Gas will flow again after maintenance

Dusseldorf, Riga According to industry sources, Russia wants to supply gas to Europe again after the routine maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. However, this will happen at a reduced level, a person familiar with the Russian export plans confirmed to the Handelsblatt on Tuesday evening. First, the Reuters news agency reported accordingly, citing two sources.

You have now seen a confirmation for the first delivery quantities, an insider told the Handelsblatt. The commitment of the full 40 percent could follow on Wednesday. The same amount had also come down the pipeline prior to maintenance since mid-June. The Federal Ministry of Economics did not want to comment on the report at the request of the Handelsblatt in the afternoon.

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin said during a visit to Iran that night only 30 million cubic meters of gas could be pumped to Germany via Nord Stream 1 instead of 60 million cubic meters per day. He threatened that delivery quantities would be permanently reduced if Russia did not quickly get back a turbine that had been serviced in Canada. This would reduce the daily delivery capacity to around a fifth of the original amount. According to the federal government, the turbine is on its way to Russia and is not necessary for the regular operation of the pipeline.

The Russian gas monopolist Gazprom had already cut the capacity of deliveries through Nord Stream 1 to 40 percent last month and attributed this to the maintenance of a turbine. Since July 11, with the start of the announced annual maintenance, no gas has flowed through the Baltic Sea connection at all.

Top jobs of the day

Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.

The prospect of Russian supplies resuming soon via Nord Stream 1 weighed on gas prices on Tuesday. The European future fell by 3.1 percent to 154.25 euros per megawatt hour.

The stock exchanges also reacted clearly to the report in the afternoon: the German leading index Dax gained around 250 points within a few minutes and closed 2.7 percent up.

Could Russia “play with the supply”?

British economist Timothy Ash explains that, from a technical point of view, Russia certainly has the option of completely suspending gas supplies via Nord Stream 1. But he thinks this scenario is unlikely.

Instead, Ash believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin could “play with the supply,” increasing and curtailing it at will in the short term. According to the economist, the decision lies solely with the President. “There is only one player in the decision of whether and how much gas flows – and his name is Vladimir Putin,” said Ash, who researches as part of the Russia and Eurasia program of the think tank Chatham House and also works at the asset manager Bluebay .

On Tuesday evening, for example, Putin warned against a further reduction in Russian gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1. If Russia does not receive the turbine repaired in Canada, the daily throughput capacity of the pipeline threatens to fall significantly at the end of July, the Kremlin chief said on Wednesday night a meeting in Tehran, according to the Russian state news agency Tass. Instead, he referred to Nord Stream 2: “We still have a finished route – that’s Nord Stream 2. We can put it into operation.” It is conceivable that Moscow wants to use Nord Stream 1 as a means of pressure to commission the sister pipeline to force.

“Putin will not return to full capacity,” Ash is also certain, because that would limit the Russian President’s ability to effectively put pressure on Western states and especially Germany.

Ash sees a clear political calculation behind it: “It looks as if Putin is trying to push through a deal in Ukraine in the fall. In order to achieve this goal, he can put pressure on Europe through gas supplies. Because the European states could then in turn try to persuade Ukraine to agree to Putin’s conditions – i.e. to give up areas in the east.

Since June 14, Gazprom has massively reduced its deliveries via Nord Stream 1, citing technical defects as the reason. Critics, on the other hand, accuse the Kremlin of political calculations with regard to the restricted gas supplies.

Gazprom had always emphasized that gas volumes had to be reduced because of a missing turbine. A gas turbine from the German energy technology group Siemens Energy had to go to Canada for maintenance, but could not be delivered back to Russia due to existing sanctions. In the meantime, however, the turbine is on its way back via Germany.

More: These are four scenarios for the future of Nord Stream 1

source site-15