London Negotiations between the UK government and the EU over the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit deal are on the verge of a crucial breakthrough. “We’ve come a long way,” diplomats in London confirm the progress made in the secret negotiations. After that, both sides want to present a compromise by the end of February at the latest on how the future movement of goods between the Northern Irish province and the rest of Great Britain should be regulated.
However, whether the compromise proposal will end the long-standing dispute between London and Brussels depends crucially on whether British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak can push through the deal against the hard-line Brexit advocates in his party.
“His internal party critics could make it very difficult for him to survive politically,” warns former Deputy Prime Minister Michael Heseltine, who is campaigning in the conservative party for a rapprochement with the EU.
Disruptive maneuvers against Sunak could come from the so-called “European Research Group” (ERG) as well as from former Brexit negotiator David Frost and ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The future role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) in disputes in Northern Ireland trade could become a stumbling block for an agreement with Brussels.
On the other hand, the prime minister apparently wants to use a political maneuver to overturn the resistance of the Unionists in Northern Ireland who are loyal to London.
Should Sunak get the upper hand in the internal party dispute, the way would be clear for Britain to move closer to the EU in other areas as well, for example Britain’s participation in the European research program Horizon. But London also sees scope for closer cooperation with its former EU partners in security policy, energy supply and migration issues.
Sunak must push through any compromise against opponents within the party
However, the prime minister cannot venture too far at the moment, because the Brexit hardliners denounce any rapprochement with the EU as a betrayal of the 2016 Brexit referendum, which in turn reduces the political chances that a deal with Brussels will come about at all. “The shift in sentiment around Brexit makes it even more difficult to settle the dispute over Northern Ireland,” said Tory Grande Heseltine.
For example, Brexit supporter Frost criticized a “secret meeting” of supporters and opponents of leaving the EU from business and politics at the weekend in Ditchley. This is “further evidence that many in our political and economic establishment want to reverse the deals we made to leave the EU in 2020 and instead want to remain in the EU’s shadow.” The meeting was also attended by former Brexit campaigner and current Minister Michael Gove and Labor politician Peter Mandelson.
Unionists protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol in Belfast (archive photo).
(Photo: Reuters)
In fact, the number of those who consider leaving the EU to be a mistake is growing in the UK. According to a survey by the Unherd opinion research institute, the majority of voters in only three of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain are in favor of Brexit. 54 percent of those surveyed now regret the decision of 2016.
Former Conservative Prime Minister John Major also called Brexit “a colossal mistake”. Jonathan Haskel gave a reason for the discord on Monday. The British economist and monetary politician estimates the economic damage caused by the exit from the economy alone at around 1,000 pounds (about 1,300 euros) per household.
The British pharmaceutical company Astra-Zeneca recently announced that it would build a new £320 million plant in Ireland rather than in northern England as planned.
At the core of the compromise between London and Brussels in the Northern Ireland dispute are technical simplifications for freight traffic from the rest of Great Britain to Northern Ireland through a system of “trusted traders”. After both sides recently agreed to exchange real-time trade data, goods destined directly for Northern Ireland are to be waved through on a “green” lane without strict customs controls. For goods that are to be imported further into the EU from Northern Ireland, on the other hand, strict controls will remain on a “red” customs lane.
The main reason why this compromise now has any chance of being implemented is that the British government wants to separate the negotiations on the Northern Ireland Protocol from the formation of a regional government in Belfast. So far, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the strongest Unionist force, has refused to agree to a government led by the pro-Irish party Sinn Fein unless the Northern Ireland Protocol is changed in its favour.
Protest against the current customs border between Northern Ireland and the British Isles in the Irish Sea.
(Photo: Reuters)
However, the British Minister for Northern Ireland, Chris Heaton-Harris, has now extended the deadline for forming a government in Belfast by another year, to January 18, 2024, thereby signaling to the DUP that an agreement with Brussels is possible without their consent. David Jones of the Tories’ right-wing party is already warning: “If the government wants an agreement to stand, then it has to be acceptable to the Unionists.”
They are primarily concerned with assurances that the province should be more closely tied to the kingdom politically and economically. DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson says Northern Ireland should not be treated like an “EU colony”.
The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 stipulates that a government can only be formed with the consent of the two former civil war parties. However, the ex-premier major is now proposing to reform the peace agreement after 25 years. “If you revamped it, maybe you could find a few things that you’d update,” Major said.
In Brussels, however, people remain skeptical as to whether Sunak is politically strong enough to cut the Northern Irish knot in his party. “The outcome of the negotiations has not been prepared in any way by the government in London,” according to diplomatic circles.
Controversy over the role of the European Court of Justice
The debate about the ECJ shows how thin the political ice is on which Sunak moves. According to the EU treaties, the Court of Justice in Luxembourg is responsible for all legal disputes relating to the European internal market. Since Northern Ireland continues to be part of the EU internal market after the Brexit agreement, which was co-signed by London, European law and British sovereignty collide here.
“The Court of Justice cannot play a judicial or arbitral role in the future settlement. I think it’s better if this is recognized sooner rather than later,” Brexit negotiator Frost drew a red line last year.
Nevertheless, Sunak is apparently willing not to fundamentally question the jurisdiction of the ECJ. According to observers, a compromise could result in most disputes being decided by Northern Irish courts in the future, which could, however, turn to the ECJ in an emergency.
The EU insists that the Commission in Brussels retains its right to directly involve the judges in Luxembourg.
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