For Armin Laschet it is now all or nothing – a comment

CDU chief Armin Laschet

The CDU chief prepared the explorations with the FDP and the Greens in the party headquarters on Saturday.

(Photo: dpa)

The hope for the Chancellery is currently ensuring Armin Laschet’s political survival. The CDU leader is thus in a curious position: Either he will become chancellor or he will no longer be anything. Leading CDU politicians made this clear to their party chairman on the weekend before the exploratory talks began – and thus further weakened his position for those negotiations.

The public dismantling of the CDU boss is in full swing. Friedrich Merz is said to want to apply for the party chairmanship a third time if the worst comes to the worst. Jens Spahn and Norbert Röttgen are also said to be getting into position. At least they have publicly settled with Laschet and his election campaign.

And representatives of the economic wing are demanding that, in the event of the opposition, the party base should have a say in the repositioning of staff. If such scenarios are otherwise often dismissed as speculative questions that did not arise at the moment, many Union politicians can now not wait for the planning for a possible time after Laschet.

Some in the Union would prefer a new start in the opposition

Apparently hardly anyone in the CDU expects Laschet to succeed in forging a Jamaica coalition. Otherwise, leading politicians would not turn so publicly away from their party leader, who, as Chancellor, would have to decide on the filling of ministerial posts.

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The FDP leader Christian Lindner, who is actually considered a Laschet friend, is therefore calling on the Union to clarify internally whether it wants to lead a government at all.

In fact, it seems reasonable to assume that some in the Union would prefer a new start in the opposition to a weak Chancellor Laschet in a fragile Jamaica alliance. This applies not least to the CSU and its chairman Markus Söder. So far, he has been as little help to Laschet with the upcoming explorations as he has been in the election campaign.

All of this does not make it easier for Laschet to negotiate with the possible coalition partners. Laschet would have to offer a lot to the FDP and the Greens in order to make the CDU boss, who is already less popular in his own party and among voters, chancellor. The troubled Union, on the other hand, will only be willing to compromise to a limited extent if it fears that too many concessions will further dilute its content.

Laschet’s prospects for Jamaica and the Chancellery are getting worse as the party dismantles. It is difficult to justify why someone should become chancellor for whom their own party no longer has any use without a government office.

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