International Banks Announced Their Interest Rate Decision Forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced on October 21 that the interest rate was reduced. The interest rate, which was reduced to 16% after the decision to reduce the interest rate by 200 basis points, was the opposite of what many economists expected in the world and in Turkey. After this decision, the dollar started to rise rapidly.

On November 19, the Central Bank also announced the much-anticipated interest rate decision taken this month and announced that the interest rate was reduced by another 100 basis points. The dollar, which exceeded 10 TL after the previous decision, exceeded 11 TL with this decision. 5 days have passed since the decision and the dollar, currently over 13 TL it’s on its way. Well, this situation from the Central Bank in the coming days. Will there be a resolution to fix it? Here is the answer to this question, according to the estimates of international banks. Yeah:

Estimates made by international banks:

Goldman Sachs: Rate could be increased by 20%:

US-based Goldman Sachs, in a statement yesterday, the CBRT in the second quarter of next year. may raise the policy rate to 20%. expressed. However, he said that an earlier move could come due to the ongoing pressure on TL. Goldman Sachs analyst Murat Unur said that a 20% increase in interest rates It will not be enough to bring inflation down to single digits., However may be sufficient for financial stability. stated.

Societe Generale: An urgent increase in interest rates may occur, a decrease in confidence in TL may cause hyperinflation:

France-based Societe Generale, on the other hand, predicted an ‘urgent’ increase in interest rates within the next month. The bank will set the interest rate at the end of the first quarter of 2022. would have increased to about 19%. he guessed. He also stated that it is possible to use some capital control tools such as the deposit withdrawal limit. In the same report, the bank stated that with the decrease in trust in TL, people may rush to the bank, the stability in financial markets may deteriorate and may lead to a period of hyperinflation. also added.

UniCredit: CBRT may have to increase interest rates, if interest rates go down again, the depreciation of TL will become unavoidable:

Economists of Italy-based UniCredit, on the other hand, stated that the depreciation of TL may force the CBRT to increase interest rates in December or at the beginning of 2022. To prevent depreciation reserves can also be used Economists said, however, that these measures will not work in the long run, and that an interest rate hike will be necessary. If the CBRT continues with interest rate cuts, a temporary tightening with liquidity measures may be seen more frequently, but this will also result. It is not possible to prevent the depreciation of TL. was voiced.