Frankfurt The plan is ambitious. By the end of 2030, the Russian aviation industry is expected to build a good 1,000 new passenger aircraft. The country’s deputy prime minister announced this at a cabinet meeting at the end of June. The clear goal: Western equipment from the factories of Airbus, Boeing or Embraer should be replaced by domestic products.
The project shows that the Russian government assumes that the country will remain economically isolated from the West for many years to come. The West had banned the delivery of aircraft and spare parts as well as maintenance services as part of the sanctions against the country. This has caused severe turbulence in aviation in the country. Because airlines such as Aeroflot or S7 had relied heavily on aircraft from Western manufacturers until Russia invaded Ukraine.
The domestic economy is now supposed to fill the gaps. Whether this will succeed is an open question. In recent decades, the Russian aviation industry has been severely neglected. Hardly any new aircraft have been developed, and the few projects that exist with Chinese companies, for example, have not yet reached market maturity.
Nevertheless, the government in Moscow relies heavily on in-house developments that are already on the market and whose western components are now to be “nationalized”. These include the Irkut MS-21, which has so far been powered by engines from the West, among other things, or the Sukhoi Superjet New.
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At the same time, new aircraft types are finally to be made ready for the market, such as the regional aircraft TWRS-44, a turboprop machine. Even a four-jet Ilyushin Il-96-300 wide-body jet is included in the plan. The country wants to start building it from 2025.
The government is pumping the equivalent of 14 billion euros into the industry
The government in Moscow wants to spend the equivalent of a good 14 billion euros on upgrading domestic aviation. This sum alone raises doubts about the plan. The development of the Airbus A350, for example, has already cost more than ten billion euros.
Picked up
14
billion euro
the government in Moscow wants to put into aviation. For comparison: the development of the Airbus A350 alone cost more than ten billion euros.
In addition, the Russian industry may be able to close the gap when it comes to engines, but building complex controls or the avionics yourself is a huge challenge.
It will take a while before your own aircraft will be available. Until then, other solutions must be found so that aviation in Russia does not have to remain completely on the ground. The ban on taking off and landing in most western countries is already having a severe impact on the industry. That means a lot of markets are closed.
Aeroflot, for example, no longer offers any international destinations, with the exception of Belarus. And even in vast Russia, certain goals are unattainable. The government has temporarily closed eleven airports because of the war in the south of the country. The risk there is just too great. Popular holiday destinations for many Russians are also affected.
>> Read about this: No spare parts, no new jets – Russian aviation is threatened with collapse
So that at least the remaining destinations can continue to be served, the existing fleet must be kept in the air as much as possible. Airlines such as the Russian low-cost carrier Pobeda have therefore started to reduce their fleet. The unused aircraft are used as parts donors, but this is a temporary solution.
At the same time, aviation regulators have allowed Russian companies to copy western spare parts. The necessary certificates have already been issued. Still, not everyone in Russia trusts such improvised maintenance.
The Russian National Reinsurance Company, a state reinsurer, has significantly tightened the conditions for insuring aircraft, as the business newspaper Kommersant recently wrote. Excluded from insurance coverage are, for example, accidents caused by poor or even no maintenance.
Reinsurer tightens conditions
The good news from the point of view of Russian airlines: Contrary to earlier statements, China now wants to deliver western spare parts to Russia. At least that’s what the Chinese ambassador in Moscow indicated, the state news agency Tass recently reported. After that, we are already working on appropriate delivery options. But what exactly will come from China is still unclear.
The Russian airline relied on aircraft from the West up until the war and now has to reschedule because of the sanctions.
(Photo: imago images/ITAR-TASS)
All of the measures mentioned should help to get by without deliveries from the West for the time being. The Russian Ministry of Transport hopes to be able to bridge the next five years in this way.
The Russian airlines are thus facing a turning point. Aeroflot, for example, had made a name for itself in the West with its fleet, which consisted almost exclusively of Airbus aircraft, and a certain standard of quality. By the beginning of the war, the airline was flying to 56 countries worldwide.
Now the fleet is being radically rebuilt – also with the help of state subsidies. In the future, for example, the Sukhoi Superjet New and the Irkut MS-21 will be flying with the Aeroflot logo. The airline also wants to order the TU-214. This aircraft in particular shows the challenges that a “nationalization” of Russian aviation entails.
High fuel consumption
The TU-214 first flew in 1996, so it’s not the most modern aircraft anymore. Technically, the aircraft is quite at the level of Western aircraft from that time. But the fuel consumption was significantly higher than that of a comparable Airbus A321.
This is also why Aeroflot never ordered the jet. So now the turnaround, because there is no other way. Aeroflot may be able to cope with the higher kerosene costs for the time being. The Russian government has already announced aid and intends to intervene with fuel if necessary.
But should the western ban on Russian aviation ever be lifted, Aeroflot would have a product with which it would hardly be able to compete. The airline management would have to start a massive modernization again, as it did once after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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