Pelosi expected in Taiwan – China appears to be holding ‘provocative’ military exercise

teipei In the tensions surrounding Taiwan, the chairwoman of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is expected in the democratic island republic on Tuesday, according to information from the parliament in Taipei. It would be the highest-ranking visit by a US politician to Taiwan, which Beijing’s communist leadership sees as part of the People’s Republic of China, in a quarter of a century.

With the unannounced visit to Taipei, the top politician would ignore urgent warnings from Beijing, in which possible military countermeasures were also indicated.

A Taiwanese MP confirmed to the German Press Agency in Taipei various press reports in the United States and Taiwan that Pelosi may arrive in Taipei on Tuesday evening local time from Malaysia as part of her trip to Asia. There could be a meeting with President Tsai Ingwen on Wednesday.

According to US media reports, however, the travel plan is in motion, while the Pentagon is monitoring all steps taken by the Chinese side and is working “around the clock” to ensure the security of the number three in the USA, it said.

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Targeted escalation in Beijing feared

The China expert Taylor Fravel, director of the program for security studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, does not expect a direct conflict, but rather a targeted escalation by Beijing. “The response will almost certainly involve a military component, most likely with a show of force,” he warns.

It could be target practice like last week’s maneuvers off the coast of Fujian province, across the border from Taiwan. He also thinks that the Chinese military could have a significantly stronger military presence in the Taiwan Strait, through which important shipping routes to Japan and South Korea also pass.

He does not exclude that the Chinese military also fly over the center line between the island and the mainland, which is the unofficial border of the spheres of influence, or missile tests like in 1996.

In addition, Fravel also expects economic and diplomatic punitive actions “which are probably mainly aimed at Taiwan”. Taiwan is particularly economically dependent on the huge market in the Middle Kingdom. Around 60 percent of Taiwanese exports go to the People’s Republic of China.

A Beijing backlash “could stretch for days if not weeks, but would likely begin after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan,” Fravel expects.

His conclusion: “The aim will be to underline the determination without triggering an escalation.” However, the military expert warns that the emphasis on the military component increases the risk that the tense situation will escalate further by mistake or misunderstanding. Because the US Navy has also significantly increased its presence in the region to secure Pelosi’s trip and as a sign to China.

China appears to be holding military exercises

China insiders say Pelosi is flexing his muscles ahead of an expected trip. Several Chinese warplanes were spotted near the border line in the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

Several Chinese warships have also been patrolling near the unofficial buffer zone in the strait since Monday. Both the Chinese warships and the planes touched the center line of the waterway. The maneuver is unusual and “very provocative”. Taiwan has dispatched planes to monitor the situation. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense initially did not respond to a request for comment.

The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense had previously increased the combat readiness from Tuesday morning to Thursday noon, the island’s official central news agency reported, citing unnamed sources. Three people familiar with Pelosi’s Asia trip told Reuters news agency that the US leader would arrive in Taiwan on Tuesday and stay overnight.

Should Pelosi actually travel to Taiwan, the US top politician will probably also meet with the Vice President of Parliament, Tsai Chi-chang, and members of the Legislative Council in Taipei, the Taiwanese parliamentarian reported to the dpa. Parliament leader You Shyi-kun was prevented because he was in quarantine after a trip abroad. The Democrat’s visit would be the highest-ranking US visit to Taiwan since her former Republican predecessor, Newt Gingrich, in 1997.

China’s head of state and party leader Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden in a telephone call last Thursday before the visit: “Those who play with fire will perish.”

From the point of view of the Chinese leadership, Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic, although it was already governed independently before it was founded in 1949. The island, which has a population of 23 million, has long considered itself independent. With reference to its “One China Doctrine”, Beijing firmly rejects official contacts from other countries to the government in Taipei.

More: A visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taipei would have little political benefit but poses all the greater risks. The escalation potential is underestimated.

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