Bangkok Wearing a neon yellow safety vest and a white safety helmet, Richard Marles inspects the place where his country wants to counter China’s growing military influence. The Osborne shipyard in the South Australian city of Adelaide is essential for the new Australian defense minister to provide an answer to the Chinese quest for supremacy in the Indo-Pacific.
New warships for the Australian Navy will soon be built here for the equivalent of around 30 billion euros. But the mega-project is just the beginning of a project of the century with which Australia wants to make up lost ground in the arms race.
If Marles has his way, the shipyard personnel will be working on an extremely complex technology that only six countries have so far – including the USA and China: Eight nuclear-powered submarines are to be built at the facility to strengthen the Australian armed forces.
Unlike diesel-powered submarines, they can remain under water undetected for months, giving them great strategic advantages. The costs are estimated at more than 100 billion euros. The government sees the plan as a good investment: What happens in the shipyard is crucial “for the future of our nation,” said Marles during his site visit in July. “Australia’s defense begins here in Osborne.”
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The major efforts that the G20 country is making to modernize its military are the expression of a clear threat analysis: Australia sees reason for concern in China’s rapidly growing military capabilities and increasingly aggressive behavior in the region. The government in Canberra now considers an armed conflict between states in the Indo-Pacific to be a serious risk.
Australia relies on technology from friendly countries
While Germany is increasing its defense budget in view of the Ukraine war, Australia is consistently trying to arm itself against the threatening superiority of the People’s Republic. But unlike in Germany, the future military prospects in Australia are already clearly recognizable. In this way, the local armaments industry is to receive a powerful boost – above all with the help of knowledge transfer through close allies.
Handelsblatt series “Defense”
Australia has access to nuclear submarine technology on the basis of an agreement that the previous government, which was voted out in May, concluded last year with the USA and Great Britain.
The three states founded the military alliance Aukus, which is considered an attempt to form a stronger counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific. Supplying Australia with high-tech submarines has so far been the most important area of cooperation.
The new Australian defense minister wants to counter the growing threat from China with more weapon systems.
(Photo: Reuters)
By March 2023, the Australian government wants to decide whether it wants to use technology from the British Astute class from the armaments company BAE Systems or the American Virginia class from the submarine builder General Dynamics Electric Boat.
From the government’s point of view, however, it is clear that they do not simply want to have the exclusive military technology delivered from abroad, but want to produce it in their own country: “For this program, it is of fundamental importance that Australia is able to transport these submarines to build it yourself,” said the Minister responsible, Marles. “It’s the only way to get the subs as soon as possible.”
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In the past, Australia’s army has relied primarily on supplies of armaments from the United States. However, security officials and military experts question whether the United States has sufficient capacity to supply Australia consistently in the event of a large-scale conflict.
“If we are serious about security, we have to strengthen our own defense industry,” says Brent Clark, head of the industry association AIDN. “It is reckless to assume that in wartime we can continue to rely on physical access to American and European suppliers.”
China is increasingly perceived as a threat
To determine exactly what capabilities are needed, the government of new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced last week a fundamental strategic review of the armed forces, which should be completed by early next year. “The context is clear,” said the head of government amid the escalation of the dispute over the island republic of Taiwan: “We live in a time when there are increasing tensions in our region and when China has taken a more aggressive stance.”
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Relations between China and Australia have deteriorated significantly in recent years. Former Defense Secretary Peter Dutton, now leader of the opposition, urged his country in April to prepare for war. A security partnership that China agreed with the Solomon Islands earlier this year raised fears in Australia of a Chinese military base in the immediate vicinity.
Angus Houston — a 75-year-old retired officer who now heads the military’s strategic review — speaks of the worst strategic situation of his lifetime.
The Australian army is to become significantly more powerful.
(Photo: IMAGO/AAP)
The previous government under Prime Minister Scott Morrision, who regularly verbally attacked the Communist Party in Beijing, had already decided on a massive expansion of Australia’s military in view of the rivalry with China and announced investments of the equivalent of 185 billion euros within a decade. He also planned to increase the number of armed forces by a third. At the end of his tenure, Morrison opted for the two US companies Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin, which are to help the country produce guided missiles in Australia.
The new government also supports the project and sees it as exemplary for its vision of future cooperation with Australia’s allies: “Our primary goal is to complement the US supply chains – not to compete with them,” said Secretary of Defense Marles during his inaugural visit in Washington. Australian guided missile production would not only serve his country’s armed forces, he promised. The USA could also stock up on weapons if necessary.
Military experts call for more speed
However, observers warn to hurry. Aside from announcements, there has been little information about advances in Australia’s guided missiles, said Malcolm Davis, a defense expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank.
From his point of view, this must change quickly: the war in Ukraine shows that a large-scale weapons depot is necessary for a high-intensity military conflict. “Australia doesn’t have the luxury of taking its time building up stocks.”
Delays are already developing into problems with other major armaments projects: the frigate program in Adelaide, which is to deliver nine new warships for anti-submarine warfare, is starting with a considerable delay and at higher costs than planned. Australia will also have to wait a long time for the nuclear submarines – there is currently talk of delivery from 2040.
The government has not yet decided whether there will be an interim solution before then to replace Australia’s aging submarine fleet. Davis warns against putting cost first in considerations: “National security and defense must come first,” he urges. “The alternative would be to accept an uncertain future.”
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