Berlin Contrary to legal requirements, the Federal Environment Ministry has not yet submitted the climate protection report or the climate projection report. The ministry confirmed this to the Handelsblatt on request. “The 2021 climate protection report is still being coordinated by departments and will be adopted in one of the next, only sporadic cabinet meetings, probably the first cabinet meeting in November,” it said.
According to the Federal Climate Protection Act, the federal government is obliged to forward “the climate protection report for the respective previous year to the German Bundestag by June 30”. When asked for the first time in the summer, the ministry named September as the publication date. Now we are talking about November.
The next cabinet meeting, however, will take place on October 20th. MEPs even have to receive the projection report “by March 31 of the respective year”. In contrast to the climate protection report, it is drawn up every two years and sent to the EU Commission.
It’s about reports that are politically explosive. The climate protection report contains “the development of greenhouse gas emissions in the various sectors”, as the law says, as well as “the status of the implementation of the climate protection programs” and “a forecast of the expected greenhouse gas reduction effects”.
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If, for example, the transport sector or the building sector, industry, agriculture or the energy sector fail to meet their annual targets, the government must submit an immediate program within three months to close the climate gap quickly. If necessary, hard cuts are also necessary.
An enormous climate gap in the transport sector
Like in the transport sector: The sector will emit 20 million tonnes more CO2 than allowed in the coming year. This is already evident from the projection report, among other things. It has been available to the Handelsblatt since August, even if the Ministry of the Environment withholds it from the public. At the beginning of September, the Ministry of the Environment described articles about this as “irresponsible and also dubious”, as a spokesman for Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD) said before the federal press conference.
The minister has been observing “speculation about a slight increase in the price of CO2” for some time. The question was not whether the CO2 price – as already decided – will rise slightly, but whether it has to rise extremely sharply: from 25 today to possibly 250 euros, which is a proportion of the fuel price from seven to 70 cents today per liter of gasoline would mean.
The minister keeps important climate protection reports under lock and key. The data are still “in the process of departmental coordination”.
(Photo: Reuters)
The background to the discussion is the finding that 20 million tonnes of CO2 in traffic cannot be saved in the short term with other measures than with less traffic. The projection report reveals how little leeway a transport minister will have, regardless of which party. In it, the authors list 22 possible measures and their effectiveness.
This includes the already decided CO2 price from 25 euros per tonne today, rising to 55 euros by 2025, ecological taxes, funding programs, investments in rail and local transport or an expiry of the EEG surcharge on electricity and the end of canal fees for inland waterway vessels. All of this helps to save just 11.3 million tons – but that in 2025 at the earliest.
1,800 euros higher fuel costs for a family with two cars
With an additional speed limit, as is being discussed, at most two million tonnes can be saved, and relief through the commuter allowance would even mean more emissions again. That is why the question has long been raised as to whether the price of CO2, and thus the price of petrol, must rise noticeably. For a family with two cars alone, the costs could rise by 1,800 euros a year, as the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has estimated. This applies to a price surge of 40 cents per liter with a CO2 price of 150 euros. Others, however, consider that 70 cents to be necessary in order to force the necessary waiver or switch to other means of transport.
In view of the already rising inflation, the subject holds a lot of explosive power in the ongoing coalition talks. During the federal election campaign, the German Institute for Economic Research determined that the measures proposed in the election programs for more climate protection alone will not be enough to achieve the politically agreed climate neutrality by 2045. For example, the Greens are calling for the CO2 price to be increased to 60 euros from 2023.
But it is by no means just about the impressive 20 million tons in the next year. By 2030, the transport sector not only has to save its current gap, but also the enormous amount of 65 million tons. The traffic is growing steadily.
The spokesman for Environment Minister Schulze pretended in September that there would be a “CO2 price spiral”. It is a sensitive issue “that affects everyone”. There is a consensus between the federal and state governments that they want a “gentle CO2 price increase in small steps”.
CO2 price as “reliable graduated rent”
The aim is for people and companies to be able to adjust to a higher price of CO2 over a certain period of time. “But if there are no alternatives or not enough, as is the case with the charging infrastructure for electric cars, for example, politicians cannot simply increase the price of CO2 and thus the price of petrol,” he said. That would be irresponsible. “The minister has pointed this out several times in the past few weeks.” Reliability is important, otherwise the instrument of the CO2 price will be damaged. “It is more of a reliable graduated rent that is steadily increasing, but within a very manageable and predictable framework.”
The cited projection report was “actually completely out of date today as a factual basis,” as the spokesman explained in the election campaign. Rather, the government has long since tightened the targets, and the emissions trading price has also risen. “Calculations that are used to want to predict an extremely high gasoline price are therefore dubious.”
The violent reaction can be explained by the fact that the report is an important basis for climate protection policy. The law states: “The climate protection projection report is decisive for the integrated national progress reports”, i.e. for the pending climate protection report.
The pending publication is “not related to the ongoing exploratory negotiations,” the spokesman said. It is interesting, however, that Minister Schulze is already starting discussions as the new transport minister in view of the ongoing exploratory talks, as it was said in the negotiating circles. The Greens really want to claim the department.
Ministry: reports bring “no additional profit”
In any case, Schulze’s spokesman dismisses the report that it represents “no additional gain” for the coalition negotiations. Essential information has already been published elsewhere, “the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 as early as March 15, 2021 by the Federal Environment Agency”. And the “estimate of future emissions is included in the 2021 projection report.”
But it was precisely this report that the ministry had previously questioned. Now it was said that the departmental coordination was complete. Since there is no need to deal with the cabinet, the report will “now be put into print layout and then forwarded to the Bundestag and the EU Commission”.
And the climate protection report? As the Handelsblatt learned from government circles, it was not put into the departmental vote until September 20. Now there is still a need for change, for example by the Federal Ministry of Economics, as the environmental department explained. The corona pandemic is responsible for the delay. There was no talk of this in the summer when the Handelsblatt first asked.
More: There is a risk of 70 cents more per liter of petrol – but Laschet and Scholz are silent.