North Korea’s threat scenario – nuclear missiles can now hit USA and Europe

Tokyo It’s a bizarre performance. North Korea’s television cameras focus on Kim Jong Un, showing the ruler strolling hand in hand with his daughter on a runway. The girl has never been seen in public before. But it is not about a family outing, but a walk to his strongest military demonstration to date.

Father and daughter walk down the mobile launch pad of a 26 meter long nuclear missile. In another scene, Kim hugs his daughter and they both look at the command center screens. The monitors show a rocket rising into the sky with a fiery tail.

What people saw on North Korean state television over the weekend was no ordinary missile test — and no ordinary propaganda show by the North Korean ruler either: Kim staged the launch of a nuclear-capable Hwasong-17 ICBM that would allow North Korea, for the first time in history, the US or attack Europe directly with nuclear weapons.

There are growing fears in Washington and among international analysts that Kim could pose a massive threat to the West in the coming years with his rapid nuclear buildup.

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How unpredictable is North Korea’s ruler? Joseph Cirincione, a member of the American Council on Foreign Relations, sends words of warning to the US government. North Korea is determined to build a modern and versatile nuclear deterrent. And the dictator is well on the way to achieving his goal. “Kim’s rocketry is world class and the nuclear weapons are good enough,” says Cirincione.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense also warned before the test: “North Korea is driving the development of ballistic missiles extremely quickly and is tirelessly pursuing increasingly complex and diverse attack methods.”

Kim Jong Un

Kim uses ICBM launches for public appearances.

(Photo: dpa)

In fact, the country now has a large portfolio of missiles that can be equipped with nuclear weapons. Ankit Panda, military expert at the Washington think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaks of the fast pace of the tests. They are a sign that the manufacture of the rockets will soon reach the stage of mass production.

Above all, the long-range missiles worry the United States. North Korea’s leadership claims to be able to hit targets 15,000 kilometers away with them. That would put Europe and the entire United States within reach.

Short-range missiles with nuclear warheads

However, international military observers also believe that North Korea has miniaturized its nuclear weapons to such an extent that they now also fit on the short-range missiles tested. Experts have been warning since the beginning of the year that a test could take place at any time. Most observers are assuming a tactical nuclear weapon with a relatively low yield to prove its suitability for a war with South Korea.

>> Read also: “Stronger military responses” – North Korea tests ballistic missile again

The US disarmament expert Cirincione could also imagine testing a hydrogen bomb. They are based on nuclear fusion instead of nuclear fission and enable the construction of so-called “city killers”.

Neither diplomacy, sanctions nor military threats should be able to stop this attempt, according to the assessment of the military experts. Because North Korea’s allies China and Russia are no longer willing to oppose Pyongyang. Ian Bremmer, head of risk advisor Euroasia Group, warned: “Since Russia receives direct military support from North Korea, Kim Jong Un may see himself in the most favorable geopolitical position of his previous rule.” A seventh nuclear test, according to Bremmer, will always be in this environment more likely.

Kim, Kremlin chief Putin

The two heads of state, here an archive photo from 2019, have repeatedly demonstrated their closeness.

(Photo: dpa)

While the ICBMs are primarily aimed at the USA, neighboring Japan is worried about shorter-range missiles. In October, North Korea shot down a Hwasong-12 over Japan. Its range was 4600 kilometers, it was the longest flight of a North Korean test rocket up to that point.
Since May 2019, North Korea has also been testing new types of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) that can fly at low altitudes with irregular trajectories, the Japanese Defense Ministry said. At the same time, the military are becoming more flexible when planning their launch bases: in addition to mobile launch pads, bases on trains and submarines are also being tested. “In this way, North Korea is striving to expand its wartime capabilities,” the Japanese military said.
The KN23 missile and its related systems are proving to be “the new workhorses for the Korean People’s Army’s burgeoning precision strike capability,” according to military expert Ankit Panda. These missiles have been tested more intensively than any other in North Korea’s history and should make up for the technological lead of the United States and its allies. According to Pandas, the latest series of tests along the sea border between North and South Korea clearly show that North Korea is now testing the use of short-range nuclear missiles.

cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons

In recent years, North Korea has also strived to develop long-range cruise missiles. In the most recent test in November, a guided missile controlled by North Korea stayed in the air in curve mode for almost three hours before hitting the sea after about 2,000 kilometers. That’s enough to hit many US bases in Japan.
North Korea has also tested so-called hypersonic missiles, which can change their trajectory. Cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons would make it even more difficult for North Korea’s opponents to intercept the warheads.

More: A missile test costs several million euros – how the impoverished North Korea can finance them

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