President Klaus Müller in an interview

With a view to the shutdown of individual customers from industry, Müller said that the supply would be reduced “where it is necessary, the relief effects are great and the damage caused by the reduction is minimal”. However, it is not yet possible to make any determinations, but rather have to make decisions depending on the situation. “There will always be difficult decisions. And we can’t make good decisions in a shortage situation,” said Müller.

Müller is critical of the savings efforts made by private consumers to date. There have recently been more gas outflows from private consumers than had been hoped. “In view of the warm temperature and the extremely high gas prices, I was very surprised. That has to change,” said Müller. Many heaters are apparently still set as they were before the crisis. “It’s a warning signal, something urgently needs to happen,” said Müller.

Read the full interview here:

Mr. Müller, will we make it through the winter without rationing despite the lack of Russian gas supplies?
We still don’t know. We shouldn’t know about a gas shortage until it’s unstoppable. The weather, and thus private heating behavior and the situation in neighboring countries, are the decisive criteria. And all three factors are unpredictable. We are currently working on models that will enable us to give politics and business a few days’ advance warning of a gas shortage. The well-filled storage tanks allow us to buy more time to prepare for a gas shortage. However, we cannot foresee more than one and a half weeks in terms of gas consumption. This is mainly due to the weather forecast.

In what form could the lack of gas occur?
I reckon with waves: there are gas shortages, they go, they come back, they appear here and there, possibly also throughout Germany. I cannot give a serious prognosis as to where the risk of a shortage is greatest. Cold periods can occur everywhere in Germany. If we get a very cold winter, we have a problem.

Doesn’t the current save give a false sense of security, and the chances of going out of gas are a lot higher than most people think?
That is correct in principle. At the moment it is warm, we managed to store gas every day in August and September, although gas has not been supplied via Nord Stream 1 for a long time. This puts us a good ten percentage points above plan.

Isn’t it time to give the market a signal by reselling stored gas?
Yes. We have said clearly that the gas holders will be filled and then emptied again when the time comes. Part of the gas is even now being sold on the futures market. This gives the market certainty that the stored gas will be returned to the market. That should also bring prices down.

>> Also read here: According to the study, Germany could survive the winter without Russian gas

In contrast to the general conditions such as the weather, you can definitely influence gas consumption in Germany. How far are we in saving?
There is still a lot of work ahead. Industrial consumption fell by 22 percent in August. This was achieved through technical innovations and the switch to other energy sources, but also through hard production stops and the associated loss of value. Industry is contributing what we have asked of them. If this continues, it will help prevent even worse damage from forced reductions.

And the citizens?
We can’t see that much in private households because the heating season is just beginning. However, there have already been more outflows in the past few days than I had hoped. In view of the warm temperature and the extremely high gas prices, I was very surprised. That needs to change.

How do you explain the fact that many Germans are apparently already turning up the heating?
The only way I can explain it is that people haven’t bothered about it yet. Owners, tenants and housing associations still have the heaters set the way they were last fall. Above a certain temperature, the heaters come on in the morning. This is a warning sign, something urgently needs to be done.

Who is to blame for people neglecting to adjust this?
Guilt is not a category for me. I’m concerned with how things can be done better. It is correct that the Federal Ministry of Economics is continuing its information campaign on saving energy. The energy suppliers and consumer centers also want to provide information again.

If all of this doesn’t help, can you finally tell us which company would then turn off the gas first?
We still invest most of our time in avoiding a gas shortage. Nevertheless, we are of course preparing for the worst possible case. The following still applies: Protected consumers, including private households, are supplied with gas as a priority. In view of the good storage status, we should also be able to cover the vital needs today. If we have to reduce the companies, we will do so where it is necessary, the relief effects are great and the damage caused by the reduction is minimal. However, this cannot be determined in advance, but must be decided depending on the situation.

>> Also read here: What you as a consumer need to know about the gas shortage in autumn

What information would you use to make decisions about who gets how much gas?
It depends largely on the situation in the networks. We have a lot of data on this. From October 1st, we will also have a digital platform with data on the situation of the 2,500 largest consumers, which is 64 percent of industrial gas consumption. The companies can then transmit their gas requirements to us on a daily basis.

To what extent can you minimize damage from rationing by having this information?
Comparatively much. Through the discussions and analyzes of the past few months, which are now culminating in the platform, we have learned a great deal about the interdependencies between companies. There was probably no trade association that didn’t visit us here in Bonn. But it is also clear that we cannot even halfway replace a market economy model. There will always be difficult decisions. And we cannot make good decisions when there is a shortage.

The EU Commission has now made it possible to define certain industrial sectors as protected in addition to private consumers. Will you make use of it?
Yes, we will protect the manufacturers of essential supplies. We are still working on the definition of who exactly will be included.

Do you see the risk that companies will hold back on saving gas because the criteria for possible rationing are still not clearly defined?
We have promised that we want to take savings that have already been made into account. Anyone who has already saved gas should not suffer any disadvantage. Anything else would be counterproductive.

From October you want to start auctions for the industry. Businesses can then offer their gas and ask for a fee if they don’t. How much will that bring?
The decisions about the use of gas that we as a network agency can make are always worse than those that the companies can make themselves. I therefore very much hope that the economy will get involved with the new model that we have designed together with Trading Hub Europe GmbH as a balancing energy product.

When will the auctions take effect?
Only when there are signs of a gas shortage does the model come into its own. Then companies will come back to it in larger numbers because they say: Before the miller starts shutting down or ordering reductions, let’s see what we can do ourselves.

>> Also read here: Industry warns of massive damage from short-term gas shutdowns

You also have to keep an eye on the fact that the power supply remains stable. The situation is tense, so far only two additional coal-fired power plants have been connected to the grid. Does that worry you?
In spring you will be much smarter about how to master the second critical winter of 2023/24. Of course, our expectation was that the coal-fired power plants would be connected to the grid more quickly. We heard from the industry where the obstacles lay. The fact that the Rhine and other rivers now have such low water levels and the transport of coal is severely impaired has developed into an aggravating factor. This made life difficult for everyone involved. In principle, however, everything has been set in such a way that all coal-fired power plants that we still need go back online or stay connected. And we also expect that more power plants will be connected to the grid again.

Let’s talk about the hotly debated topic of nuclear power. What conclusions did you draw from the stress test of the four transmission system operators?
Exactly the same as the federal government. The security of supply is good. But it can happen under very adverse conditions that we experience a problem with grid stability, which is due in large part to the situation in France.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck wants two of the three remaining German nuclear power plants to go into reserve. The Federal Network Agency will then decide whether they will be used. Are you prepared for this?
This is standard practice for us. The Federal Network Agency monitors the network stability anyway.

How useful are power plants that take eight days before they can be connected to the grid again?
You are very helpful. We will know in December whether the situation in France remains critical. Or whether the situation in Poland is still tense. We will evaluate the situation based on such factors, eight days in advance is not a problem.

Mr. Müller, thank you very much for this interview.

Julian Olk and Klaus Stratmann asked the questions.

More: Gas storage tanks are filling up faster than expected