Berlin Olaf Scholz and the ministers do not want to make a toast when the cabinet meets on Wednesday, one year after the start of the traffic light coalition. According to one cabinet member, that would look out of place in these times of war. Otherwise, many traffic light politicians don’t necessarily feel like celebrating after the first year.
The mood among the coalition partners after the first year is too bad for that. The traffic light actually wanted to do everything differently when it took office. The SPD, the Greens and the FDP wanted to work together trustingly and without “piercing” and “dare more progress”. But the enthusiasm quickly faded. Also, but by no means only because of the Ukraine war.
“It was actually never harmonious,” says a senior government official. “The initial euphoria has given way to resignation,” states Forsa boss Manfred Güllner.
There was certainly progress – but in a completely different way than the traffic light had planned. Progress was achieved through the realignment of foreign and defense policy as a reaction to the security threat emanating from Russia, which was dramatically underestimated until the outbreak of war.
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Overall, there were many surprises in the cabinet: climbers, relegated, resurrected, general failures. The results of the most important traffic light ministers in detail:
Robert Habeck (Greens): The clipped crisis hero
Robert Habeck promised that he would now serve the people and no longer primarily pursue party interests. In fact, the Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Economics was forced to be pragmatic like no other in the traffic light coalition.
>>Read here: One year traffic light coalition – what remained of the departure
In the twelve months of his tenure, he had to break with many green principles. Lignite-fired power plants stay connected to the grid longer, the three remaining nuclear power plants are running longer than planned, and LNG terminals are being installed. Habeck himself is not above promoting Germany in Qatar. In the spring he mobilized billions to fill the natural gas storage facilities.
The truncated crisis hero.
(Photo: AP)
In addition, Habeck nationalizes energy companies and, in view of the dramatic increase in gas and electricity prices, is working on relief for the economy and consumers. A few days ago, his house published a list of projects that the ministry has been dealing with since January. It comprises 29 bills and 35 sub-legislative regulations. A record-breaking value.
However, Habeck also had to take harsh criticism after the botched gas allocation. Previously celebrated as a great crisis manager, the crash in popularity ratings followed.
Christian Lindner (FDP): The battered
It should definitely be the Federal Ministry of Finance for Christian Lindner. Accordingly euphoric, the head of the FDP started as Minister of Finance. “I would be willing to pay admission to be allowed into the Federal Ministry of Finance,” he joked at the beginning of his term.
Since then, Lindner has pushed 84 projects through the cabinet in one year of the traffic light coalition, he was responsible for 25 draft laws and took part in twelve meetings of EU finance ministers. But there are numbers in which Lindner’s performance record is not reflected as hoped: Four state elections were lost with a bang, and the FDP is currently only at five to seven percent in polls.
As Minister of Finance, Lindner had to decide things that needed to be explained at the grassroots level. The borrowing in the household turns out to be much higher than initially planned. Although Lindner made sure that the debt brake would come into effect again in the coming year, at the same time he parked new debts amounting to 360 billion euros in secondary budgets.
However, as Minister of Finance, Lindner was also able to do a lot more than the FDP could have hoped for a year ago. His Inflation Compensation Act relieves citizens of 50 billion euros, plus relief packages because of the energy crisis. At the same time, Lindner fended off coalition partners’ demands for tax increases. A year after the start of the traffic light, he still has no doubts: the choice of the finance department was the right decision.
Christine Lambrecht (SPD): The general failure
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the woman, who would rather have been Minister of the Interior, has had to carry out the “turning point” proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz – and she seems overwhelmed. From the offer of a helmet to Ukraine and her son’s helicopter flight to the unfortunate letter of request for ammunition to Finance Minister Lindner and the prematurely leaked Patriot offer to Poland – the impression was often given that Lambrecht lacked sensitivity to the magnitude of the task.
Although Lambrecht initiated the Procurement Acceleration Act, she has no vision of where she wants to go with the Bundeswehr. Time is running out.
By 2025, Germany intends to provide NATO with an operational division for the defense of the alliance. That’s what Scholz promised.
Whether Lambrecht will hold out until the end of the legislative period is an open question. Should Interior Minister Nancy Faeser run as the SPD’s top candidate in the state elections in Hesse, Lambrecht’s desired department might become available after all. And SPD leader Lars Klingbeil could become defense minister.
Hubertus Heil (SPD): The Chancellor’s support
Labor and Social Affairs Minister Hubertus Heil had to do an extra round in the mediation committee when it came to citizen income – but in the end “the biggest social reform in 20 years” can come into force on January 1st. The Minister of Labor has thus implemented a core promise of the SPD and replaced Hartz IV with a reform.
High expectations rest on the 50-year-old: He has to implement the most important projects with which the SPD campaigned. The minister from Peine in Lower Saxony has already delivered the minimum wage, a first pension package and the basic income.
The Chancellor’s support.
(Photo: IMAGO/Christian Spicker)
For the reform of the immigration of skilled workers, which Heil is also responsible for, the cabinet has at least already passed the key points.
Among the rather disappointing squad of SPD ministers, Heil is the big positive exception – and thus Scholz’ support.
Karl Lauterbach (SPD): The disenchanted
Very few had expected Karl Lauterbach to be Minister of Health. He wanted to end the pandemic, he promised when he took office – and it looks like it. The winter wave has been mild so far. However, Lauterbach wants to stick to the few remaining measures, such as the obligation to isolate infected people.
His corona policy has not brought him popularity. In the political barometer, Lauterbach is steadily declining. The fact that he was unable to enforce compulsory vaccination, mainly because of resistance in his coalition, was the major political defeat in his first year in office.
(Photo: IMAGO/Jürgen Heinrich)
Lauterbach is now rushing to tackle the healthcare crises that the pandemic has masked. He wants to modernize the ailing hospital landscape with the “biggest reform in 20 years”. The statutory health insurance companies are similarly ailing. Lauterbach had promised a financial reform for this year, but it turned out to be a hodgepodge of smaller measures.
The big hit should come next year. Critics already see another legislature without urgently needed reforms. It is still too early for such a judgement. But: Lauterbach has to deliver now.
Annalena Baerbock (Green): The resurrected
Tangible successes are difficult to achieve in foreign policy. Annalena Baerbock also faced this challenge when she took up the post of Foreign Minister a year ago. Many were skeptical at first, but their behavior convinced their critics, especially at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis.
Although words are often weighed heavily in diplomacy, Baerbock has often spoken plainly on the international stage. With the exception of the criticism from China, she is not only popular abroad – she also seems to strike a chord with German voters. In the most recent ZDF political barometer, she again performed best of all top politicians.
The broad approval of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva at the end of November for a resolution against Iran, for which Baerbock had campaigned, is considered a success of her term of office so far. However, critics complain that beyond big words there is still not enough support for the protesters in Iran from Germany.
Another important topic for the Green politician is climate foreign policy. There, too, successes are few and far between. After all: At the world climate conference, the participants agreed for the first time on a common pot of money to compensate for climate damage in poorer countries – Baerbock had personally campaigned for this.
Volker Wissing (FDP): The prevented
Volker Wissing did not expect to encounter so many problems as Minister of Transport: The country’s infrastructure is in a desolate state, and progress is difficult to achieve given the lengthy planning process.
Wissing was able to shake up the local transport industry with the nine-euro discount ticket that was born out of necessity.
The expectations of Germany’s first digital minister were even higher. The traffic light in the coalition agreement had announced a lot to advance the lame digitization. But on the digital political credit side, there are mainly announcements. Although Wissing was able to force the ministries to outline their projects in the digital strategy in August, little has been implemented so far. There was also a lot of criticism of the strategy itself: too few visions, too little foresight.
Wissing’s biggest shortcoming: Despite his title as digital minister, he has hardly anything in his hands when it comes to digital policy. The big projects are in the hands of Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (administrative modernization) or Economics Minister Robert Habeck (start-up funding).
Klara Geywitz (SPD): The helpless
Actually, the traffic light coalition wanted the big breakthrough in construction, housing and urban development policy. 400,000 new climate-friendly homes should be built each year, 100,000 of them publicly funded. A separate building ministry was even created for this purpose. The head of the department: the social democrat Klara Geywitz.
But Geywitz is not only far away from 400,000 new apartments. Worse: In view of the enormously rising energy, material and construction prices, there is a risk of declining completion figures. The rising interest rates on loans make financing burst. In addition, households are at risk of getting into serious trouble due to rising heating costs.
Geywitz himself tries to keep calm. Compared to other houses, the newly founded Ministry of Construction is not the loudest, but works pragmatically through its extensive to-do list, item by item. In Geywitz, the tenants have an advocate for the heating cost subsidy I and II, for a higher housing allowance, for landlords to participate in the CO2 price. So far, however, she has failed to provide the promised clarity about the funding options for new construction – to the annoyance of the industry.
More: The progress fairy tale – the balance of a year traffic light coalition