But one thing is already certain: Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet needs the Greens and the FDP as a coalition partner if he wants to move into the Chancellery. SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has to form an alliance with the Greens and the FDP or Left Party.
Before the election, no one decided on any coalition. But on election night, voters can finally look behind the facade, at least take a look behind it. It’s like peeling off a slide and finally realizing the real intentions. The tactics come to an end. Then it comes to power in the country. There are many surprises on election evenings.
There is only one small delicacy, as the then BDI boss Hans-Olaf Henkel wanted to congratulate Gerhard Schröder on his election victory in the Lower Saxony state representative office in 1998. In the election campaign he had made the front against a coalition led by the SPD. Shortly after the polling stations closed, he had to seal himself against the future chancellor, and Schröder performed him according to all the rules of the art.
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Alliances are forged or prevented on election evenings. Today, communication among top people has become even more direct thanks to cell phones and WhatsApp messages. But there are still small groups that meet late in the evening and are also joined by top people. The minutes in these crucial hours, however, provide for a few fixed points.
Most of the time, the praesidia, i.e. the top bodies of the parties, meet at 4 p.m. There are already so-called exit polls. These are not forecasts yet. But the trend is already clear. These figures are of course not available to the public as the polling stations do not close until 6 p.m. In these rounds there is an agreement on the first language regulations, how the result should be communicated to the outside world.
Perhaps one or the other short message goes beyond party lines. But there is still no talk. If a party feels that it is the winner of the election, the top candidate goes in front of the cameras and supporters early on. If the election result is unsatisfactory or unclear, the general secretary or other loyal followers are sent. Then the elephant round comes at 8:15 p.m., and then things can get down to business.
In the elephant round, it’s time to get down to business
It really got down to business in 2005. The testosterone-charged appearance of the then Federal Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is unforgettable. He told the ailing CDU chairwoman Angela Merkel that she should leave the church in the village. He asked how Merkel found out that his SPD would elect her as Chancellor. The result is known.
There are still several versions of why Schröder performed like that back then. Some say it was due to the adrenaline. Schröder almost caught up with Merkel in a brilliant chase. Hardly anyone except him had expected that. A verbal argument with the ZDF editor-in-chief Nikolaus Brender is said to have been to blame that Schröder could not hold back.
Finally, there is the version that he received traffic light signals from the Rhineland-Palatinate SPD state chief Kurt Beck. He ruled with the FDP at the time, and it is said to have given indications that the liberals would participate in a traffic light alliance in the federal government.
Guido Westerwelle put an abrupt end to these dreams in the TV round by rigorously ruling out this constellation. With that he saved Angela Merkel during the day, because the CDU grandees around Friedrich Merz and Roland Koch had actually already bowed their thumbs. Merkel never thanked the FDP leader. On the contrary. In 2013, she helped ensure that the Liberals were thrown out of the Bundestag. Many in the FDP and party leader Christian Lindner have noticed this.
Armin Laschet thinks of Willy Brandt
Armin Laschet will certainly also think of Willy Brandt these days. He declared himself the winner on the evening of the 1969 election, although his SPD was behind the Union. His line of argument was: The SPD is stronger than the CDU. Brandt simply calculated the CSU out. He knew the liberal Walter Scheel at his side. Helmut Schmidt and his social-liberal coalition also send their regards.
It is not known whether Laschet has already sounded out with the Greens and, above all, party leader Robert Habeck. While the Green Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock is marching tightly towards the SPD, there are strong forces among the Greens who would like to govern with the CDU.
Habeck, who forged a Jamaica coalition in Schleswig-Holstein, recently said: “The SPD was often a problem.” He sees in Baden-Württemberg how the Greens have overtaken the CDU. You also need a perspective beyond election day.
Laschet is also likely to find himself in a situation where the pressure becomes inhuman. In the CDU there are already simulation games, who could demand the resignation of the CDU chairman on election evening. The courage of the putschists is still limited.
The wires are hot on election night
No matter how the election turns out. The result of the SPD will be the surprise of the evening. Only recently, the party was bobbing at 15 percent. When the votes are counted, the hearts of the Social Democrats fly to Olaf Scholz. It’s a new feeling for him outside of Hamburg.
Less than a year and a half ago, the majority of his party friends did not even want him as chairman. His successful campaign strategy was very simple and was widely ridiculed. Election night is now his. Nobody knows what it will look like in the next few days. The party leader Saskia Esken does not always hide at the french fries stall. And party vice Kevin Kühnert is still supported by the young socialists who want a left-wing alliance.
On Sunday evening we can be prepared to hear the politicians’ usual phrases. They don’t want to anticipate the presidium, they want to analyze the result first and, moreover, they are happy about the result. But internally the wires are already getting hot, and we will probably get this first glimpse behind the facade as well.
More: The programs of the parties in the election check.