Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced his intention to invoke article 49.3 of the Constitution during a tense session at the National Assembly, which could lead to a censure motion against his government. Despite initial hopes of cooperation from the National Rally, Marine Le Pen confirmed her party’s support for the censure, demanding more concessions. If passed, this motion would force Barnier to resign, marking a historic moment as it would be the first censure approved after invoking article 49.3 in the Fifth Republic.
For several hours, it seemed as though the anticipated outcome would not materialize. During the afternoon, Prime Minister Michel Barnier announced his readiness to extend an olive branch to the National Rally, stating ‘that there will be no reimbursement cuts for medications in 2025 as part of the Social Security financing bill.’ This gesture may have suggested that Marine Le Pen’s group had received sufficient assurances to refrain from supporting a censure motion if article 49.3 were triggered. Ultimately, that was not the case…
Here’s a recap of a tense day at the National Assembly, potentially one of the final days for Barnier’s government, which concluded as many expected.
Michel Barnier: ‘I accept the responsibility of my government’
Shortly after 3:30 PM, just moments after leaving Matignon, the Prime Minister took the stage at the National Assembly. What was about to unfold was not unexpected: he announced his intention to invoke article 49.3 of the Constitution.
‘Under article 49 paragraph 3 of the Constitution, I accept the responsibility of my government for the entire Social Security financing bill for 2025,’ he stated. ‘I do this while appealing to each of you, representatives of the Nation, to remember that our shared mission (…) is to serve France and its citizens,’ he continued, fully aware that his declaration would lead to a censure motion.
Within five minutes, La France insoumise declared their intention to file one. Prime Minister Michel Barnier ‘will face both dishonor and censure this Wednesday,’ declared Mathilde Panot, the leader of the Insoumis deputies, during a press briefing in the Four Columns room. The socialist, ecological, and communist factions confirmed their support for the motion. However, at that moment, the National Rally had yet to announce their position regarding the left’s censure motion.
Marine Le Pen: ‘We will support (the) censures’
Before the session commenced, Marine Le Pen intensified pressure on the government. In her view, the victory regarding medication reimbursement cuts was insufficient; she insisted that the censure be contingent upon a reversal of the pension de-indexation policy. ‘It is up to the government to accept it or not.’
For Michel Barnier, the answer was a firm no. ‘I have engaged in extensive dialogue with all political groups,’ he cautioned during his address. Consequently, the RN group promptly stated on X that ‘this text, like the government, warrants censure.’ Later, addressing reporters, the former presidential candidate revealed that the RN would submit their own censure motion and endorse that of the left. ‘Regardless of the origin of these censure motions, whether singular or multiple, we will support them, especially our own.’ she confirmed.
This declaration signals the looming conclusion of Michel Barnier’s administration. On Wednesday, December 4, if the votes from RN deputies are combined with those from NFP deputies, the censure motion will likely pass, accumulating over 315 votes, thus surpassing the required absolute majority of 289.
Of course, there remains a possibility that the anticipated scenario could shift, particularly if Michel Barnier continues negotiations with the far-right and offers them guarantees, especially concerning other legislative texts or future bills. The RN might also decide to support only their own censure motion, abstaining from the left’s, which would prevent either motion from achieving the necessary absolute majorities for adoption.
A historic milestone?
This Monday, December 2, the Barnier government appears to be nearing its end rather than the beginning of its journey, less than three months after its establishment. Should the censure motion be approved, he will be compelled to resign, making history as no censure motion has ever been adopted following the invocation of article 49.3 under the Fifth Republic.