Poland’s exit from the EU would be “even more disastrous than Brexit”

Berlin, Warsaw “Polish economy” was once a dirty word. In the meantime it has become the term for an extraordinary and almost unnoticed economic success: Poland’s GDP has more than doubled since joining the EU in 2004. The growth rates were higher than those of Germany every year.

But now dark clouds are gathering on the Vistula and Oder: The “Polexit” is being brought into play more and more often – Poland’s departure from the European Union. There are two main reasons for this: The frustration of the largest Eastern European economy in the EU with Brussels and the anger of the Western EU countries with Warsaw’s increasingly anti-democratic course.

There could soon be a showdown between Warsaw and Brussels. Because on Thursday, Poland’s constitutional court could pass a judgment in which Polish law would be placed above EU law. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki had submitted a judgment of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to the Warsaw court for examination.

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In it, the top EU judges had found that EU law can force member states to disregard individual provisions in national law, even if it is constitutional law. The ECJ wants to overturn the controversial Polish judicial reform, which would make the judiciary an appendage to the executive.

EU “like the German occupiers in World War II”

Prime Minister Morawiecki and his national populist party Law and Justice (PiS) insist on making judicial decisions alone. This field is not communitized in the EU. The PiS accuses the EU of “colonialism” more and more openly and calls its actions a struggle for freedom for Poland’s sovereignty. The Warsaw Constitutional Court has postponed the verdict several times because of the explosive nature of a possible judgment.

At the same time, voices from the government faction calling for a Polexit are getting louder. “Poland fought the German occupiers in World War II. It fought the Soviet occupiers. We will also fight the Brussels occupiers ”, recently threatened PiS MP Marek Suski. His group colleague Janusz Kowalski assisted on Twitter: “It is time to weigh up whether the British way is better for Poland.”

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

Poland’s head of government does not want to be told anything about judicial issues.

(Photo: AP)

The remarks became more and more violent. Ultimately, the Political Committee, a kind of Politburo of the PiS, was forced to pass a resolution stating that Poland’s future “is clearly linked to membership in the EU. But this does not mean that we have to agree to the ongoing unattractive process of restricting the sovereignty of the member states. “

The end of the Polexit detonation is still not: Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro railed against the EU almost every day. He is the inventor of the increasing control of judges and the media as well as the head of the right-wing PiS coalition partner Solidarna Polska (Solidaric Poland).

Acid test for the national populist PiS

The opposition is now putting the PiS to the acid test: a constitutional amendment is to be voted in the lower house, according to which a decision on Poland’s exit from the EU could only be decided by a two-thirds instead of a simple majority. The opposition is forcing the PiS to position itself clearly against a pole exit instead of a resolution with a parliamentary resolution – and thus also against the nationalist coalition partner.

The opposition knows that the majority of compatriots are on their side: If in 2003 76.8 percent of Poles were in favor of joining the EU, this year 89 percent are in favor of Polish EU membership. This is what a survey by the opinion research institute CBOS shows.

Protest against a possible exit from the EU

“That is why the PiS will hit the wall if it continues to escalate the dispute with the EU,” says Joanna Maria Stolarek, head of the Warsaw office of the Böll Foundation, which is close to the green. Even the creeping withdrawal of “LGBT-free zones” in Polish cities, ie places where gay, lesbian and queer people are not welcome, shows that “as soon as it comes to money, ideology takes a back seat,” said Stolarek. The EU is now refusing to make payments to such regions.

A lot of money is at stake for the biggest opponent of the Nord Stream 2 Eastern pipeline: Poland is by far the largest recipient of EU funding. With its 38 million people, the country alone will receive 75 billion euros from the so-called Cohesion Fund from 2021 to 2027. For comparison: Romania with more than 19 million people will receive 30.3 billion euros and Italy with a good 60 million people 42.1 billion euros.

In addition, double-digit billions of euros are to flow to Poland for agricultural subsidies and 58 billion euros from the EU reconstruction fund: 23.9 billion euros in grants from the EU, another 12.1 billion euros in cheap loans and another 22 billion euros in loans by 2023.

But Poland’s post-corona aid has not yet been approved by Brussels, while almost all other EU countries have already received it. This increases the EU frustration and heats up the Polexit debate. “If that takes another two or three years, the pro-European mood will change,” warns a business representative in Warsaw, who does not want to be quoted with political statements.

“Popular uprising against a Polexit”

The consequences of leaving the EU would be enormous. Because of the much closer integration of Polish companies in European supply chains and markets, “a Polexit would be even more disastrous than Brexit,” says Roch Dunin-Wąsowicz, a Polish lecturer at the London School of Economics. In contrast to Great Britain, leaving the EU is not only an economic and financial break for Poland, but also plays a “civilizing role because of its communist past”.

Therefore Ireneusz Bil expects a “popular uprising against a polexit”. The economist and director of the Amicus Europae Foundation in Warsaw sees a polexit not only as an “earthquake for the state budget” and a “slide in the direction of a right-wing autocracy”. It would also “deter foreign investors and cease business”.

In fact, EU membership is “right at the top” of the list of the most important positive location factors for the many foreign investors who have hitherto continued to strive for Poland. This is how Lars Gutheil from the German-Polish Chamber of Commerce in Warsaw describes it

More: EBRD boss: The growth in Eastern Europe remains intact

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