The scenarios show that the gas storage tanks can also be extensively filled after the coming winter, even if they are heavily emptied this winter.
(Photo: dpa)
Dusseldorf The Energy Storage Initiative (INES) published scenarios for the gas supply in Germany this coming winter. For the first time, the association is going public with its models. INES represents 14 German gas and hydrogen storage operators and thus more than 90 percent of German gas storage capacities.
According to the scenarios, Germany should get through the winter well – at least if there are no extremely low temperatures. The models cannot rule out gas shortages. According to INES Managing Director Sebastian Bleschke, however, they are extremely unlikely given the current weather forecast.
The outlook for winter 2023/2024 is also optimistic. The scenarios show that the gas storage tanks can also be extensively filled after the coming winter, even if they are heavily emptied this winter.
The model results contrast with warnings from the gas industry. For example, Mario Mehren, head of Germany’s largest gas producer Wintershall, told the Handelsblatt in an interview: “This year, Europe received 75 billion cubic meters of gas up to July. That’s about half of what Europe imported from Russia before the war. These 75 billion cubic meters may not be available to Europe in the coming year.”
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When asked about this, INES Managing Director Bleschke qualified: “It is very difficult to estimate the LNG availability at the moment. But our perception is that over the past few months, knowing the situation, markets have had the opportunity to adjust.”
A very cold winter would be challenging.
He also said: “If the availability is not sufficient, then we will certainly see a price effect.” This price effect will lead to consumption reductions, especially for industrial customers. “Basically, a reduction in consumption is organized in a market economy way.” The modeling shows that a gas shortage could also be prevented by high gas prices, because these would force companies to stop production.
Gas storage fill levels at different temperatures
Overall, INES presented three scenarios: The first scenario is based on the temperatures of the EU weather year 2016, it depicts normal temperatures in January averaging 0 degrees. Another scenario assumes “warm temperatures” like in the European winter of 2020, with an average of 4.5 degrees. A third scenario examines the gas supply for “cold temperatures” corresponding to the European winter of 2010, with an average of minus 4.6 degrees.
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At very warm temperatures, the filling level in the model is 57 percent at the end of March – at very cold temperatures, on the other hand, the filling level is almost zero at the end of January. In February, the gas storage would then be empty. According to INES, complying with the filling level target of 40 percent at the end of January would therefore be challenging in very cold temperatures.
In addition, in the case of extremely cold temperatures, there could be a shortage of gas, which would mean that around one-fifth of German gas consumption would be missing. When asked what that would mean exactly, Bleschke said that if there was a shortage, there would not be enough gas available to meet demand. However, he emphasized that in reality this gas shortage would lead to higher prices and thus to lower gas consumption.
Bleschke acknowledged that cold temperatures could also be technically challenging. “In the past, we have never fallen below a filling level of 15 percent,” he said. Should the gas storage tanks continue to be emptied, the question arises as to whether refilling is possible. Because gas storage works with underground pressure, which has to be maintained.
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