Rome Italy will elect a new head of state on Monday. The date has been fixed for weeks, but the outcome is highly uncertain. Main protagonist: Mario Draghi and the question of what will happen to the government when he becomes president.
For months, Draghi has been dodging questions about his political future. Just over a week ago it was time again: the prime minister wanted to explain the latest corona measures. And only that: “I will not answer any questions about current developments, the Quirinal Palace or anything else.”
The Quirinal Palace is the official residence of the President – and possibly soon Draghi’s new place of work. It is a more representative office like that of the Federal President. But the unity of the entire country could depend on the choice made by 1,009 parliamentarians and regional delegates.
Draghi was considered a favorite even before he was prime minister. A good year ago, the old government in Rome collapsed – and President Sergio Mattarella commissioned Draghi to form a “coalition of national unity”. This has been brilliantly achieved.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
With a broad parliamentary majority of a good 80 percent, with parties from right to left, the ex-central banker has been in power for a year, put clever technocrats in key departments, advanced the vaccination campaign and rewrote the Corona reconstruction plan.
The economy is growing faster than it has in a long time, and the markets are once again trusting the country, which was once only perceived as a shaky candidate in the euro zone.
But now that presidential election could destroy this stability again. What happens to the government if Draghi suddenly changes office? A few days before the election, Draghi remains under the radar and has hardly any public appointments. As has been the case for months, there is no indication from those around him in which direction the 74-year-old is moving: does he want to become president – or rather remain prime minister? Who could follow him? And why on earth is polish rock Silvio Berlusconi running for the highest office? These are the five possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Draghi becomes president, the coalition bursts: standstill and a shift to the right are likely
The dominant narrative in Rome is this: as soon as Mattarella steps down, Draghi’s emergency government is over as well. Even if Draghi becomes president, he would be faced with a political shambles. He would have to commission a prime minister to form a new government – or even call new elections, which would not normally be held until February 2023. That would paralyze Italy for months.
Market and investor confidence could wane again. The yield premiums for Italian government bonds compared to German government bonds have increased again recently, and this spread could widen further.
He never made it clear whether he wanted to remain prime minister or become president.
(Photo: AP)
On top of that, new elections could bring a shift to the right – and a populist at the head of government. Lega boss Matteo Salvini paints opportunities just like Giorgia Meloni from the post-fascist “Brothers of Italy”. In polls, the bloc of centre-right parties currently has around 46 percent of the vote.
However, there is one factor that should not be underestimated: in the case of a new election, an electoral reform will take effect that will significantly reduce the size of parliament. Many MPs would lose their seats.
Probability: 2/10
Scenario 2: Draghi becomes President, the government holds: the smoothest transition
Above all, the social-democratic PD, currently the strongest force in polls, would like to see Draghi in the highest office. But neither the left nor the right camp currently has a majority in parliament. Draghi will hardly get a two-thirds majority, but he will get the required 505 votes in the fourth ballot if one of the major parties moves.
In new elections, Italy could get a government led by populists, with either of them at the helm.
(Photo: imago images/Insidefoto)
If the mega-coalition from left to center to right agrees to stay in the constellation, the question is who will succeed Draghi as prime minister? The name of Justice Minister Marta Cartabia is circulating in Rome, but so are many others. Cartabia would have the profile if he were the first woman in office. Draghi was scheduled to meet with the former constitutional judge on Wednesday afternoon.
However, Cartabia has a problem: “If Draghi becomes president, it will be difficult to get a technocrat at the head of the government,” says Giovanni Orsina from the Luiss University.
She could succeed Draghi as Italy’s first female prime minister.
(Photo: imago images / Italy Photo Press)
If the parties agree on a new prime minister from the current cabinet, it would be the most stable scenario. Draghi would move into the Quirinal Palace for seven years, from where he could oversee the reforms that had been initiated and hold the country together. And he would have a well-disposed government behind him – at least until next year’s elections. It would be the ideal scenario for companies and financial players.
Probability: 3/10
Scenario 3: Berlusconi becomes president: the most unlikely solution
You cannot apply for the post of President. Silvio Berlusconi did it anyway. The 85-year-old, who has been prime minister four times, is still in business: as head of the centre-right Forza Italia party and as a member of the European Parliament. Berlusconi would be the first president with a criminal record: in 2013 he was convicted of tax fraud. He only escaped many other convictions because the processes were statute-barred. There are also a number of sex scandals.
All this does not stop Berlusconi. The “Mission Squirrel” has been running for days, in which he tries to win over parliamentarians and delegates. But experts consider his choice unrealistic. “Optimistically, he will get 400 votes,” believes historian Orsina. The question will be when Berlusconi will step back – “and then take over the role of kingmaker”.
Berlusconi actually saw himself as a candidate from the entire centre-right spectrum. But Lega boss Salvini let this dream burst this week.
Probability: 1/10
Scenario 4: New president, old prime minister?: Strengthening of the right-wing Lega
Lega boss Salvini only announced on Monday that he wanted to present his own candidate for the presidency. He didn’t name a name, but it would be “a convincing candidacy for many”. It’s the latest volte in Quirinals poker. Salvini, whose Lega has fallen behind the “Italy Brothers” in polls, wants to position himself as the leader of the right-wing camp.
He could succeed. A pure Lega candidate would probably have no chance, but someone with a non-partisan profile who could also be chosen for the left spectrum would have. Draghi could then remain prime minister. Although Salvini has already announced that he would like changes in the cabinet in this case. So this scenario would not be smooth, but stable for the time being.
Probability: 2/10
Scenario 5: Mattarella continues: a year of transition
If there is absolutely no majority for a candidate, incumbent Mattarella could step in. For months, it was the desired constellation of many government politicians: Mattarella is still a year away, Draghi could continue to govern until the end of the legislature – and then be elected president by the newly elected parliament.
However, the 80-year-old Mattarella has repeatedly ruled out continuing. He was even photographed looking for a house – for the Italian media this is a clear indication that he will be moving out of the Quirinal Palace. Although the constitution does not rule out a second term in office, there has only been one precedent since 1948: When no successor was found in 2013, Giorgio Napolitano allowed himself to be persuaded in the sixth ballot. Italy’s politics are always good for surprises.
Probability: 2/10
More: Italy’s economy is growing strongly, but so is the national debt. The virus variant Omicron increases the financial uncertainty – and the risks for the euro zone.