With the deadline for a potential TikTok sale approaching, uncertainty looms over the platform’s future in the U.S. The Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on a congressional mandate for sale could determine whether TikTok remains operational. If banned, the app could still be accessed via VPNs, while ongoing discussions about ownership involve figures like Elon Musk and Frank McCourt. Amidst these developments, creators are diversifying to other platforms, anticipating potential disruptions in TikTok’s availability.
As the Deadline Approaches, TikTok’s Future in the U.S. Remains Uncertain
With just five days left until the deadline for the potential sale of TikTok, questions linger about the social media platform’s future in the United States. Remarkably, TikTok could continue to exist even if its parent company, ByteDance, does not proceed with a sale.
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Supreme Court’s Role in TikTok’s Fate
A significant portion of TikTok’s destiny hinges on the Supreme Court’s decision. The company has urgently requested the court to block a law enacted by Congress in April, which currently mandates a sale. During a recent hearing, several justices appeared to resonate with national security concerns expressed by Congress, particularly regarding the potential misuse of American user data by the Chinese government.
We anticipate a ruling from the Supreme Court very soon, possibly within this week.
Potential Outcomes: Ban or Bypass?
If a ban is imposed, the U.S. government would need to instruct mobile app stores to remove TikTok from their platforms. This would render the app unavailable for download. While users who already have the app installed could still access it, they would be unable to receive updates, leading to significant usability issues over time.
Given that TikTok remains operational outside the U.S., American users might resort to VPNs (Virtual Private Networks) to bypass geographical restrictions and access the app.
In an internal memo referenced by The Verge, TikTok reassured its employees that its offices would remain operational even if the situation is unresolved by January 19, the deadline for transferring ownership of the app.
On the other hand, the future enforcement of this law will depend on the new administration and particularly the actions of incoming Attorney General Pam Bondi. With Donald Trump expressing a desire to retain TikTok, she may opt for a more lenient approach, potentially allowing the platform to stay active.
Sale Speculations and Market Dynamics
Currently, ByteDance is resistant to selling its prized asset. However, reports from Bloomberg suggest that the Chinese government may consider a buyout proposal from Elon Musk, who is already the majority owner of another social media platform, X (formerly Twitter), and has ties to Trump. TikTok has dismissed these rumors as “pure fiction.”
Other contenders for acquisition include businessman Frank McCourt, who has rallied investors around his Project Liberty initiative, aimed at enhancing user security on TikTok. McCourt, who also owns the French football club Olympique de Marseille, values TikTok US at approximately $20 billion. Additionally, former Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick has shown interest, as noted by The Information.
As discussions about potential server relocations arise, the technical challenges of executing such a split are under scrutiny, as no similar precedents exist. The potential shutdown of TikTok in the U.S. could significantly benefit its competitors, particularly YouTube (with Shorts) and Instagram (with Reels), which have been expanding their short video offerings in recent years.
Amidst these developments, many content creators have already started diversifying their presence across multiple platforms, recognizing the early signs of TikTok’s vulnerability—issues that date back nearly five years to the initial Trump administration. Previously, TikTok’s survival was ensured by court rulings that halted the enforcement of an executive order that would have forced a sale.
Recently, creators have also turned to the Chinese app Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), which could face similar scrutiny from U.S. authorities for reasons akin to those affecting TikTok.