Frankfurt The message fits the bill. The US company Boeing will not start production of the long-haul aircraft 787 (Dreamliner) again until the second half of the year. The US aviation authority has not yet released the jet. Since July of last year, it has not been allowed to be delivered due to quality and manufacturing problems.
Boeing has become an insecure cantonist for airline managers. Delaying the development and delivery of aircraft is considered good manners in the industry. But the Airbus rival is currently not running a civil aircraft program according to plan. When management presents quarterly figures on Wednesday, there won’t be much positive news.
For the executives at Lufthansa, this means that they will probably have to take a line for the return flight from the management conference in Seattle at the end of May. They actually wanted to fly back to Frankfurt with the first of 25 Dreamliners they had ordered. But Europe’s largest airline group will probably have to plan the first months of the important summer travel season without the Boeing Group’s long-haul jet.
Because he’s stuck in his crisis. It is essentially the late effects of the debacle surrounding the short- and medium-haul jet 737 Max that sent the US company to the ground. After two horrific crashes, the plane was not allowed to take off worldwide for almost two years. The aggressively programmed control software had to be revised.
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The plane is now back in the air. But the relationship between Boeing and the aviation authorities has been permanently disturbed and characterized by distrust. Boeing had not sufficiently informed the US regulator FAA about the new software in the Max. The authorities, on the other hand, did not look too closely and left too much to the Boeing people when it came to certifying the aircraft.
Under closer surveillance
This is now taking revenge: Boeing is under increased surveillance by the supervisors. This is evident in the Dreamliner. More than 100 aircraft are now waiting to be handed over to customers. But the chronically understaffed FAA wants to inspect each aircraft individually before it goes into service. Typically, supervisors review the manner in which deficiencies are being remedied. After that, the manufacturer can generally use this method without further checks. But everything has changed since the Max debacle.
Also with the long-haul jet 777-9. The market launch of the modernized and larger variant of the popular 777 has already been pushed back by four years. So far, the US company has not even received permission from the FAA to begin testing for certification with the first aircraft built.
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One problem: The FAA and the European authority Easa have different opinions about what the safety systems of the aircraft should look like. One thing is undisputed: there must be redundant systems. It is disputed: are several of the same systems sufficient or do different systems have to be used to secure the jet?
The endless waiting causes growing frustration on the customer side. Lufthansa wanted to introduce the new business class with the first 777-9. Because of the delay, management switched to the Dreamliner. But because its delivery also takes time, the new seating furniture is now being installed in the Boeing 747-800 and the Airbus 350-900. Because they fly reliably.
Boeing has already built twelve 777-9s for the Gulf airline Emirates. But they are stored – without engines. If everything goes well for Boeing, the jet could be certified by July next year, Emirates boss Tim Clark recently told the industry platform Airline Ratings. “But, honestly, if this goes beyond 2023 and another year, maybe we’ll cancel the program,” Clark threatened.
It is quite possible that this will happen. The US specialist portal “The Air Current” reports that the 777-9 is again being delayed. According to this, the first jets should not be handed over to customers at the end of 2023, but only at the end of 2024. Boeing has not yet commented on the subject.
The 737 Max itself delivers important revenues again. But things are progressing slowly as production rates ramp up. This year, the US group wants to increase production to 31 jets per month. Before the Max crisis, there were 52 aircraft. Boeing has not yet said when this value will be reached again. Scott Hamilton from the news portal Leeham News assumes that this will not be the case until 2024.
However, high production and delivery figures for the highest-volume aircraft in the Boeing family are important for the development of a new aircraft model that is intended to replace the Max one day. “Bringing production rates back to original levels activates the necessary cash flow,” writes Scott Hamilton of Leeham News in an analysis.
Developing a completely new jet can quickly cost tens of billions of dollars. Money that Boeing can’t even free up. The mountain of debt accumulated during the crisis amounts to an impressive 41 billion dollars.
Boeing needs to develop a new jet
But the pressure to finally launch a new aircraft below the classic long-haul segment is growing almost daily. The A321 LR and XLR, pimped by Airbus for more range, are well received by the airlines. Boeing has not been able to keep up here and has high hopes for the largest version of the Max – the 737-10.
But here, too, there is a crunch in the approval process. It must be completed by the end of the year. Only then can Boeing use an exception rule and install safety systems in the jet that correspond to slightly older standards. That’s exactly what the Boeing management wants, after all, new systems cost a lot of money. It also makes approval more complicated. The pilots would also have to be trained, which in turn drives up the costs for the airlines and makes the aircraft less attractive.
But after the Max debacle, the project is almost a toxic topic for supervisors at the FAA and Easa. They have requested extensive rework, so the schedule is shaky. Extending the deadline doesn’t seem like an option either. Peter DeFazio, head of the US Congressional Transportation Committee, has already denied it.
“His opposition to extending the certification deadline for the Max 10 is bad news for Boeing,” writes Hamilton of Leeham News. One that joins many other negative messages at Boeing.
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