When will the snake bite? Like a trembling rabbit, Germany squats before the predator Russia. Since Thursday, people have been staring at the flow rates at Nord Stream 1 with trepidation. Will gas return to 40 percent, or is it a bit more, or is it less again? Please, please no less, whimpers from politics and above all from business.
This reflex is understandable. But there is a danger that he will prevent any strategic action. That threatens to cost us dearly: as a political dependence on Russia, which would be even worse than a freeze on gas supplies. There has to be an end to the shock.
If you don’t want to use an energy embargo against Russia, which is quite understandable, there is only one lever left: the price. Proposals for this have been on the table for weeks.
Whether it’s import duty or a price cap – it doesn’t matter at first. It is important that Europe regains the initiative. And with the intervention in prices, it would gain an important lever.
Of course, such an intervention in the delivery conditions requires a lot of courage and would be a provocation that could still cause Russia’s head of state Vladimir Putin to stop the gas supply. But how great is this danger? And wouldn’t more independence be worth the higher risk?
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Putin will not even disconnect Nord Stream 1. Because with a delivery stop he would give up the reins of action and thus lose an important advantage. Only as long as he continues to deliver can he influence gas prices to his liking and use them as a weapon.
If he just wants to increase the pressure, he can threaten to turn off the gas tap completely. If a little relaxation is opportune, he simply increases the deliveries again by a few percentage points. He would give up this lever with a delivery stop.
If he still turns off the tap, the shock here would be massive, and the prices would skyrocket. But Germany and the European Union (EU) are not in such a bad shape that horrific scenarios are to be feared.
The fear of a crisis so bad that sanctions would have to be lifted immediately to appease Putin is exaggerated. Stopping deliveries would not even necessarily lead to a gas shortage.
In crisis situations, fear is often the worst advisor: if you don’t do anything, you will definitely be eaten by the snake.
Cons: We have to play along
By Juergen Flauger
There’s no question that Vladimir Putin is toying with the West. Day after day, Russia’s president will be watching with relish as we wait more and more nervously for new gas from the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
That’s annoying, but we have to play the game out of necessity. Every cubic meter of Russian gas that lands in the West gives us air. With every cubic meter, the hope grows that the gas storage tanks will reach an adequate level by the onset of winter – and that we will have enough gas available for the winter.
Of course, shutting down Putin’s last remaining source of funds would be appealing. And, of course, the gas imports contrast with the sanctions imposed by the Europeans over Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
But the situation on Europe’s energy market is dramatic, especially in Germany. We still haven’t secured enough gas to get us through the winter. Companies are increasingly adjusting to having to cut production. The consequences for growth, jobs and supply chains are likely to be devastating.
Consumers are already hoarding firewood and emptying the electric heating market. Gas and electricity prices have already multiplied. Many consumers will get a shock from their energy bills, many companies will have their profits eaten up.
The situation is dramatic. However, every cubic meter of gas that we can secure for the winter can alleviate the drama a little. On the other hand, it would be impossible to convey to the people and the economy that the West would do without Russian gas.
The only decisive factor is that we don’t just secure the gas from Russia. We also have to work on other gas sources under high pressure, especially liquefied gas LNG. That is also being worked on.
At the same time, we must do everything we can to reduce gas consumption. Starting up old coal-fired power plants was painful, but it was the right thing to do. And if the operation of the remaining three nuclear power plants can be intelligently extended beyond the end of the year until spring, that doesn’t really call the nuclear phase-out into question. In addition, every single citizen can make his contribution if he uses energy sparingly.
Yes, Putin can still play with us, and he has great potential for blackmail. But hopefully not for much longer.
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