Consumers continue to be optimistic about the future, but are becoming more cautious again.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin Consumers in Germany are somewhat more confident about the future than they were a month ago. This is indicated by the new HDE consumption barometer for April, which rose to 93.3 points. This is the sixth month in a row that optimism is growing.
However, the most recent increase was extremely small – and was only a tenth of a point. And so, despite all the increases, there is still a long way to go to the 100 point mark, around which the leading indicator before the corona pandemic and before the Russian attack on Ukraine usually fluctuated.
The Handelsblatt Research Institute calculates the consumption barometer once a month on behalf of the HDE trade association. Around 1,600 households are surveyed for this purpose.
The evaluation of the individual questions shows that the Germans do not want to have quite as large a safety cushion of savings as they did in March. This is seen as a positive signal for consumption. At the same time, they are no longer quite as optimistic about the development of their own income. On top of that, those worries that had actually eased particularly strongly since the autumn are reappearing a little more often: those about rising prices and those about a sluggish economy.
When it comes to assessing the overall economic situation, consumers are at odds with companies in Germany. They had recently assessed the situation much more positively. The Ifo business climate index rose surprisingly clearly in the past week – also to 93.3 points.
Positive dynamic urgently needed
The companies surveyed are more optimistic about the current situation, but above all about the future. The increase in confidence was extremely small in trade and the construction sector. In industry, however, it was significant.
So there is at least a slight hope that the German economy will pick up speed again in the spring – and not allow itself to be influenced by new crises such as the recent turbulence in the banking market. In any case, positive momentum is urgently needed if the full year 2023 is to end with a positive rate of economic growth. After all, the economy was on a contraction course not only in the final quarter of 2022, but probably also in the first quarter of the new year.
In both quarters, subdued consumption weighed on the economy. Correspondingly, value added in retail also shrank. Most economic researchers are forecasting economic growth of between zero and 0.5 percent for 2023.
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