Layoffs are threatened in industry and trade

Shopping street in Cologne

The consumer reluctance to buy due to the crisis is causing retailers to think about downsizing.

(Photo: dpa)

Berlin The uncertainty about further economic development in view of the Ukraine war and increased energy costs is reflected in the employment plans. The Ifo employment barometer, which the institute’s economic researchers calculate monthly exclusively for the Handelsblatt, fell to 97.7 points in October – after 99.4 points in September. It is thus at its lowest level since April 2021. For the barometer, Ifo surveys around 9,000 companies every month about their employment intentions.

The sub-indicator for industry slipped back into negative territory for the first time since February 2021. This means that the number of companies that want to cut jobs exceeds the number of companies planning to increase their workforce. Klaus Wohlrabe, head of the Ifo surveys, is therefore currently not expecting any increase in employment in industry.

On Wednesday, BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller once again defended the company’s announced austerity program. The European chemicals market has been growing only weakly for around a decade, while increased energy prices and EU regulations are jeopardizing competitiveness. That’s why you have to save costs, said Brudermüller. The group does not rule out job cuts.

The employers’ association Gesamtmetall recently published the results of a quick survey of 1,400 member companies, according to which a good third of the companies also want to react to the changed economic environment with downsizing. This applies in particular to the automotive and supplier industry as well as metal manufacturers.

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The general economic conditions are also difficult for German mechanical engineering. Nevertheless, only around 15 percent of companies want to cut staff, more than half plan to increase their workforce, as the industry association VDMA determined in a survey.

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“We assume that mechanical and plant engineering companies will once again do everything in their power to retain qualified specialists and hire new ones,” said VDMA President Karl Haeusgen a good two weeks ago at the mechanical engineering summit in Berlin. Because good people are scarce and will remain so.

Other companies also see themselves in a difficult area of ​​conflict. Despite the economic uncertainty, companies are reluctant to downsize for fear of not being able to find qualified employees if business picks up again.

Reluctance to buy is causing problems for the retail trade

“Reports of new hires and layoffs are currently roughly balanced,” says Ifo expert Wohlrabe. “Caution is returning to the labor market.”

Retailers are even more uncertain than the manufacturing sector when it comes to their employment plans: “Since people’s reluctance to buy is currently causing problems for retailers, companies in the sector have revised their personnel plans,” says Wohlrabe. “Layoffs are to be expected in retail.”

The HDE consumption barometer, which is calculated monthly by the Handelsblatt Research Institute for the HDE trade association, fell to a new all-time low in October.

The service providers as a whole want to hire more staff, but their employment intentions are more muted than in the previous month. Hardly any employment impulses are currently to be expected from the construction industry either. However, job cuts are not a big issue at the moment.

More: Ifo Institute: A quarter of the companies are planning to cut jobs

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