The Greens and the FDP now have all the cards in hand – almost all of them.
(Photo: imago images / Manngold)
Berlin In addition to finance minister and candidate for chancellor, Olaf Scholz has had a new title since Sunday: election winner. But although the SPD has become the strongest force, the negotiating situation of the Social Democrats is almost as bad as that of the Union, the loser in the election.
Game theory teaches that both parties are caught in the same prisoner’s dilemma. The concept models the situation of two prisoners who are accused of having committed a crime together. The police question them independently. The dilemma is that one prisoner does not know how the other is behaving.
This is exactly how it should soon be for the SPD and the Union. Because a red-green-red alliance does not seem to have a majority and a renewed grand coalition seems ruled out, the big parties can only come to power with the grace of the Greens and the FDP.
The liberals and the eco party will now begin on Wednesday to sound out on their own. “In terms of negotiation strategy, it is smart that the Greens and the FDP vote first. This way they can use their bargaining power in the best possible way, ”says the Cologne behavioral economist Axel Ockenfels. The Greens and the FDP thus become the police that can play off the prisoners against each other.
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It is therefore not decisive that the SPD is called the election winner. “From a purely game-theoretical point of view, it is irrelevant for the chancellor question who has a few percentage points more,” explains Ockenfels. Only one question is decisive: How far can the SPD and Union be bid down?
The Greens and the FDP have all the cards in hand – almost all of them
Since, following the example of the prisoner’s dilemma, both will not know in every detail how far down the other is, the Greens and the FDP have all the cards in hand – almost all of them. Because of all things, there is a way out for the CDU / CSU.
As soon as party leader Armin Laschet moves away from wanting to become Federal Chancellor or is overthrown, the Union can free itself from the dilemma. She would have an alternative with the opposition bank. It does not have to form an alliance with the FDP and the Greens at any cost.
SPD chancellor candidate Scholz does not have this option. As the winner of the election, he cannot flirt with the role of the opposition. He can only hope that the Union will actually choose the path to opposition. That would give Scholz plenty of bargaining power again with the Greens and the FDP, because a traffic light coalition would be the last option. So far, however, the Union has refrained from saying goodbye to the formation of a government – with good reason from the point of view of game theory.
As long as there is only one option for Scholz to free himself from the dilemma. “One reason for the lack of negotiating leverage at Union and SPD is that they have ruled out a grand coalition for the time being,” says Ockenfels. With a renewed alliance of the SPD and CDU / CSU, the parties would have an alternative to the Greens and FDP – and these would not have any bargaining power.
One parameter that must play a role in these considerations is the basis. The Greens will vote at a party conference or question their members before signing a coalition agreement, their co-chairman Robert Habeck announced on Tuesday.
Klaus Schmidt, economist from the Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, explains: “The initial situation may appear symmetrical, but the coordination of the grassroots makes it more difficult for the Greens to credibly threaten the SPD with a coalition with the CDU.”
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