Brdo pri Kranju, Paris EU Council President Charles Michel had already made it clear in his invitation that dinner would be rather heavy, at least politically. He would like a “strategic discussion” on the international role of the European Union, wrote the Belgian, “in the light of recent developments in Afghanistan, the AUKUS security partnership and the evolution of our relations with China”. So geopolitics, the really big issues.
The summit in Slovenia, at which the European heads of state and government of the EU member states met on Tuesday evening in a castle near the capital Ljubljana, was marked by disillusionment with the USA and the big question of what will follow for Europe.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who stepped onto the European stage for the first time since her party’s crashing electoral defeat, is no longer expected to provide any impulses; her days at the helm of the government are numbered. It is above all France that is trying to steer the EU on a new foreign policy course.
President Emmanuel Macron wants to swear Europe to be more independent from the USA. Aukus was a shock to France, the new security pact between the USA, Great Britain and Australia cost French industry a multi-billion dollar submarine deal.
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But according to its own account, Paris is less concerned with the unexpected loss of the lucrative arms business or a defamation on the world stage. Macron sees the process as a warning sign for Europeans. After the unilateral approach to withdrawing from Afghanistan, the United States broke confidence in its European allies for the second time within a few months, according to Paris.
During a visit to Greece last week, Macron made it clear how he assesses the overall geopolitical situation: Europe must “stop being naive” in defending its interests, he said. “The US has been concentrating very much on itself for a little over ten years now and has strategic interests that are reorienting towards China and the Pacific.”
Resistance to Macron’s initiative
From the French point of view, it is clear that the EU must become more independent, politically, technologically and militarily. They call it “strategic autonomy”. When France takes over the EU presidency on January 1st, “strategic autonomy” is to become one of the priorities.
A summit is planned at which the member states will only deal with security and defense issues. The government in Paris is already cultivating diplomatic territory in the European capitals. “The President’s bilateral contacts are currently numerous,” says the Élysée.
Commission head Ursula von der Leyen has fundamentally sympathy for Macron’s initiative, the same applies to the already Francophile Council President Michel. But the discussion requires a sure instinct that one cannot necessarily expect from Macron – in April the French will vote on his re-election.
The more Paris presses for European independence, the more resistance it generates. Eastern Europeans in particular are deeply skeptical about attempts to cut the cord from the USA. In some EU capitals, the Aukus affair is viewed primarily as a “commercial matter” between France and Australia.
The Balts and Poles also see that the Americans, under the impression of the growing economic, technological and military power of China, are aligning their foreign and security policy more closely with the Pacific region. But the Eastern Europeans do not want to give the USA further reasons to turn away from the EU with hasty reactions.
“Intensify” the relationship between the EU and NATO
So when Macron arrived at the summit, he tried to downplay tensions with the Americans. The common history is bigger than the current conflict, he emphasized. At the G20 meeting in Rome at the end of the month, he will hold talks with US President Joe Biden. “I think it’s the right opportunity to see how we can get back to each other,” he said. Macron had already made it clear beforehand that a defense-political move closer together in the EU would not be in contradiction to the alliance with Washington and NATO.
Commissioner von der Leyen also wants to avoid the impression that the defense policy ambitions of the Europeans amount to a weakening of NATO. Shortly before the summit, she phoned NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and the two of them meet again and again for dinner together. Von der Leyen knows and values Stoltenberg from her time as German Defense Minister.
The head of the commission announced on Twitter that she would “intensify” the cooperation between the EU and NATO. This includes a joint declaration in which the two organizations want to ensure their cooperation.
In 2018 there was the last declaration by the EU and NATO, which is now to be revised and adapted to changed realities. For von der Leyen, Macron and Michel, the value of close coordination with Stoltenberg lies primarily in countering the concerns of Eastern Europeans that more EU could mean less NATO. Strengthening the European pillar would strengthen NATO as a whole, so the slogan.
From the Élysée Palace, it is said that the Aukus alliance is “a signal for Europeans that the fundamental moment has come for them to fully assume their responsibility”. In concrete terms, this means: closer strategic coordination when looking at geopolitical challenges and trouble spots, even stronger cooperation in armament projects and a joint reaction force that is actually operational.
France is not only worried about a loss of importance in new geostrategic arenas such as the Pacific region, but also security issues in the immediate vicinity of the EU. This applies particularly to the Middle East and North Africa – regions in which the USA could hold back more in the future.
Big challenges for the EU
Especially after the Afghanistan debacle, there is a great temptation to turn away and write off military interventions as counterproductive. But Europeans will hardly be able to afford that, given the arc of crisis that surrounds them. Whether Libya, Lebanon, Syria or Belarus – the challenges for the EU are not diminishing because the Europeans are tired of them.
Macron had already raised the question of sovereignty in his Sorbonne speech on the future of Europe four years ago. You can hear from his environment that the first steps have been successful since then. Among other things, the establishment of a European Defense Fund with eight billion euros is mentioned, with which the development of new weapon systems and joint armaments projects is to be promoted.
Yet Europe is far from being strategically autonomous. “The bare, uncomfortable truth is that the EU cannot guarantee its own security without the US,” says Peter Wittig, who was German ambassador to Washington until 2018 and now teaches at Georgetown University. Wittig warns the EU leaders against raising unrealistic expectations. “There won’t be an integrated European army, there isn’t even one for NATO.”
But the ex-diplomat is of the opinion that Europe must take on more responsibility in its neighborhood: “The Americans will no longer do this for us. Washington is fixated on the Pacific. “The weighing of interests of the White House, on which Aukus was based, shows this very clearly:” Setting a strategic counterpoint against China is more important to the Americans than taking the sensitivities of their European partners into consideration, “says Wittig.
The decisive question will be whether the new federal government will take up the French initiative for more European independence. Should there be a traffic light coalition, it would be dominated by the SPD and the Greens by two political forces that are traditionally more skeptical of arms. However, it should be easier for the party leaders to convince their base to increase defense spending when it comes to strengthening the EU rather than fulfilling NATO goals.
Wittig sees Berlin as an obligation to bring, also because Germany has recently achieved little constructive in the Franco-German relationship: “The new federal government must come out of the previous refusal to face Macron, without chimeras like an EU army.”
More: The submarine dispute turns into a transatlantic crisis