Berlin, Düsseldorf The pressure increases. Less than a week before the results of the 2021 federal election are announced, the top candidates will face each other again in the last triell. And the nervousness can be seen from Olaf Scholz (SPD), Annalena Baerbock (Greens) and Armin Laschet (CDU) at the introductory round.
Everything is at stake. Laschet in particular is under pressure. The current polls see the Union three to six percentage points behind the SPD von Scholz. Baerbock’s chances for the chancellery seem long gone, but an important role in government is within reach for the Greens.
The CDU chief faced the most difficult task. His party is Chancellor Angela Merkel, but there is no sign of any official bonus. While Merkel has achieved everything, the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia seems like someone who has to prove himself always and everywhere.
Above all, he has to be present in the last week before the election – attack without becoming poisonous, parry without being offended, get the statesman out and leave the head teacher at home.
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The strengths:
When it comes to tax increases, Laschet addresses the concerns of medium-sized businesses with specific examples. The companies that have only just gone through the corona crisis should not be punished with new charges, Laschet demands.
Interview with the top candidates:
When it comes to internal security, the Union candidate can retreat to safe terrain, the promise of deporting endangered parties at least goes down well with traditional CDU voters.
In the debate about social justice, too, he can allude to the economic competence of the Union on several occasions. “The biggest problem of poverty is when parents have no jobs.”
The weaknesses: Laschet’s start is symptomatic. Instead of answers, he raises questions, instead of getting to the heart of the project, he comes up with long explanations about the status quo. On the subject of the minimum wage, for example, he explains the tasks of collective bargaining parties instead of making his point of view clear.
The problem of closeness and distance to the Chancellor is also becoming clear again and again. Sometimes he tries to sell her achievements as a Union team effort, on other occasions he emphasizes that he is not part of the grand coalition. But that doesn’t just set him apart from Scholz.
Flash poll after TV triumph: Scholz wins for the third time
Other hymns of praise for Union colleagues also do not pay off for Laschet. In response to an attack by Annalena Baerbock that the Union had done too little for climate protection during the years of government responsibility, he long and broadly praised the achievements of Klaus Töpfer. But the environment minister from the Kohl cabinet (1987-1994) does not help Laschet in this situation.
The format of the triell in Pro 7, Sat 1 and Kabel 1 then gave him the opportunity to return the favor with a rhetorical direct blow. Each candidate may ask one of the two opponents a direct question, Laschet must address it to Baerbock. But instead of putting the Greens in trouble, he wants to use them to attack Olaf Scholz on the subject of money laundering. It fizzles out.
Olaf Scholz
The Social Democrats’ candidate for chancellor led the SPD to the top of the polls, primarily with his calm, state-supporting charisma. His motto for the final spurt: stay calm and manage the lead.
The strengths: For this plan, he relies on the mantra-like repetition of his core themes in his first statement: respect in society, minimum wage of twelve euros, climate-neutral industry, at least at some point.
Above all, Scholz gives a lot of room to the minimum wage when it comes to social justice: As a specialist lawyer for labor law, he knows “that many people earn very little”. When the minimum wage was first introduced in 2015, the incomes of four million people improved. The next reform would benefit ten million people.
As usual, Scholz is calm when dealing with his colleagues. Perhaps he seems a bit more emotional than in the previous debates, daring a smile in the direction of Baerbock every now and then. The red-green harmony is important to Scholz this evening, he almost completely refrains from attacking the Green candidate.
The weaknesses: When it comes to climate protection, Scholz is nowhere near as credible as the Greens. In 25 years’ time he wants to make the industry “climate neutral”, Baerbock calls for much more far-reaching steps by 2030. In view of 250 years of European industrial history based on coal, gas and oil, this is an “extremely short time”, says Scholz.
Sometimes he exaggerates the proximity to the competitor: while Baerbock accuses Laschet of relieving top earners, Scholz nods and emphasizes the similarities between the SPD and the Greens.
When it comes to the wording, Scholz always slips into election campaign slogans: work must “be more worthwhile again” for people, after all, “it is about the dignity of the citizens”.
Annalena Baerbock
The co-leader of the Greens currently has the advantage of the least pressure. According to current surveys, she will not be Angela Merkel’s successor. In addition, her party has not been involved in any federal government in recent years. So she can distribute freely, at least in theory.
The strengths: Annalena Baerbock was the only one of the three candidates to address the audience during her first statement, explaining that politics must now “grow beyond itself” after so many people had already done so in the pandemic.
She is more aggressive than usual when dealing with her colleagues. Your need for harmony does not reach Scholz’s level. Nevertheless, she has her sights primarily on CDU boss Armin Laschet, for example on the subject of minimum wages, tax increases and, above all, climate protection.
Baerbock reacts irritably to Laschet’s rejection of a general minimum wage: “You are going back to the 1990s.” Further attacks follow: Laschet’s remarks on earlier CDU achievements on climate protection and Klaus Töpfer led to the most emotional outburst of the evening: “I wonder sometimes what’s going on with them, Mr. Laschet, ”Baerbock called.
As usual, Baerbock was able to score on the topic of climate. For a successful climate protection there must be concrete measures, such as the expansion of wind and solar power. In general, there are only two alternatives: the continuation of the gentlemen of the GroKo ”or an actual climate government.
In places Baerbock took on the role of moderator and asked Laschet and Scholz: “Do you want to meet the Paris climate target?”
The weaknesses: Despite the distance between her party and the SPD and Union, the Green Chancellor candidate hardly deviated from her usual line and used her usual slogans: “If you really want a climate government and a new start, you should vote green.”
The attempt to relativize her controversial statement from the second triall (“Every ban is an innovation driver”) seemed unfortunate. In terms of internal security, too, the result was little more than an increase in the number of jobs in the authorities and continuous monitoring of threats. When Baerbock is finally allowed to ask Olaf Scholz a question, she addresses his weaknesses as finance minister on the subject of money laundering. But it remains a half-hearted advance that Scholz can talk down.
The moderators and the format:
The moderators Linda Zervakis and Claudia von Brauchitsch directed the last triall in the Pro-Sieben-Sat-1 group. Above all, the former Tagesschau spokeswoman Zervakis was convincing, was clear, understandable and exuded sovereignty.
“Acts” presenter von Brauchitsch (previously also working for Sky and CDU-TV) disapproved of this performance and also made the team’s only mistake. At the first interim conclusion of the speaking time, she warned Baerbock to keep it short. But the Greens co-boss had the fewest minutes on the clock at this point. Armin Laschet spoke much longer than Scholz and Baerbock.
The debates were repeatedly segmented by clips on the major topics such as social justice, climate protection and coalition options. Some of these were prepared in a boulevard-esque manner, but quotes from voters and those affected did the format good. Above all, Annalena Baerbock repeatedly took up quotations from them and thus appeared attentive and close to the citizen.
Quick poll after the broadcast:
One thing was clear after the triumph: Laschet could not score decisive. According to the audience, SPD applicant Scholz did the best. When asked who won the TV triumph all in all, 42 percent voted for Scholz. Laschet came in second with 27 percent, and Baerbock came in at 25 percent. Six percent chose the answer: “I don’t know.”
Sat 1 showed these poll results in its debriefing. According to the broadcaster, Forsa interviewed 2,291 viewers. The survey therefore does not refer to all eligible voters in Germany, but only to TV viewers.
Later in the evening, the television group Pro Sieben Sat 1 published further details of the survey. When asked “Who did you find most credible?” Scholz was again ahead with 37 percent. This was followed by Baerbock with 29 percent and Laschet with 28 percent.
More: The news blog for the federal election. All important events at a glance.