According to experts, many years will pass before climate-neutral hydrogen becomes available in abundance.
(Photo: dpa)
Berlin Green hydrogen is considered to be indispensable on the way to climate neutrality. Politics and business are therefore trying to set up a complete hydrogen value chain as quickly as possible. But the hurdles are high, demands and reality are far apart. This is borne out by a dossier from the Ariadne project funded by the Federal Ministry of Research.
Six institutes worked on the dossier, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research.
The authors consider it unlikely that green hydrogen will be available in abundance within a few years, on the contrary: “The uncertainties with regard to the availability of green hydrogen are enormous. One has to assume that hydrogen will be scarce at least until 2030. That means that by then direct electrification will be in the foreground of the transformation to climate neutrality, ”says Falko Ueckerdt from PIK, one of the authors of the paper.
The Ariadne authors warn against considering green hydrogen as a panacea for all areas of application. Green hydrogen is produced using electricity from renewable sources using electrolysis. It is climate neutral. Even if the EU target of 40 gigawatts (GW) of electrolysis capacity for hydrogen production by 2030 is achieved, this will only cover one percent of the final energy demand in the EU, the authors calculate.
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However, this presupposes a growth in electrolysis capacities that is comparable to the growth in photovoltaic capacities in their boom times. “The challenges for expanding capacities on this scale are much greater with hydrogen than with photovoltaics,” says Ueckerdt. “With hydrogen, demand, infrastructure and supply have to be increased at the same time. The photovoltaics, on the other hand, could be integrated into an existing electricity system. “
The investment decision is missing for 80 percent of the hydrogen projects
This is why the Ariadne experts recommend initially only using hydrogen where there are no alternatives, i.e. in the steel or chemical industry and in air traffic. At the moment it is difficult to estimate whether hydrogen will also be useful in heavy goods traffic after 2030 or even for cars or in the building sector. “These decisions should only be made when it is clear what quantities of hydrogen are actually available at what prices, instead of relying on it now,” advises Ueckerdt.
In order to have relevant quantities available quickly, the authors recommend not relying on green hydrogen alone: ”A ‘blue hydrogen bridge’ could increase the supply of climate-friendly hydrogen and enable an earlier transformation to hydrogen,” says the dossier. Blue hydrogen is produced on the basis of natural gas by means of steam reforming, the CO2 released in the process is separated off and stored underground. The procedure is controversial. Nevertheless, countries such as Norway and the Netherlands advertise that they will be able to offer blue hydrogen at short notice.
The authors of the dossier took a look at the planned capacities for hydrogen electrolysis in the EU that are likely to be realized. “The result is sobering. There is still no final investment decision for 80 percent of the projects announced for 2023, ”says Ueckerdt.
The finding reflects the uncertainties associated with investments in hydrogen technology. A company survey by the think tank Epico recently revealed that the transformation of energy-intensive industries towards climate-neutral production with hydrogen technologies “has not yet fully begun”. The framework conditions for the conversion to hydrogen technologies on an industrial scale are not given for industrial companies. There was a lack of “important course-setting on the way to a self-sustaining hydrogen market”.
EU still undecided which hydrogen projects it wants to support
The Ariadne authors also see deficits in this regard. The industry seems to be ready to invest in principle, but the political framework conditions are still lacking, they say.
In fact, the hydrogen investments are currently still within the scope of pilot projects. Only on Monday did the Federal Ministry of Economics (BMWi) announce the start of a project at Thyssen-Krupp Steel in Duisburg. Together with Air Liquide, the steel manufacturer is testing the use of hydrogen for the production of pig iron. The BMWi is funding the project with 37 million euros. This is a grant from the ministry’s energy research program.
The starting shot for large-scale investments, however, is still a long way off. One of the reasons for this: The EU Commission has not yet decided which hydrogen projects it considers particularly worthy of funding within the framework of the “Important Projects of Common European Interest” (IPCEI). Particularly high state subsidies are permitted for IPCEI projects. The federal government is ready to provide billions of euros for IPCEI projects.
More: Why climate protection agreements could be the steel industry’s last chance