Real estate markets in the surrounding areas of German metropolises

A rather unexpected fan of the Hamburg area is Montanablack. The Youtube star is so proud of his home town of Buxtehude that he has the zip code 21614 tattooed on his face and stomach. In his autobiography entitled “From Junkie to Youtube Star”, published two years ago, the town seems to be something like the North German Bronx.

In his most recent videos, on the other hand, Montanablack likes to show his new house – a mix of suburban chic combined with graffiti. The Buxtehude is not only the first choice for the 33-year-old gamer. The city of 40,000 with its historic port has become more attractive for home buyers in recent years.

This is not only due to the connection to the Hamburg S-Bahn, which was inaugurated in 2007. In the north of the city, at the transition to the Altes Land fruit-growing area, a new section of the new Autobahn 26 is almost complete. It should lead to Hamburg in 2025.

There are new opportunities for property buyers in the entire Hamburg area – but not always obvious. “The Hamburg area has a lot to offer. However, anyone who hopes that they will find a wide range of products and low prices here will quickly be taught better, ”says Lena Soyke from the Engel & Völkers broker in Hamburg.

The analysis of von Poll Immobilien for the Handelsblatt shows that the purchase prices for houses are already quite high, especially in the direct vicinity of Hamburg. The district of Stade, in which Buxtehude is located, is an exception.

It gets cheaper the further homebuyers orientate themselves to the east to the Mecklenburg Lake District, south to the Lüneburg Heath or down the Elbe to the west. It remains expensive in the north, where the attractive proximity to the Baltic Sea drives up prices.

There is no place that suits all interested parties. “The attractiveness of a location is always in the eye of the beholder, because the demands on the home and the neighborhood are complex and also depend on one’s own phase of life,” Soyke points out.

Some buyers were primarily looking for an inexpensive alternative to Hamburg, but wanted to continue to use good infrastructure. For them, the surrounding small towns are more recommendable. Other buyers make a conscious decision to want to live in the country after work or even to move their office entirely to the country. There are attractive locations away from the cities – for example on the lakes in the east or in the direction of the Elbe and the coast.

In terms of price, the differences in the Hamburg area are also large. In the neighboring cities to the east, such as Reinbek and Wentorf, the prices are just as high as in the Hamburg metropolitan area, says Andreas Gnielka from real estate agent Grossmann & Berger. The reasons are the well-developed infrastructure with its own centers and the proximity to the Sachsenwald, Bismarck’s retirement home.

The situation on the coast is similar. There is also a certain amount of competition from holiday homes and second homes – even if the municipalities successfully secure living space through building law. The picturesque old towns of Lübeck and Lüneburg are also attractive, but not much cheaper than Hamburg.

Those who are more price sensitive have to make compromises. There are also large residential areas around places like Elmshorn and Pinneberg. But the city centers themselves are not very attractive. Nevertheless, expert Gnielka counts this area as one of the few remaining insider tips. The areas south of the Elbe are even more attractive in terms of price – not without reason: Commuters fear the Elbe tunnel, which can become a traffic jam without bypassing.

With the increasing home office, the digital infrastructure is becoming more important. Gnielka observes that houses in rural areas without a fast internet connection are now more difficult to sell. It is worth taking a closer look here.

In other respects, too, the community is differently good at supplying new development areas with schools and medical practices right from the start, the experts observe. That was a good success in Escheburg, for example, in a new development area with 200 residential units, says Gnielka. The houses there have been growing upwards since this summer. At the same time, a Rewe supermarket is also being built for local supplies. Ahrensburg is also creating good new structures.

New tracks, new possibilities

The outlook on the transport infrastructure is more speculative. A number of projects have been announced in the Hamburg area. While the U5 is primarily intended to develop the city itself, new S-Bahn trains could make the surrounding area more attractive.

The S4 should better connect Ahrensburg, Bargteheide and Bad Oldesloe. In the north, the route previously served by the AKN diesel railway via Quickborn to Kaltenkirchen could be replaced by an extended S21. Shortened travel times or changes would make the places on the route even more interesting. Bad Oldesloe in particular is an attractive location, believes Gnielka.

However, when the plans will actually be implemented is still open. A deterrent example is the U5: Construction is scheduled to begin in 2022 – 47 years later than originally planned.

Road construction is also changing the market. “The Kehdinger Land on the lower reaches of the Elbe, located in the Stade district, is still a real insider tip with attractive prices. However, this could soon change with the expansion of the A20 Elbe crossing, ”says Volker Dallmann, an expert at von Poll Immobilien.

A study that the data analysis company Pricehubble carried out for the Handelsblatt last year shows places where commuting is acceptable, especially when working from home on a few days of the week. The Elbe town of Boizenburg in the Mecklenburg district of Ludwigslust, for example, performed particularly well in terms of price.

Overall, however, the study showed that more home offices will only marginally expand the commuting space in Hamburg. However, this could consolidate the price trend. In the current Von-Poll study, prices rose by ten to 17 percent in twelve of the 21 regions analyzed in the suburbs including Hamburg last year.

The highest price increases were in Rotenburg an der Wümme and Lübeck with almost 17 percent each, followed by Ostholstein with 16.1 percent. “It is noticeable that two thirds of the districts analyzed with price increases in the double-digit range are currently still below the 300,000 euro mark for single and two-family houses. It is therefore to be expected that the upward trend in these regions will continue in the coming years ”, expects Dallmann. He therefore also sees opportunities for capital investors and for holiday homes – for example in Cuxhaven, which is a quickly accessible place by the sea for the conurbations in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Slowed price increase as a warning sign

Where it is already expensive, prices no longer rose as much. That could be a sign that the end of the rally will soon be reached: in Hamburg itself as well as in the Pinneberg, Stade and Heidekreis regions, the average prices for single and two-family houses only increased between 7.3 percent and 7, 8 percent.

The Ludwigslust-Parchim district is an outlier. There the prices rose by only 3.3 percent, at the same time there are the second cheapest real estate prices in the entire ranking. This could also be due to the fact that large parts of the sparsely populated district are no longer within a commuting distance from Hamburg.

How much the YouTuber Montanablack is benefiting from the price increases is unclear: he keeps his new address top secret for fear of intrusive fans. But the house shouldn’t be too far from his native Buxtehude. The Hamburg area just has real lovers.

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