Escalation or Relaxation? Biden and Putin discuss the confrontation in Ukraine

Brussels, Berlin If Vladimir Putin has shown anything in his long reign, it is opportunism – which in his case, however, means less the flexibility of political positions than a strategic orientation. Putin senses opportunities that he can take advantage of to strengthen Russia’s position of power. That was the case with the attack on Ukraine in 2014, the intervention in Syria in 2015, and this is how it now seems to be again.

Ukraine could again become the target of Russian aggression. At least that is the warning the Americans have given their allies in NATO in recent days. Satellite images show that Russia has concentrated troops on the Ukrainian border. An attack could be imminent, although the Americans stress that, based on their information, Putin has not yet made a decision.

But the opportunity is good in several respects: Germany is in the middle of a change of government, the election campaign has begun in France, and the US under President Joe Biden has clearly signaled that it wants to focus its attention on the hegemonic conflict with China. For a strategic opportunist like Putin, this is an almost irresistible lure.

Biden recognized the danger. On Monday he joined forces with his key European allies to find a common line. On Tuesday he spoke to Putin. Both sides threaten – and both sides demand. There is no compromise in sight.

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In Berlin, too, the possibility of a Russian attack on Ukraine is now being taken very seriously. The traffic light coalition comes under pressure before it is even in office. Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz says it must be “very, very clear” that any further threat to Ukraine would be unacceptable. But what does that mean?

Traffic light coalition relies on deterrence

“The Europeans should make Putin understand that aggression against Ukraine would have devastating political and economic consequences for Russia,” demands Bijan Djir-Sarai, foreign policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group in the Bundestag.

In short: deterrence is necessary. Djir-Sarai does not want to commit himself to the question of whether German arms deliveries would also be an option. But he makes it clear: “Ukraine should be able to defend itself. No form of support should be taboo. ”

Viola von Cramon, European politician for the Greens, assesses the situation similarly: “Europe must show a clear edge. It is important not to rule anything out now. ”Politically, the demand for arms deliveries is highly controversial. German laws restrict the export of war weapons to crisis areas. Green leader Robert Habeck had nevertheless spoken out in favor of arms deliveries to Kiev in May – and thus triggered a storm of indignation.

Military experts such as Carlo Masala from the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich still consider the move to be sensible. The rationale behind this is to drive up the price of aggression – and thus prevent Putin from letting himself be tempted to attack.

“It’s about signaling to the Russians that the Russian armed forces would have to pay a high blood toll,” argues Masala. Especially since it is clear that NATO will not defend Ukraine because the country is not part of the alliance area.

It is also practically impossible for the USA to rush to help Ukraine with its own troops. After the debacle in Afghanistan, Biden definitely does not want to involve his country in a new war. The US does supply weapons, however, and has equipped the Ukrainian armed forces with anti-tank missiles, among other things.

Primarily, however, the US government wants to use economic means as a deterrent. Specifically, the economic measures concern restrictions on the sale of Russian government bonds and Russia’s shutdown from the international Swift banking system. Green politician Cramon is also campaigning for this. Daniela Schwarzer, Director for Europe and Eurasia at the Open Society Foundations, advises the new federal government to coordinate closely with Washington.

Discussions about Nord Stream 2

“If it really comes to an invasion, the West has to respond with tough sanctions and NATO has to protect its eastern flank by deploying troops,” she says. “The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would then no longer be politically enforceable for the foreseeable future.”

The Russians justify their troop deployment with troop transfers in Ukraine and with NATO exercises in the Black Sea. The costs of an escalation would be high, of course Putin knows that. But the threats against Ukraine put him in a strategically favorable position.

Even if he doesn’t give an order to fire, the Kremlin chief is demonstrating his geopolitical importance and forcing negotiations with the United States. Russian television broadcast a short clip from the video conference with Biden. “Greetings, Mr. President,” said Putin in it. No more was known about the conversation at the time this issue went to press.

Maneuvers by Russian units

Moscow flexes its muscles on the border with Ukraine.

(Photo: AP)

Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group in New York, does not believe that Russia is actually preparing an invasion: “Putin’s invasion of Crimea seven years ago benefited greatly from an element of surprise – an advantage Moscow will never have again.”

Russia insists on stopping NATO’s eastward expansion

Nevertheless, Bremmer urges an understanding: “If you want a stable international order, a new NATO agreement with Russia is necessary.” David McAllister, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament, also advocates de-escalation “through diplomacy and dialogue” .

But it remains unclear what an agreement with Russia might look like. Apparently Putin is demanding a written assurance that NATO will not be expanded any further east – which is hardly negotiable from a Western perspective: Georgia and Ukraine are aspiring to NATO and are already partner countries.

“There can be no compromises at this point,” says FDP foreign policy expert Djir-Sarai. “Neither the Americans nor the Europeans can give the assurance that Ukraine will not become part of NATO. It is a decision that Ukraine, as a sovereign country, will make for itself. “

More: Five reasons Putin is risking escalation in Ukraine.

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