Berlin, Brussels A month and a half of war has dug furrows in the face of the Ukrainian President. Pain and anger could be seen on Volodymyr Zelensky when he visited the small town of Bucha on Monday. The pain of the civilians murdered there in cold blood. And the anger at the rampage of the Russian soldiers.
In Europe and the US, too, there is little doubt that Russia’s military is responsible for serious war crimes. The horrifying images that are now coming to light after the withdrawal of the Russian army from the areas around Kyiv are giving new impetus to the debate on the build-up of the Ukrainian armed forces. A discussion that will also characterize the meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels.
“We will once again increase our support for the defense of Ukraine,” announced Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens). And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasizes that it is “extremely important that NATO allies provide support so that we are able to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with weapons and equipment”.
The war has entered a new phase. The defensive battle for Kyiv has been decided, the Russians have been defeated in this region. For the time being, their troops no longer pose a threat to the Ukrainian capital.
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The Kremlin has failed in its main goal of toppling Zelensky’s democratically elected government in a blitz and replacing it with a puppet regime. But the Russian aggression is far from over.
The invading army is gathering its forces for a new offensive in the east, probably also in the south. Moscow has announced the “liberation” of the Donbass as a new war goal. At the same time, according to the analysis of the NATO partners, Russia wants to fight for a land bridge to the Crimean peninsula and could make another attempt to conquer Odessa – the most important port city in Ukraine.
“Russia’s repositioning is a military necessity, not necessarily a surrender of the strategic goal of subjugating Ukraine,” warns Gustav Gressel of the European Council on Foreign Relations. By concentrating the armed forces in the east, it could be possible to raze Ukraine in a war lasting months, maybe years.
“We will once again increase our support for the defense of Ukraine.”
(Photo: IMAGO/photothek)
The equipment requirements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces change with the nature of the war. “If we agree that Putin should not have any success with his war of aggression, not even partial success like a land bridge to Crimea, then we must do more – both with sanctions and with arms deliveries,” says security expert Claudia Major from the Science Foundation and Politics (SWP).
Panzerfausts and man-portable anti-aircraft weapons, which have so far made up the main part of western weapon supplies, are particularly suitable for defensive purposes. Now it’s about improving Ukraine’s offensive ability. To push back Russian troops, Ukraine needs tanks, armored vehicles, artillery and artillery detection radars.
This raises complex questions for the NATO states. The alliance partners had so far avoided delivering heavy weapons – also to reduce the risk of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.
The alliance continues to emphasize that it is not sending any weapons itself, but that military aid is a matter for the member states to decide. “Many allies are supplying lethal equipment to Ukraine,” confirmed US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith. But these are sovereign decisions of the individual countries, not decisions of NATO.
Ukraine demands tanks and rocket launchers
The US government has announced that it will expand its arms shipments. Among them are said to be armor-piercing kamikaze drones, which are suitable for destroying enemy artillery positions.
The pressure on Germany to do more for the Ukrainian army is also increasing by the day. “What we need today are heavy weapons, tanks, armored cars, artillery systems, multiple rocket launchers – what you can use to liberate the areas in the south and south-east,” said Kiev’s ambassador Andriy Melnyk on Deutschlandfunk. “You can’t launch a counteroffensive with a bazooka, unfortunately.”
The wish list includes, for example, infantry fighting vehicles of the “Marder” type, which the Bundeswehr has in stock, but which are to be gradually replaced by “Puma” tanks.
Ukraine has sent an up-to-date list of what weapons and what material it needs, said the chairwoman of the defense committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), the Handelsblatt. “Together with politicians, the military and industry, we are examining what we can also deliver from stocks and what we can send directly to Ukraine together with industry.” operational capability of the Bundeswehr may go.
Germany approved arms exports for Ukraine worth 186 million euros in the first quarter
Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has so far refused to give details about German deliveries – every detail endangers the transports and allows Russia to draw conclusions about Ukraine’s military capabilities.
The delivery of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons or protective equipment has become known. The more fuel depots the Russian army destroys in Ukraine, the more important the supply of fuel becomes.
The Federal Ministry of Economics published figures on German arms exports in the first quarter on Tuesday. According to them, “for the self-defense of Ukraine” in the first three months of this year, export licenses worth 186 million euros were issued, the total volume of exports approved during this period was 2.9 billion.
The CDU politician Thorsten Frei criticized the support as “shameful”: Germany delivers significantly less than many smaller EU countries. The federal government has provided Ukraine with a list of material that the industry can supply at short notice. According to Ukrainian information, however, this does not contain any heavy equipment that is urgently needed.
Federal government changes situation assessment
After the reports on the massacre in Buschta, a new assessment of the situation is emerging within the federal government. For millions of people in Ukraine, it is a matter of life and death, said Foreign Minister Baerbock: “We are therefore now also looking at systems that we have not previously supplied.”
A first clear indication of the change of course is that the federal government has approved the Czech plan to bequeath infantry fighting vehicles that were once owned by the National People’s Army to Ukraine.
Defense experts warn, however, that the next problem is already looming – at some point the Soviet-era material supplies will be exhausted. SWP security expert Major therefore demands: “The longer the war lasts, the more intensively we should think about whether it is not worthwhile to train Ukrainian soldiers on Western weapon systems.” This is where the “Marder” armored personnel carriers could come into play again .
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