Europe’s hesitation is tempting Russia to aggression

Europe column

Every week, Moritz Koch, head of the Handelsblatt office in Brussels, analyzes trends and conflicts, regulatory projects and strategic concepts from the inner workings of the EU. Because anyone interested in business needs to know what’s going on in Brussels. You can reach him at [email protected].

It is an appearance entirely to the liking of the French President. This Wednesday he will step up to the microphone in the plenary session of the European Parliament and outline his agenda for the Presidency of the European Council. Emmanuel Macron wants to send a signal of departure, advance Europe’s strategic autonomy and underpin the EU’s claim to become a geopolitical actor. Big ambitions but unfortunate timing.

The headlines of the past week show how strongly the dream of European global political capability collides with reality. The crisis diplomacy of the great powers follows the EU from the side table. European security is not decided in Paris and Berlin, let alone Brussels, but in Moscow and Washington.

The fact that Russia is massing an invading army on the border with Ukraine illustrates the simple and painful realization: Europe cannot defend itself and is dependent on the United States for a fundamental question of sovereignty. And that’s not going to change in the foreseeable future, despite all the geostrategic planning in Paris.

The past few weeks have shown that, confronted with a return to classic great power politics, thinking in spheres of influence and military deterrence, the Europeans are unable firstly to develop a uniform picture of the situation and secondly to derive a strategy from it.

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The EU thinks in processes, not in common goals. Member States and the Commission are working on a “strategic compass” and are discussing which sanctions they should implement in the event of a (repeated) Russian attack on Ukraine. But the results remain vague because member states fail to overcome fundamental differences.

The Germans are an obstacle

The Germans in particular are an obstacle. The old Schröder network is active in the SPD, which still sees Russia primarily as a partner, not a threat, and is preventing clear signals of sanctions to the Kremlin. “Don’t look up” is the motto of the Netflix hit, “Don’t look east” in parts of the governing coalition. How fitting that the Sunday evening news starts with the Djokovic posse in Australia while Russian tanks roll on trains to the western border.

Of course, it is not easy for the European peace project to question the central premise on which it was able to thrive – namely that conflicts of interest can be overcome with win-win solutions. In the cold logic of power rivalry, there is no win-win. One’s security is another’s insecurity, and the perception of weakness is an invitation to aggression.

What does Vladimir Putin see when he looks west? A US president who has the Afghanistan debacle in his bones, an EU that no one needs to fear and, yes, that too, a leadership vacuum in Germany after 16 years of Merkel’s reign. In short: He sees a good opportunity.

More: A lasting security arrangement with Putin is impossible.

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