Berlin By Thursday at the latest, the effects of the ongoing Russian drone and rocket attacks had hit every Ukrainian: the energy supplier Ukrenergo switched off the electricity in each area at different times for up to four hours.
And it shouldn’t stop there: “We have to ask people to save electricity in the morning and in the evening to reduce the load on the damaged network,” says Ukrenergo boss Volodymyr Kudrytskyi in the Tagesspiegel.
“Putin is concerned with achieving a dictated peace. He wants the pressure on Ukrainian society to increase,” says Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies. He suspects that the bombing will continue until Ukraine is willing to make territorial compromises. He doesn’t believe that the calculation will work: “I was in Kyiv last week: the Ukrainian position has become even harder.”
“Ukraine’s power system only withstood because the power engineers were ready,” Kudrytskyi continued. There are about 70 repair teams across Ukraine, which include almost 1000 technicians.
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According to the director of the Energy Research Center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, Russia calculated the attacks to cause maximum damage to the Ukrainian energy system. “The Russians are hitting the junction points that connect the power grid – the key points, so to speak. For Ukraine, this is even worse and more dangerous than an attack on the power plants themselves.”
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Before the war, the most important components of Ukraine’s energy system were nuclear and renewables, which together accounted for 70 percent, says Ukraine’s Deputy Energy Minister Yaroslav Demchenkov. “Now we have to rely more on our three other nuclear power plants and the generation of heat using coal and gas.” The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which Russia now occupies, alone produced an eighth of Ukraine’s electricity.
Can Ukraine survive the winter without electricity and heat?
According to Demchenkov, Russia has been attacking the largest Ukrainian coal mining company from the air since Wednesday. Without the coal, many thermal power plants would be cut off from the supply. He is sure that the Russian military leading the operation will be advised by energy specialists. “They knew exactly which components of Ukraine’s power system were most vulnerable,” Demchenkov said.
For analyst Umland, the timing of the attacks is no coincidence. Because the approaching cold season is not only a problem for the Ukrainians. “The winter will also be hard for the Russian soldiers without electricity and water. Therefore, it seems as if Russia wants to break Ukraine before the onset of winter.”
This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine conflict:
Everyone saw that Ukraine’s energy system proved extremely resilient during the war, says Ukraine’s Deputy Energy Minister. “We have sufficient power generation capacity of our own,” explains Demchenkov.
But to maintain this resilience, Ukraine needs help, says Demchenkov: “The Russians wanted to unleash a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine that would lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in Central Europe.”
From Kharchenko’s point of view, the Russian attacks did not go the way Putin had imagined. Because there were only unplanned power outages in some districts and cities. Ukraine is prepared for such an attack, he says. “Additional repair teams were trained, emergency power plans were drawn up, and spare parts and equipment were collected for a quick recovery,” explains the energy expert.
Putin wants to increase the pressure on Ukrainian society.
(Photo: via REUTERS)
In addition, in recent years Ukraine has been preparing to join the European electricity system Entso-E, which has invested a lot of money in stability. Ukraine finally joined in March and has since had a unified electricity grid across the country, working in sync with grids in Europe. The war had accelerated the process, otherwise the final accession should not have taken place until 2023.
“As experience shows, the results that Russia achieves with such attacks are getting smaller every time,” says Kharchenko. It is a competition between Ukrainian energy technicians and Russian troops. “The faster we can repair the damage, the less effective Russian missile attacks will be.”
What can the West do to help?
Experts agree that diesel heaters, mobile heat pumps, heating containers and mobile air heaters must be brought to Ukraine in large numbers. In addition, drones of all kinds could be used to protect and monitor infrastructure, determine damage and provide reconnaissance. Long-range artillery could help hit directly the military bases from which Russia launches its drones and missiles.
“We are very grateful to the European transmission system operators, who have helped us several times with material and equipment, as well as our German colleagues Amprion and 50 Hertz,” says Ukrenergo boss Kudrytskyi. But Deputy Energy Minister Demchenkov also demands: “Only a strong air defense system can fend off missile and drone attacks.”
Deputy Energy Minister Yaroslav Demchenkov demands: “Only a strong air defense can repel missile and drone attacks.”
(Photo: dpa)
The West recently sent large numbers of such systems to the Ukraine after a long announcement, as did Germany with its Iris-T system. Nevertheless, analyst Umland believes that the West must accept the accusation that it did not do enough to protect Ukraine’s air defenses in the run-up to the attacks.
“The Ukraine has been demanding a no-fly zone since the end of February,” says Umland. “Perhaps the demand was worded poorly and was evaluated by NATO as a possible direct entry into the war, which is why it took a long time to set up a functioning, comprehensive air defense system, now every day counts.”
Is effective protection with new air defense systems even possible?
Gennadiy Ryabtsev, a member of the public council in the Ministry of Energy and the Coal Industry, also sees strong air defense as the only solution. But he also says: “Even the Israeli Iron Dome would not be able to fully protect the facilities of the energy system if they were attacked in this quantity.”
According to Ryabtsev, the critical infrastructure is only protected against terrorist attacks by individuals or small groups. This protection is not able to withstand the air forces of an entire state.
According to the director of the Ukrainian research center, Oleksandr Kharchenko, the Russian attacks did not go as Putin had imagined.
(Photo: dpa)
“If the country’s air defense systems are not strengthened over time and the intensity of attacks does not decrease, then the threat to the viability of the Ukrainian energy system will increase from month to month,” Ryabtsev says. “It will become increasingly difficult for us to rebuild the systems, repair what has been destroyed and serve consumers via alternate routes from backup power lines.”
There are many more nodes than power plants, so protecting them with anti-aircraft systems is not that easy, says Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center. And nodes, unlike a power plant, could be destroyed with a single missile hit.
Ukraine War in Winter: What Does the West Have to Prepare For?
Analyst Umland does not believe that the Russian attacks will have any concrete effects on the energy supply in the West. “The attacks have more of a symbolic role for the West.”
However, the number of refugees to Europe will “definitely increase”, the UN refugee agency UNHCR said on request. In this way, experts believe, Russia wants to destabilize the West. According to UNHCR, there are more than 6.2 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, adding to the almost 7.7 million who have already fled Ukraine.
“We have been transporting winter materials to Ukraine since May. These are blankets, sleeping bags, hygiene items, warm clothing, mattresses, solar lamps and the like,” the UNHCR said. “In the first few months of the war, the primary concern was to find accommodation that had not yet been destroyed. Now it’s a matter of repairing them and insulating them so you can survive winter weather in them.”
So far, according to the UNHCR, it has prepared 390 facilities with almost 108,000 beds. In addition, more than 630,000 internally displaced persons and refugees have already received small amounts of cash to be able to support themselves. “With all of these things, we directly reach about 2.1 million people in Ukraine,” UNHCR said.
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This article first appeared in the Tagesspiegel.