How Peter Obi stirred up Nigerian politics

Peter Obi

The Labor Party candidate.

(Photo: AP)

Cape Town On no other continent are the heads of state as old on average as in Africa – and the electorate so young. Nigeria is just another example of this. But in the country of 220 million people, that gap could soon narrow, though perhaps not yet in the presidential and general elections that have just been held.

According to the forecasts, Peter Obi, a comparatively young, 61-year-old ex-banker and candidate for the small Labor Party, has at least a real outsider chance.

What is already certain is that Obi has vigorously shaken up the old, established two-party system that has dominated and paralyzed Nigeria since the end of military rule in 1999, even if in the end it is unlikely to be enough for the victory predicted by a number of polls. A winner will be known in a few days at the earliest, the election is currently being delayed due to some glitches.

The Catholic from the south-east deliberately presented himself as an alternative to the country’s corrupt “elite”. Especially the young people who took to the streets against police violence and corruption in Nigeria in 2020 support his openness and willingness to reform.

Two thirds of the voters are younger than 30 years, the average age in the West African country is almost 19 years. It remains questionable, however, how many voters Obi mobilized at the ballot box, especially in the populous, rural and Muslim north of the country.

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Observers agree that Obi’s election campaign has shaken up the country. During his travels, the former governor of the state of Anambra has filled the largest market squares and university halls. This is mainly due to his down-to-earth nature and willingness to respond to criticism.

In a country where politicians usually want to show their importance with a large entourage, Obi queues at airports with his luggage. When he discovered that 13 vehicles in his car escort were empty, this was reduced to a minimum.

Main opponent faced with allegations of corruption

His displayed modesty stands in stark contrast to his two main opponents, Bola Tinubu, 70, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and leading opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar, 76, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Both are wealthy and deeply rooted in their respective party structures.

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And, as is often the case in Nigeria, both have been confronted with allegations of corruption for years. Abubakar, who has run for the presidency several times without success, was once a customs officer and later became wealthy as a businessman – without anyone really knowing how it happened. His campaign was therefore primarily based on his high profile from his time as Vice President. As then, he wants to strengthen the private sector in the economy.

Tinubu, the favorite for election, was governor of the state of Lagos between 1999 and 2007, which also includes the economic metropolis of the same name. It is precisely there that the 70-year-old hopes to win particularly clearly. He also heads a party that controls 21 of the 36 states.

However, given the high level of violence in the country, the lack of fuel and cash and the economic stagnation, there is enormous dissatisfaction with the political and economic status quo among the population. Tinubu is also considered to be in poor health.

Elections in Nigeria

Two poll workers collect voting papers in Yola.

(Photo: dpa)

During the tenure of incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, the proportion of people living in extreme poverty almost doubled, according to the pan-African polling institute Afrobarometer. A year ago, nine out of ten Nigerians said their country was going in the wrong direction.

According to the World Bank, the number of people living below the international poverty line of two dollars a day rose by a further 20 million to almost 100 million by the end of 2022 during the corona phase – almost half of its population.

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Despite Nigerians’ dissatisfaction, Obi faces a multitude of obstacles on the road to a surprise election, if only because religion and ethnicity still play an important role. It is true that he should clearly win in his home region with a share of 80 to 90 percent. But especially in the Muslim north, he could fall short of the high expectations.

Many of the polls that see Obi ahead are aimed at an online-savvy, urban audience, with whom the politician is particularly popular. In rural areas, however, where the two major parties have built up a powerful electoral apparatus, the situation is likely to be fundamentally different. This is where Obi often can’t compete with his limited resources.

Another arrangement, this time deliberately ignored by the main candidates, could also cause unrest. For a long time there was an informal agreement in Nigeria that presidents should alternate between the Christian south and the Muslim north. With Abubakar, a man from the north would become president for the second time in a row, with Tinubu, a Muslim from the south. Both could still create significant tensions in a country with a deep religious divide.

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