Vienna The oppression in Belarus was mostly seen abroad as an “internal matter and held back,” says the Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya. One could see that as cynical, but that no longer matters. “The Europeans have to understand that Lukashenko only understands the language of strength,” says Tichanovskaya.
The Belarusian President is now feeling pressure from several quarters: from within, from Europe and from Russia. “That’s why he uses dirty means to stay in power.”
According to the opinion of the opposition, Lukashenko wanted to blackmail the EU with organized smuggling. “Lukashenko was sure that he could force top European politicians to talk to him again, to break his diplomatic isolation.” And: “He wanted to split the EU because it disagreed on migration policy.” succeded. She calls for more targeted sanctions against the regime in Minsk.
Ms. Tichanovskaya, how is the Belarusian opposition doing over a year after the mass protests and your going into exile?
Alexander Lukashenko has little popular support. He suppresses your desire for change by force. The situation is very difficult: 2,000 to 3,000 of our people are in prison, there is an atmosphere of fear.
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In response to the repression, the EU issued four packages of sanctions. Did these make a difference?
Those against persons of the regime are of no use who are targeting sanctions, the economy and business people, even more. Unfortunately, there are many loopholes that still allow important products to be traded. If you close them and target the banks, the regime will feel it.
In response to the migration crisis brought about by Lukashenko on the border with Poland, there are to be further coercive measures. Is it sobering for you that the EU only acts decisively when it is itself affected?
Domestic oppression was mostly seen abroad as an internal matter and was held back. You can see that as cynical, but it doesn’t matter anymore. Europeans have to understand that Lukashenko only understands the language of strength. He feels pressure from within, from Europe and from Russia. That is why he uses dirty means to stay in power.
What does Lukashenko want to achieve with the state-organized smuggling of people from the Middle East?
Lukashenko wanted to blackmail the EU. Human lives mean nothing to him, but he knows that they mean something to Europeans. Lukashenko was sure that he could force top European politicians to talk to him again, to break his diplomatic isolation. And he wanted to split the EU because it disagrees on migration policy.
Was he successful?
Only partially. He has drawn attention away from the political prisoners to the border. But Poland has remained tough, Brussels has spoken out in favor of humanitarian aid to stranded people and put pressure on airlines and the countries of origin to close routes and return migrants. The EU does not speak directly to illegitimate President Lukashenko.
Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to him twice on the phone. Did she break the united front?
The conversations caused unrest among our people because they feared that a backroom deal would be made here. But Berlin assured me that there were no hidden agreements.
Has Merkel upgraded Lukashenko diplomatically?
No, because it was not about diplomatic recognition, but about improving the humanitarian situation and de-escalation. Still, such actions should not become the norm.
Lukashenko claims that Germany is ready to accept 2,000 migrants. Would that be desirable for relaxation?
No. The migrants have to be cared for and an offer to return home. Germany does not want to and should not accept them – for good reason: Lukashenko would be encouraged to use migration as a weapon. Since he also earns money with it, it would become a constant threat.
Does he still control the situation at the border?
Not really. The regime knows that the migrants cannot cross the border, but it cannot bring them back to Minsk either. That is why they are kept in constant motion.
How do the Belarusians react to the presence of the people from the Middle East?
My compatriots would be willing to live with them. But they see Interior Ministry troops intervening brutally in political demonstrations while encouraging migrants to attack border fortifications. This unequal treatment makes them angry – but not at the migrants, but at the regime.
How do you see the role of the Kremlin? This does not seem to unconditionally support Lukashenko’s escalation course, including the threat to cut gas transit to Europe.
Yes, Lukashenko has become too toxic even for the Russians. They fear damage to their business interests, for example if Poland closes the border. Lukashenko has lost his maneuvering space between east and west. The Kremlin wants to take advantage of this weakness, but has no clear strategy. The situation therefore remains very volatile.
Lukashenko was recently asked to speak to the opposition from Moscow. Did you mean you?
I’m not sure. The Russians play their own game and have their own people up their sleeves. That was less of a sign to us than to Lukashenko. The Russians signaled to him that they have alternatives.
Are there withdrawals in the regime?
There is a narrow circle in the security forces and the most important ministries who bear so much responsibility for Lukashenko’s crimes that he remains loyal to him to the end. But business people close to the regime fear that they will lose everything. Lukashenko is afraid of this betrayal, which is why he is constantly reorganizing his environment.
Is he still acting rationally?
No. Psychologically, he is in bad shape and knows that he is no longer supported. He can’t accept that. Early elections would be the only way out, but he is reluctant to do anything. So we have to keep up the pressure and force it to.
More: Von der Leyen warns: Belarus is trying to destabilize the EU