Brussels, Berlin The Chancellor wants to know, always has. Russia uses energy as a weapon, said Olaf Scholz at an economic summit this week, adding the remarkable sentence: “I was always sure that he would do that.”
This statement is so astonishing because Scholz, as Vice Chancellor of the outgoing grand coalition, had a report signed by the Federal Ministry of Economics last autumn, which classified the energy partnership with Russia as completely unproblematic.
After long internal discussions, the federal government has published the “supply security report” for the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 2. In it, the Kremlin’s strategic project is praised as a contribution to “European security of supply”, “since it enables gas supply from new fields in the Yamal Peninsula”. The old federal government brushed aside the concerns of Eastern Europeans, who warned that Germany was becoming even more dependent on Russia.
The launch of the pipeline was only stopped a few days before the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine. On February 22, two days before the start of the war, Scholz stated that he had asked the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology to take the necessary administrative steps and prevent the pipeline from being certified. “And without this certification, Nord Stream 2 cannot go into operation,” said Scholz at the time.
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The situation must now be reassessed, and “all the questions that concern us must be taken into account”. Shortly before, Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) had instructed the Federal Network Agency, which reports to him, to withdraw an originally positive certificate that would have been decisive for the outstanding certification of the pipeline. Habeck has long been an outspoken critic of Nord Stream 2.
Nord Stream 2: From today’s perspective, old reports seem unimaginable
The previous government had issued the certificate in October last year, a few days before Habeck took office. From today’s perspective, some of the statements made in the report seem untenable and were also vulnerable in autumn 2021. The report devotes a chapter to “Resilience through LNG import structures”. It states that the EU import structure for LNG is “well developed”. 91 percent of Russian pipeline imports could be offset by LNG.
Germany has long been closely behind the pipeline project, the report shows.
(Photo: Reuters)
If you add the construction of additional LNG terminals in Brunsbüttel or Stade, for example, European LNG terminal capacities are available that can even be used to exceed the Russian delivery volumes for 2020 (145 billion cubic meters).
However, the statement ignores the fact that looking at the calculated LNG import capacities of the EU is not sufficient. On the one hand, the limited pipeline capacities impose strict limits on the Europe-wide distribution of the gas.
On the other hand, the procurement of additional LNG quantities is proving to be difficult. Germany has been trying for months to open up new sources of supply. Scholz and Habeck traveled to Qatar, Canada and the USA. In the short term, however, additional LNG quantities are difficult to obtain. It will be years before production capacity ramps up.
Scholz campaigned for Nord Stream 2: solidarity among neighboring countries is in danger
The report also refers to the “solidarity mechanisms for extreme gas shortages”. Solidarity contracts protected security of supply. “In December 2020, Germany was the first EU member state to conclude the first agreement with Denmark. Others with Austria, Italy and the Czech Republic will follow within the next few months.
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In fact, the conclusion of additional solidarity agreements has proven difficult or even impossible in recent months. Because everyone lacks gas, no state wants to commit anymore.
Elsewhere, the report emphasizes that the pipeline is necessary to ensure the supply of gas from the new fields in Siberia. The “complete transport would not be possible without the additional capacities of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline based on the current framework conditions”. In addition, the pipeline increases the resilience of the European gas supply system as it provides an additional capacity buffer for peak demand.
“I was always sure that he would.” Chancellor Scholz on Vladimir Putin’s approach to using energy as a weapon
Nord Stream 2 was the most controversial energy project in recent years. It was intended to double the capacity for direct deliveries of Russian gas to Germany, but it severely strained relations with the East Europeans and the Americans. The former Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier (CDU) was responsible for the security of supply analysis. Altmaier agreed with Scholz on the decision to forward the report to the Federal Network Agency a few days before Habeck took office, as the Handelsblatt learned from members of the government at the time.
In the German economy and in the ranks of the SPD and Union, the project had many supporters. With considerable political commitment, the grand coalition tried to dissuade the USA from sanctions. The then Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed the issue personally with US President Joe Biden last summer. Scholz also accompanied the pipeline dispute on his first visit to Washington.
Russia uses energy as a weapon: parts of Nord Stream 2 destroyed
Parts of Nord Stream 2 have now been destroyed, and two weeks ago one of two strings exploded on the bottom of the Baltic Sea. The federal government suspects a targeted demolition, everything points to Russian sabotage, it is said behind closed doors. Russian President Putin has meanwhile offered to use the undamaged line for gas deliveries to Germany – knowing full well that Nord Stream 2 is dividing Europe.
Russia uses energy as a weapon, there is no longer any doubt about that. But for a long time, people in Berlin did not want to admit that, with all the far-reaching consequences, as the Nord Stream 2 report documents. Obviously not even Olaf Scholz.
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