Cape Town Long queues and queues of cars are routine in Nigeria. But before the parliamentary and presidential elections on Saturday, the West African oil state is not only suffering from a recurring shortage of petrol, but also from an acute shortage of cash – triggered by a cash reform by the government and the central bank.
The monetary crisis is another problem for the country, whose economy is primarily focused on cash. Added to this is the already very tense security situation in large parts of the country, where Islamists, separatists and criminal gangs are making it difficult for the elections to take place properly. It is also questionable whether ballot papers and staff will get to the polling stations on time at the weekend – also in view of the acute lack of fuel.
This, coupled with growing dissatisfaction with Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party, is likely to make this weekend’s polls the most hard-fought election since the country gained independence in 1960 – and possibly lead to a much higher turnout than last time, eh the Lagos-based consulting firm SBM Intelligence predicts. In 2019 it was only 35 percent.
The cash shortage has already revealed a split within the ruling APC. Her candidate, 70-year-old multi-billionaire Bola Ahmed Tinubu, believes the currency reform was engineered by opponents within the party to sabotage his election campaign.
Some of his supporters even claim that outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari, 80, who is out of office after two terms, is secretly backing Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Both come from the Fulani pastoral people and come from the bitterly poor north of the country, while Tinubu, a member of the Yoruba ethnic group, comes from the economically more successful south. However, Buhari has vehemently denied any such alliance with the opposition candidate.
Outsider is ahead in polls
All the greater is the question of whether the widespread anger and helplessness might play into the hands of outsider Peter Obi and bring him a sensational victory. The 61-year-old, as a former governor of the state of Anambra and a former member of the PDP, has long been part of the establishment. However, his small Labor Party has not yet provided a single governor in Nigeria’s states.
His small Labor Party has not yet provided a single governor in Nigeria’s states.
(Photo: AP)
Forecasts are difficult because the population has so far often cast their votes according to ethnic or religious preferences. Nonetheless, in many polls since the start of the official election campaign in October, Obi has almost consistently been ahead of the candidates of the two major parties that have ruled Nigeria since the end of long military rule in 1999.
Observers often warn that there are no guarantees that Obi will bring down Nigeria’s kleptocracy. However, he is the first and so far the only politician in decades who could push through a new style of politics in Nigeria – more modest, quieter, more transparent.
So far, after elections, politicians have always exchanged the votes they have won in their respective ethnic or religious group for position and influence. If Obi succeeds in mobilizing the many young and urban voters regardless of religion, geography and ethnicity, the election sensation predicted by some observers and polls might really be possible.
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His opponents like to mock Obi as a “social media candidate”. Its enormous popularity is fed by young Nigerians who want to replace the old and often highly corrupt political guard.
Nigeria is stagnating economically
More than two-thirds of Nigeria’s population is under the age of 30. Apparently, unlike in the past, this group registered significantly more frequently than in previous elections. In addition, his opponents argue that Obi, as a Christian from the south-east, will not get enough votes either in the populous Muslim north or in the strongholds of the opposing candidate Tinubu in the south-west, including the city of Lagos.
In order to win the election, the candidates not only need the most votes, but also at least 25 percent of all votes in two-thirds of the 36 member states. If no candidate makes it, there would be a runoff election for the first time in Nigerian history in March.
The presidential candidate is particularly popular with young Nigerians.
(Photo: dpa)
In addition to the devastating security situation, the main reason for the general disenchantment with politics in the country is that Nigeria has been stagnating not only politically but also economically for years: Between 2015 and 2020, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita fell year after year. The World Bank now expects real per capita income to drop to 1980s levels because population growth has long outstripped economic growth.
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The corona pandemic and inflation of 22 percent did not trigger this downward spiral, but accelerated it. A study released by the government in November shows that 133 million Nigerians, almost two-thirds of the population in an index that measures health, housing and education in addition to income, are poor on multiple counts. Poverty in the Muslim north was significantly higher than in the Christian south.
The World Bank’s current country study entitled “Nigeria’s choice” also leaves no doubt as to how dramatic the situation in Africa’s largest economy has become after decades of mismanagement. A worsening of the economic misery is expected here. Kayode Fayemi, the former governor of the Nigerian state of Ekiti and current President of the Forum of Regions of Africa, sees it even more dramatically: “If we don’t finally act decisively now, we may risk the country falling apart.”
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