Macron promises more social justice and purchasing power aids

Outside, in the business district on the outskirts of Paris, the office towers soar into the gray sky. Inside, pyro fountains erupt on the stage as Macron weaves his way through the cheering crowd. The atmosphere is somewhere between a party convention, a large discotheque and a boxing match in Las Vegas.

Not only is it Macron’s first major campaign appearance, it is also the president’s only mass rally ahead of next Sunday’s first round of voting. And obviously he wants to use this opportunity to generate enthusiasm for his re-election. Because of the war in Ukraine, Macron has focused on the role of head of state in recent weeks, leaving little time for the campaign.

However, the growing support for the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen worries the President and his team. A second term by Macron seems less certain than it was a few weeks ago.

Macron warns of the “forces of division”

The key question in the first round on April 10 and the runoff two weeks later is “simple,” says Macron. “It’s about the fight between progress and isolation, the fight between patriotism and Europe against the nationalists.” The President does not name his opponents, but warns of the “forces of division”.

Their victory in the presidential election is by no means impossible, he said – and cites the example of Brexit, which nobody expected either. Macron is targeting the centre-left in particular, which is increasingly questioning the left-liberal label he attached to himself in 2017.

The main risk factor seen in Macron’s team is low voter turnout. In the regional elections last summer, only around a third of those eligible to vote went to the polls. Even if that’s not a benchmark for a presidential election in France, in the end too many potential Macron voters could stay at home – either out of certainty of victory or out of a mixture of disinterest and disillusionment.

For a long time, the president at least publicly ignored the election campaign, although nobody really doubted his ambitions for another term in office. He only made his candidacy official shortly before the end of the application period in early March. Macron justified his reluctance by saying that he was fully challenged as head of state because of the war in Ukraine and the consequences for France and Europe.

Initially, Macron also benefited from the status of crisis manager in the polls. But shortly before the election, pollsters see a new dynamic. When Macron warns his supporters of a possible defeat, it’s more than just scaremongering.

The France that greeted the President with a Laola wave at the Arena La Défense on Saturday shows only a part of society. During his tenure, hundreds of thousands took to the streets against Macron, in the yellow vest movement against expensive fuel prices or in demonstrations against the Corona rules.

Opponents criticize Macron as “president of the rich and advocate of globalized elites”

According to the latest polls, Le Pen and right-wing nationalist Éric Zemmour would receive more votes than Macron in the first round. The candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon also has a tailwind with his left-national program.

>> Read also: Elections in France: These candidates are fighting for the presidency

Macron’s opponents see his pro-European stance as the end of the French nation, and his immigration policy at times as cultural suicide. For them, his reform ideas for the economy and social systems, such as tax cuts or raising the retirement age, are neoliberal ideology. Macron, president of the rich and advocate of the globalized elite – this motif exists in different forms on the right and left margin.

This perception is fueled in the final phase of the election campaign by an investigative report by the Senate: the upper house of the French parliament criticized the increasing use of external expertise by the government. Government spending on consulting firms has skyrocketed under Macron. The US company McKinsey, in particular, has benefited, having also found ways not to pay taxes in France over the past ten years.

Le Pen plays the controversy over the consulting firms into the cards: “Who really governs France?” whispers the candidate of the Rassemblement National in Stiring-Wendel. The small town is located directly behind the German-French border near Saarbrücken in a former mining region that is struggling with structural change.

When Le Pen performs at a cultural center on Friday evening, there are neither fireworks nor Laola waves. After the speech, a bar opens in the anteroom, and some of the listeners lean against the white standing tables with a beer in their hands. The office towers of La Défense are far away in Stiting-Wendel.

Le Pen promises: “I will be the president of everyday life”

In her speech, Le Pen focused on socio-political issues such as securing purchasing power in times of inflation. “I’m going to be the president of everyday life,” she says. Le Pen completely ignores the Ukraine war – after all, not too long ago she was still trying to get close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The party, formerly known as the Front National, is more moderate. The right-wing populists have weakened their choice of words in relation to the EU or when dealing with immigrants, especially from Muslim countries. However, her policy is still based on a core promise that the candidate formulated in Stiring-Wendel, less than 500 meters from the German border: “We will give the French their country back – and that’s about time.”

The polls for possible duels in the second round are still not very reliable. But the gap between Macron and Le Pen, which was more than 30 percentage points in the runoff five years ago, is apparently shrinking noticeably. A survey published a few days ago for the newspaper “Le Parisien” and the radio station “France Info” saw Macron at only 53 percent and Le Pen at 47 percent.

The President is now also increasingly taking up the issue of purchasing power: at his rally on Saturday, Macron recalled that his government had already spent more than 20 billion euros on capping gas and electricity prices. He also enabled employees to receive a tax and duty-free purchasing power premium from their company. In the event of his re-election, he will triple the upper limit for this bonus to up to 6,000 euros.

More: These are Emmanuel Macron’s competitors.