Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to gain an advantage over his rival Kamala Harris in the prediction markets for the 2024 presidential elections. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s probability of winning the election increased to 50.8%, while Harris’ probability decreased to 48.4%. This indicates a 0.2% increase in Trump’s favor and a 0.2% decrease in Harris’ favor in the last hour. Elon Musk, who attended Donald Trump’s rally, stirred up the cryptocurrency markets.
Trump took the lead again in prediction markets
Bets on cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket are facing increasing interest in predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election. Bets on the US dollar stablecoin (USDC) reflect Trump’s growing advantage. This increase also reveals how important developments that may affect the presidential race resonate with the public. In particular, the assassination attempt against Trump in July stands out as one of these developments.
Trump soared in popularity at Polymarket after the shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania. The support rate, which jumped from 60% to 70% in one day, then dropped to 46% when Harris entered the race instead of US President Joe Biden. However, Trump regained his popularity after a while, gaining a 52% to 47% lead over Harris. By mid-September, however, both candidates were neck-and-neck with an even probability of 49%.
With Trump’s rise again, allegations of manipulation attempts in prediction markets have been made. According to research on the X platform, in early September, when Trump’s popularity was rising, some people tried to artificially increase the probability of Harris winning on Polymarket. This attempted manipulation was accomplished by using $9 million worth of USDC to buy ‘yes’ shares for Harris and ‘no’ shares for Trump. The purpose of this move was to profit from this by increasing Harris’ chances of winning. However, this attempt was not successful.
Elon Musk and Trump influenced the cryptocurrency markets
Trump’s superiority in the prediction markets was further strengthened when Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, supported Trump. Musk’s support for Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania had a particular impact on meme coins. According to Blockchain analysis platform Spot On Chain, after Elon Musk’s speech, an investor who invested in cryptocurrencies aimed at Trump made a profit of $ 113 thousand in just 17 hours.
The investor purchased TRUMP and MAGA tokens for 360 thousand USDC as soon as Musk’s speech started. This move brought a 31.5% return in a short time. Elon Musk’s influence on the cryptocurrency market is a situation that has been observed before. Musk’s statements can cause sudden price movements on memecoins, providing investors with opportunities to make quick profits.
What is the latest situation for the election?
Although Trump has gained an advantage over Harris in the prediction markets, he continues to lag in some critical states. The state of Nevada, in particular, is known for accurately predicting US presidential election results in past elections. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s probability of winning all swing states is at 19%. Likewise, Harris’ probability of success in these states is at a similar level. Nevada stands out as a state where Democrats are gaining strength. This situation may negatively affect Trump’s chances in the presidential race.
Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s high voting rates in this state contributed to the Democrats becoming even stronger here. However, it seems that many voters turned to Trump after Kennedy withdrew his candidacy. On the other hand, states where Republicans are strong, such as Ohio, look promising for Trump. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s probability of winning in Ohio is around 90%. This shows that the 2024 presidential elections may be one of the most competitive elections in history.
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