the deal. The problems in Northern Ireland are only politically sensitive because of the province’s violent past, they are not the biggest.

Economically, Great Britain suffers from a chronic weakness in investment, productivity and growth, which has worsened since leaving the EU. Politically, the UK has sidelined itself with Brexit. In the battle between the great powers for geopolitical and geoeconomic dominance, the British are at best playing a secondary role.

Should the Northern Ireland deal help to rebuild trust between Britain and its old EU partners, and thus pave the way for a rapprochement on other issues such as energy security or the technology sector, that would be in addition to the many practical simplifications in Northern Ireland really is that ‘tipping point’ that Sunak spoke of at Windsor.

More: Northern Ireland remains part of the EU internal market – Sunak risks resistance in its own ranks

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