Dusseldorf Less than ten days before the general election, the picture is solidified: with at least 25 percent, the SPD is well ahead of the competition in the most recent surveys. After a crash last week, the Union has now recovered in most surveys and stabilized above the 20 percent mark.
According to the surveys, the Greens have the lowest hopes for the Chancellery among the parties that have put up their own candidates: in the majority of the surveys, they receive approval ratings between 15 and 17 percent.
So the party of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck in the latest ZDF political barometer comes to 16 percent. If there was an election next Sunday, the Social Democrats would again be at the top with 25 percent, while the Union would be unchanged at 22 percent. AfD and FDP received eleven percent, the Left Party six percent, according to the poll published this Friday by the research group Elections, as in the previous week.
The results essentially coincide with those of the ARD Germany trend from Thursday evening: Although the Social Democrats lost one point in the Infratest dimap survey. But with 26 percent approval, they were still well ahead of the Union, which gained two points to 22 percent. The Greens fell one point to 15 percent.
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According to Wahlen, however, a large majority believes that the federal election campaign of the research group has not yet been decided – namely 82 percent. In 2017, opinion was different a week before the election: At that time, only about four out of ten respondents said that the race was still open.
Politbarometer: Only a two-party alliance possible
According to the survey by the Wahlen research group, several alliances would be mathematically possible. A grand coalition would be the only two-party alliance. It would also be enough for a traffic light coalition, a German coalition and red-red-green.
According to the ZDF Politbarometer, the current possible coalition models are met with one thing above all else: rejection. According to this, a traffic light coalition does best, which 37 percent find good and 39 percent bad. This time, a grand coalition led by the SPD would be welcomed by 34 percent, but rejected by 45 percent.
According to the survey, a red-red-green alliance would receive the least approval: This coalition rated more than half of those surveyed (56 percent) as negative and slightly more than a quarter (27 percent) as positive.
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Both SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz and the Greens candidate Baerbock have been keeping a low profile on a left-wing alliance so far. Meanwhile, representatives of the Union are urgently warning against the participation of the left in government.
In the opinion of Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet, his opponent will definitely enter into an alliance with the Greens and the Left, if this should be mathematically possible after the election. “I firmly assume that even if Olaf Scholz should be in second place,” said the North Rhine-Westphalian Prime Minister on Thursday in Stuttgart.
CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt even accuses the Vice Chancellor of wanting to specifically establish a left-wing coalition: “He advertises it every day because he is not ready to rule it out,” said the CSU top candidate on Thursday in the “Phoenix” broadcast ” Unter den Linden special ”.
Scholz is also ahead in terms of chancellor preference
Despite the intensified debate about the left-wing alliance, the Germans would by far prefer to see Scholz as Federal Chancellor. In the Politbarometer, almost half (48 percent) spoke out in favor of the Federal Minister of Finance. Armin Laschet only wants a little more than one in five to succeed Angela Merkel (22 percent), while Baerbock only has 15 percent.
The ARD Germany trend paints a comparable picture: In the event of a direct election, more than four out of ten would vote for Scholz, Laschet would get 16 percent, the leader of the Greens to twelve percent.
In principle, election surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prognosis for the outcome of the election. You are also always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.
More: Olaf Scholz rolls out the red carpet in the direction of Lindner with his center-pivot – a comment
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