Berlin, Vienna In the car business, the diesel engine is a phased-out model, and market shares have been shrinking for years. In the case of heavy trucks, on the other hand, the compression-ignition engine is still omnipresent. According to figures from the Federal Motor Transport Authority, just ten all-electric semitrailer tractors have been newly registered in Germany since the beginning of the year, out of a total of more than 22,000 heavy trucks.
If this continues, Germany will clearly miss its climate targets in the transport sector, environmentalists warn. But in the commercial vehicle business, what counts most is the price. And this is where diesel trucks have had a clear advantage to date. From 2030, however, this is likely to change fundamentally. According to a study by the Dutch research organization TNO, which the Handelsblatt was able to view in advance, battery-electric trucks should be cheaper than comparable combustion engines from 2030.
In 99.6 percent of all applications, from supermarket trucks to 40-ton articulated lorries for long distances, electric trucks would then show lower total operating costs, the authors conclude. The report was commissioned by the European non-governmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E) and the German think tank Agora Verkehrswende, which is financed in part by the Mercator Foundation.
The reason for the new lobby material is that the EU Commission wants to evaluate by the end of the year as part of its “Green Deal” whether the existing fleet consumption specifications for trucks are sufficient. Across all sectors, the EU member states want to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030. In order for this to succeed, heavy goods traffic should emit a good third less carbon dioxide in eight years than in 2019 and 2020.
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However, this is not enough, says Wiebke Zimmer, deputy director of Agora Verkehrswende. “In the transport sector, the path to climate neutrality is not progressing as quickly as it should in many areas.” Based on the TNO study, politicians can now, with a clear conscience, accelerate the pace of low-emission drives.
65 instead of 30 percent CO2 reduction
Zimmer is demanding twice as strict standards for the emission of climate-damaging carbon dioxide as previously planned. Specifically, she advocates that truck manufacturers and logistics companies have to reduce their CO2 fleet limits by 65 instead of 30 percent by 2030. The 30 percent target is to be brought forward to 2027. From 2035, only battery trucks or trucks with hydrogen-based fuel cells will be registered.
In order to support the ramp-up of electric trucks, the associations are suggesting purchase bonuses and a truck toll that favors electric trucks and disadvantages those with diesel or gas drives.
The industry welcomes stronger financial incentives for electric commercial vehicles, which are usually twice as expensive to buy as combustion engines. All other demands are met with rejection. “Simply tightening the fleet limits doesn’t help anyone,” explains Frank Huster, General Manager at the German Freight Forwarding and Logistics Association (DSLV).
In principle, its member companies would like to “work in the time dimension”, as recommended by the study authors. But there is a central problem: “The bottleneck is the charging infrastructure,” explains the head of the association. This applies locally and across Europe. In the coming years, at most, the major motorway axes would be electrified. And little progress is also being made on the companies’ depots. “It’s extremely difficult to get lines,” says Huster.
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The Federal Association of Road Haulage, Logistics and Disposal (BGL) also criticizes the lack of infrastructure. Board spokesman Dirk Engelhardt, who, in contrast to the DSLV, primarily represents small companies with few vehicles, does not expect a market ramp-up for hydrogen-powered vehicles before 2026 or 2027.
“The complete fleet replacement will then take several years,” he says. “Battery-powered long-distance trucks are likely to be on the market a little earlier, but the fleet replacement will take some time here too.” challenges for the future.
“Will have to drive diesel for as long as possible”
For BGL boss Engelhardt it is clear: “Until further notice, government funding is essential due to the exorbitant additional costs.” Until then, the industry would stick with classic drives. “We will have to drive diesel for as long as this is possible,” he explains.
Meanwhile, vehicle manufacturers are trying to expand their range of electric vehicles. Dozens of electric trucks are expected to come onto the market by 2024. In long-distance transport in particular, battery-electric trucks only make sense from the point of view of most managers if the batteries can be almost fully charged again during the legally prescribed breaks of 45 minutes after four and a half hours of driving.
This would require fast charging stations with at least 700 kilowatts of power. However, there is nothing on the market of this magnitude, complains Martin Daum, head of the world’s largest commercial vehicle group, Daimler Truck. “Not to mention how 20 megawatts are supposed to get to a rest stop. There really is no answer to that.”
The authors of the TNO study also concede that the power grid still has to be upgraded for tens of thousands of new electric trucks. If the required investments are not made, this could “delay” the ramp-up of electric trucks. Management consultancy McKinsey estimates that a good 450 billion dollars will have to be invested in infrastructure in Europe, the USA and China. Implementation is the responsibility of the individual national states.
After all: In this country, the master plan for charging infrastructure goes to the federal cabinet on Wednesday after months of dispute between the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Transport. One of the aims is to put out an “initial charging network” to tender so that electric trucks can play “a central role” in the future.
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