The next disaster is already foreseeable: the war in and around Mali. Since 2012/13 it has been carried out amateurishly and without any political or military strategy. Not only from the Merkel governments, but internationally under the leadership of France.
As is well known, the war in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021 was carried out in a similarly amateurish way by the United States and Germany and others. The crazy idea of converting Afghanistan into a western democracy came primarily from the SPD-Green coalition Schröder / Fischer in Germany.
The actual aim or purpose of the Mali War, as it was in Afghanistan, made perfect sense. The means by which this end was to be achieved were unsuitable because: There was no strategy, that is, a well-thought-out political plan.
The aim or purpose of the Mali war from a German and European point of view, with the approval of the UN, is to prevent the Islamists from taking power in the Sahel zone, i.e. beyond Mali in the neighboring countries.
Some think: That could leave us cold, especially since it happens far away. Wrong, because: Migrants from southern Africa have to pass through this region if they want to join us in Europe. And that’s what millions of people want, around a third of young Africans, say serious surveys. Even with the best will, we can and will never accept so many with us. That would endanger our own social and economic situation. The migrants come from one misfortune to the next. And we with them.
What’s next in Mali?
If the Islamists seize power in Mali and the Sahel region, we would be vulnerable to blackmail by those terrorists. You could turn the “migrant tap” on and off at will. Your expected murderous regime would also increase the flow of refugees.
From this point of view, it is correct that France and Germany in particular are participating in the UN mission in Mali. They provide most of the soldiers and bear the brunt of the burden. The use of these soldiers is life-threatening. That alone is bad. Worse still, the way it has been done so far will only get worse. How did it come about, what needs to be done and what is now emerging? The answer is: Russia, that is Putin, is apparently intervening.
Before you can answer, you have to know the general conditions of the Mali mission. The Touareg in north-western Mali have been disadvantaged by the central government for a long time. In their struggle against this, the Touaregs, who had missed out, allied themselves with Islamists and began a campaign. They were on the verge of coming to power in 2012. France wanted to prevent that first, and rightly so. Firstly, in December 2012, it secured political support from the UN and, secondly, military support from willing allies. Germany is one of these.
The initially purely French, conventionally led military counter-offensive ended successfully after a few weeks. But, like in Afghanistan, that was the beginning of the guerrilla war of the Touaregs and Islamists, which continues to this day. Like the Afghan Taliban, they withdrew across the borders into Mali’s neighboring countries.
Since then, guerrilla raids on the international troops and the Mali army have started there and from there. But they also attack civilians and the military in neighboring countries. France’s soldiers stationed there could not prevent this. This is why Mali’s neighbor, the Central African Republic (CAR), has been bringing Russian mercenaries into the country for some time. Your mission, approved by the ZAR government and Putin: brutally eliminate the brutal Islamists. Tit for tat.
Gradually, Touareg, dissatisfied neighbors and the Islamists are gaining ground. In Mali itself and in the Sahel region as a whole. They gain support by using the ethnic and religious conflicts in Mali and elsewhere for their goals. The Islamist guerrillas work closely together across borders and are gradually destroying the state structure throughout Mali and the Sahel zone.
France has bases throughout the region. Without success, because even world powers can never actually defeat guerrillas. See the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan, see the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Of all things, the weak Bundeswehr should turn things around in Mali and the neighborhood? French President Macron is currently rethinking this policy and is tending to withdraw.
Now Putin is sending his mercenaries
The failure of France, Germany and their partners has now also recognized Mali’s government. That is probably why she turned to Putin, who likes to send his mercenaries and is now also eliminating the West in this part of the world.
Even without Putin’s mercenaries, Germany should have left Mali long ago, because while French, German and other soldiers from around 30 countries were killed in the fight against Islamists, Mali’s “army” staged a coup d’état over and over again. Is this what Germany is aiming for in the “stabilization” of Mali and the region? Absurd, unacceptable, we make a fool of ourselves.
Even worse: Even before the Putin deal with Mali, information was gathering that the military coup plotters in power in Mali were negotiating with the Islamists about power stakes. And the federal government? A few weeks ago, she nevertheless extended her mission to Mali until May 2022. That was the reason: “The political stabilization of Mali and the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region are of central importance for the security of the international community and for Germany.”
The SPD-led federal government told us something similar in 2002: Germany’s freedom was being defended in the Hindu Kush. Putin and his mercenaries are now taking over that “stabilization” and the fight against terrorism. Lo and behold: our Federal Defense Minister woke up. The cooperation between Mali and Russia calls into question the foundations of the previous order, she says and threatens with “consequences”. It’s about time – with and without Putin. He too will fail in Mali and the Sahel region. You cannot defeat guerrillas militarily.
What should be done? Militarily, the international “peace” force cannot win the guerrilla war against Touareg and the Islamists. This is a lesson to be learned after the Vietnam War and the Afghan War. There remains a political solution. Their motto: Peace through Federalism. The Touaregs and other ethnic or linguistic we groups should each have their own federal states.
The previously unfairly centralized Republic of Mali would be transformed into a Federal Republic of Mali. Something similar would have to happen in the other Sahel countries. All of them are artificial structures that arose after decolonization without taking age-old ethnic, linguistic or religious factors into account. Those traditional ties were arbitrarily broken. Now “what belongs together” wants to grow together. In and between the states of the Sahel region, including and not just Malis.
Our soldiers are still in Mali. France, Germany and the other troop-contributing states could still demand this condition for their whereabouts. To make peace. A peace that the Islamists would “dry out” because they would no longer encounter “love” in return with the Touaregs and other people who were neglected and discontented. For the Africans, who have so far been threatened by everyday life-threatening lives within Africa, who are economically impoverished and impoverished, there would then no longer be any reason to leave their homeland and set off for a climatically cold and cold-hearted Europe
It cannot go on as before. It is high time to bring home the soldiers of France and Germany, as well as all other senseless soldiers. For the time being, they should only remain as a temporary protective power of a new, federal peace order. This would degrade the terrorists.
Putin will learn it too. But why have our politicians still not understood it since 2001?
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Prof. Dr. Michael Wolffsohn, historian and publicist; “Glückskinder” also as a book for young people; for his federalism model “For World Peace”.
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