Russia’s president has long since made his country a diplomatic indicator again.
(Photo: ddp/Newscom)
“After this crisis, the world will be different,” says Annalena Baerbock. At first that sounds like a cliché, like unreflected pathos. But there is a high probability that the Foreign Minister is right in this assessment – possibly even regardless of whether there is actually an open war in Ukraine or not.
There are indications that Vladimir Putin could dare an invasion: the military preparations, now even with tactical nuclear weapons, the renewed flare-up of violence in the Donbass and the absurd talk of genocide against the Russian-speaking population, which could provide a pretext for the invasion. All of this can be part of the confusion that is so typical of Putin. The US once again sees it as a sign that a military offensive is imminent. doubts are warranted.
The fact is, Putin is achieving some of his important goals without firing a rocket. Soaring oil prices are weighing on western economies, while big energy exporter Russia is benefiting. The economy in Ukraine is already paralyzed in the face of growing fears of war and encirclement.
And even more important from Putin’s point of view: Russia, recently mocked as a “regional power” by the US President, is once again a fixture in the top league of superpowers. The Kremlin leader owes this not least to his Western antagonists. Donald Trump’s America was no longer willing, his successor Biden is no longer even able to play the role of global regulatory power – the loss of credibility that Trump has inflicted on the leading Western power is too great. Europe presents itself as it always is: powerful and pathetic in Sunday speeches, powerless and divided in applied geopolitics.
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Putin understood that and is taking advantage of the situation. He fills the vacuum with his understanding of the world order: whoever has military power does not have to abide by the rules of international law. For him, war is a legitimate and efficient political tool. The size of a nation depends primarily on the size of its zones of influence.
Putin has shown that he is not afraid of war: 2008 Georgia, 2014 Crimea, then Donbass and for years in Syria. But the risks of an open war against Ukraine are far greater, and not only in terms of the economic damage caused by the sanctions. An open war would finally make Russia the pariah of the international community.
Revitalizing the “brain dead” NATO
The current state of limbo of the conflict is of greatest benefit to Putin. So it’s no wonder that he keeps repeating the already unfulfillable demands, such as simply halving the sovereignty of Eastern European states. Now he is demanding the withdrawal of all NATO troops from the states of Eastern and Central Europe.
So how do you deal with a politician who doesn’t want to negotiate seriously at all, but instead wants to wear down the opponent? Even the recent idea that Ukraine will voluntarily renounce NATO membership for a certain period of time will not appease Putin. He wants to bring the whole country into his sphere of influence.
Putin complains that the West does not take his country’s interests into account. It cannot have been due to a lack of consideration on the part of Berlin. It was the federal government that pushed for expanding the G7 to include Russia in the G8. It was Merkel who, with France, opposed US efforts to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO in 2008. Not to mention the Pipeline Connection, which Berlin wanted to see as a continuation of the foreign policy tradition of “change through rapprochement”.
None of that helped. And yet there is one effect that Putin may have misjudged: his aggression has not only led to a revitalization of “brain-dead” NATO, but could ultimately make a decisive contribution to strengthening cohesion in the West. Exactly what Putin wants to prevent with all his might.
More: Finding the Spark: How Putin Might Justify an Invasion