Is Erdogan sending back millions of refugees?

Istanbul “Murderer”, “dictator”, “terrorist” – these are the words the Turkish head of state Erdogan has repeatedly used to describe the Syrian ruler Assad since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. Suddenly, however, there is no longer any talk of this, because the signs point to rapprochement: diplomats in Ankara and Damascus are preparing a meeting between the two top politicians.

It is no coincidence that this happens before the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey – and could also affect Ankara’s relations with European countries and the EU.

War has been raging in Syria since 2011. Hundreds of thousands of people have died since the central government in Damascus began cracking down on uprisings in March 2011. The state has repeatedly used poison gas against its own citizens, and terrorist groups such as the Islamic State (IS) or the PKK have conquered parts of the country. Earlier this week, IS fighters killed dozens of people in northern Syrian cities. At least six million Syrians fled abroad.

While the conflict in Syria has largely disappeared from the news in the West, Turks are still feeling the effects every day. Almost four million Syrian refugees live in the country, to the annoyance of opposition voters in particular.

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In addition, hundreds of Turkish soldiers are stationed in Syria. The alleged assassin of an attack in the center of Istanbul in mid-November with six dead and more than 80 injured is Syrian and is said to have received her instructions from the banned PKK in Syria. Trade between the two countries has come to a near standstill for over a decade.

Syria conflict: The pressure on Ankara is great

There is massive pressure on Turkey and its government to address these issues. “Turkey is striving for a solution that includes all Syrians and that preserves the country’s territorial integrity,” said the spokesman for the ruling AKP in Ankara, Ömer Çelik.

With Turkey’s presidential elections looming, observers suspect Ankara is aiming to mend its ties with Damascus to show voters at home that many of the country’s nearly four million Syrian refugees will soon be able to return home.

However, Ankara could also use the talks with Damascus as a lever towards the EU. Because many of the four million Syrian refugees in Turkey do not want to return to their homeland under any circumstances as long as Assad is president there. Many are likely to make their way to Europe instead – and could trigger a new wave of refugees there if the status quo in their country does not change.

Erdogan would gain political weight through such a tactical maneuver – abroad, but also at home. And just in time for the elections.

In the forthcoming elections in Turkey, it is uncertain whether Erdogan will have a majority as president or his AKP in parliament, but the opposition is said to be divided. “The problem this year is that the opposition is too divided to win the election, but at the same time the government’s reputation is too battered to continue governing without major problems,” Turkey analyst Selim Koru told Turkey Recap”, an analysis newsletter.

Oil refinery in Syria

The country’s economy has collapsed and millions of Syrians are leaving the country.

(Photo: dpa)

It is all the more important for Erdogan and his AKP that they set the course for the election campaign early enough to increase their own chances. Foreign policy lends itself to this: It is significantly more dynamic in Turkey than in Germany, for example, and is therefore always suitable for catching votes.

President Erdogan: reconciliation and escalation

The planned meeting between Erdogan and Assad is one of a whole series of foreign policy readjustments in Ankara that observers classify as potentially decisive for the election.

For example, the Turkish government is negotiating with both Kyiv and Moscow in the Ukraine war, and has not issued any sanctions against Russia even after the war of aggression began. With drone sales to NATO members, neighboring states and countries in Africa, Turkey has also gained influence in these regions.

Syrian child in a refugee camp

Four million refugees from Syria are currently living in Turkey. They have long since become a political issue.

(Photo: dpa)

Erdogan is also flirting with membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, an anti-NATO alliance under the de facto leadership of Russia and China. At the same time, President Erdogan prevented a vote in the Turkish parliament on Sweden’s accession to NATO.

Ankara accuses Stockholm of doing too little in the fight against the PKK terror group. Paul Levin, director of the Center for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University, is convinced of the Turkish approval, but this depends on a number of factors. Among other things, whether Sweden is tightening its anti-terror laws; but also on whether Turkey will receive concessions from NATO members, for example on the repair of the F16 fighter jet fleet by US companies.

The Cyprus conflict is likely to be a particularly emotional topic in the election campaign. There is a risk of escalation. Both the island and the protecting powers Turkey and Greece face elections in the first half of the year. While the Republic of Cyprus is ramping up exports of natural gas, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is seeking recognition from states like Russia.

“The upcoming elections will ensure that tensions remain,” Nigar Göksel of the International Crisis Group told Turkey Recap.

>> Read also: Turkish opposition leader – “A new era will begin”

However, the rapprochement between Turkey and Syria is likely to be far more important than an election campaign issue. Russia and Iran, the other two powers protecting Syria, currently have their own problems: Moscow is waging an unsuccessful war against Ukraine, while Tehran is faced with massive popular protests. No wonder Syria is currently not very high on the political agenda of the two countries.

The Syrian ruler is therefore currently lacking the necessary backing that he used to have in international negotiations. This is a good opportunity for the Turkish government to finally negotiate a deal with Assad.

More: Why President Erdogan wants to run for the last time.

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