The upcoming federal election in 2025 is overshadowed by rising violence linked to migration issues, particularly following recent attacks that have resulted in civilian casualties. Candidates are now compelled to address security and migration policies, shifting focus from economic discussions. Public sentiment reflects fear and a demand for stringent measures, benefiting far-right parties like the AfD. Meanwhile, political leaders are under pressure to respond effectively, as the election campaign progresses with historically low approval ratings for key candidates.
Upcoming Federal Election 2025
The election campaign is reaching its climax, coinciding with a troubling increase in violent incidents targeting groups of individuals. This situation compels candidates to confront a pressing issue that is gaining prominence in public discourse.
Once again, a rejected asylum seeker is identified as a suspect, and once again, children are among the casualties. This tragic event occurs just weeks before the federal election, transforming the final phase of campaigning into a critical crisis for political contenders. Parties that had anticipated focusing on economic and social matters in December now find themselves navigating a complex landscape where migration policy and security concerns dominate discussions.
During a recent ZDF program, a concerned resident from Solingen expressed her fears to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, questioning whether government officials bear moral responsibility for violent acts if no changes are implemented. This intense debate raises significant democratic and human rights concerns.
Public Sentiment: ‘We are afraid’
In Solingen, a tragic terrorist attack in August 2024 claimed three lives during a city festival, allegedly motivated by Islamist ideologies. The federal election campaign has already witnessed three similar attacks in Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg, and now Munich, occurring just ten days before the election. ARD terrorism expert Michael Götschenberg describes this as a form of ‘perceived terror.’
In response to public concerns, Chancellor Scholz emphasized the need to prioritize internal security during the ZDF broadcast. However, will this reassurance alleviate the worries of citizens?
Migration has emerged as a focal point in this election campaign, echoing the significance it held during the 2017 elections. According to the ARD Germany Trend, concerns over migration are consistently listed among the top issues for voters.
Political scientist Sabine Kropp discussed the prevalent societal demand for security and the ‘yearning for straightforward solutions.’ The far-right AfD has gained traction, currently polling at 21 percent, significantly higher than in previous elections. This latest incident may further solidify their support.
The AfD’s clear anti-migration stance has resonated with voters. Chancellor candidate Alice Weidel called for a drastic shift in migration policy, advocating for stricter border controls and the deportation of individuals required to leave, while criticizing CSU Prime Minister Markus Söder for his inaction regarding the perpetrator.
Merz: ‘Change is Necessary’
Friedrich Merz, the challenger to Chancellor Scholz and the Union’s candidate, has intensified his focus on migration issues following the attack in Aschaffenburg. He strategically courted votes from the AfD faction to secure a majority for a resolution in the Bundestag.
Recent polls indicate that this approach has not negatively impacted his party’s support, which has seen a slight increase. Merz reiterated the need for change in the country on the social media platform X just hours after the Munich attack, linking his remarks to previous campaign themes.
Despite the urgency of the situation, the approval ratings for the leading candidates remain historically low. The candidates seem compelled to respond swiftly, at least verbally. Green party leader and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck addressed the recent violence through a video message, emphasizing the necessity of a comprehensive security strategy to address existing gaps. The Greens are acutely aware of the need to project a strong stance on migration and security to avoid perceptions of complacency.
Stable Opinion Climate Expected
The Munich attack is unlikely to significantly alter the trajectory of the federal election campaign. Mail-in voting has commenced, and the proportion of undecided voters appears to be consistent with historical trends, possibly even lower.
This incident is expected to reinforce existing voting intentions, as migration has long been a key concern for voters. Election researcher Stefan Merz noted that, while tragic, the events of recent days do not represent a new reality for the public.
For detailed analyses, reports, and insights on the upcoming early federal election in February 2025, visit the relevant news platforms.
This topic was covered by Deutschlandfunk on February 14, 2025, at 3:53 PM.