AfD sympathizers demonstrate in Chemnitz against the policies of the federal government.
(Photo: IMAGO/HärtelPRESS)
Berlin According to economic researchers, the AfD is an obstacle to economic development in certain regions of Germany. Oliver Koppel, innovation expert at the German Economic Institute (IW), justifies this with the popularity of the party, especially in less innovative regions.
“The fact that the AfD rejects immigration has a negative effect on innovation, because these regions in particular are dependent on qualified immigration in order to strengthen their innovation and specialist base,” Koppel told the Handelsblatt. However, foreign engineers thought very carefully about the regions of Germany in which they would settle.
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shares the assessment of the IW. “It applies not only to immigration from non-EU countries, but, with the exception of Poland, unfortunately also to immigration from many, especially western EU member states,” said Alexander Kritikos, who heads the Entrepreneurship research group at the DIW , the Handelsblatt.
However, without qualified immigration, the skills gap is likely to widen. Recent numbers on jobs that require a math or other science, computer science, or engineering (STEM) degree are boding ill.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
According to the latest MINT autumn report by the IW in October, the skills gap in this area was around 326,000 people. This is the second highest value ever measured, only in 2018 was it slightly more according to IW.
Pollster: Many eligible voters in the West cannot imagine voting for the AfD
The federal government wants to contain the problem with a specialist offensive. This should succeed with a new immigration law for skilled workers. In order to attract more workers from abroad to the country, the rules for entry and the recognition of professional qualifications are to be simplified.
>> Read also: Large survey shows who really wants to come to Germany
However, lowering the hurdles for workers from third countries does not change the problem that the AfD often acts as a brake on progress and as a deterrent to foreign skilled workers where it is particularly strong.
Basically, approval for the AfD is higher in eastern German regions than in western Germany, explains DIW expert Kritikos. But some western German regions also see themselves exposed to greater approval of the AfD.
The head of the opinion research institute Insa, Hermann Binkert, also points this out. “Even in the most recent state elections in Lower Saxony, the AfD got a double-digit result,” he told the Handelsblatt. “But the AfD is basically stronger in the east than in the west.” There, with the exception of Berlin, the party consistently achieved double-digit election results.
The finding is supported by the so-called negative Sunday question by Insa. There – in contrast to the classic Sunday question – it is determined which parties the eligible voters can least imagine supporting.
“In the West, the AfD is rejected as an alternative voting option by many more voters than in the East,” says Binkert. Up to three quarters of West Germans could not imagine voting for the AfD, he explained. But this is only the case for about every second East German. “Even the necessity of moving here due to the shortage of skilled workers is not shared by all those surveyed to the same extent.”
What favors the approval of the AfD
According to DIW researcher Kritikos, three regional characteristics generally increase approval of the AfD. The regions are either not very attractive economically, for example when the average income there is relatively low, such as in Gelsenkirchen.
>> Read also: More and more patents from inventors with a migration background
Or in the regions, the jobs are “structurally vulnerable”. According to Kritikos, this is the case when a high degree of automation endangers the jobs of industrial workers, for example in the automotive or chemical industries. The DIW expert named Pforzheim, Heilbronn and Ludwigshafen as examples.
As a third feature that favors a strong influx of AfD, Kritikos names a negative demographic development. This means that more young people are migrating than are migrating and the region’s population is aging. This is particularly true in East Germany.
A way out of the dilemma is not easy. “There is no one-fits-all solution,” says Kritikos. “Behind each of these structural factors there are significant but very different economic problems that significantly cloud the prospects of these regions in particular.”
expectations of politics
In regions with strong emigration of young people, politicians often reinforce the negative development by dismantling the infrastructure. “Accordingly, with increasing willingness, AfD is chosen, which often provides simple solutions to the problems that have arisen.”
Many people in such regions do not see the reduction of the innovative weakness as the most urgent problem as long as a basic infrastructure is not secured. “The influx of foreign skilled workers is then perceived more as additional job competition, not as a help to reduce the shortage of skilled workers,” explains the DIW researcher.
Politicians will therefore not be able to avoid expanding the infrastructure in the affected regions and rebuilding the digital infrastructure and enabling better financing of the often indebted municipalities. “Only then can you start thinking about innovation strategies.”
In regions where the automation, digitalization and robotization of production is imminent, innovation is perceived more as a threat, according to Critiko, because it endangers existing jobs. The AfD then likes to propose protectionist measures “to protect the locations”. However, as is so often the case, this will not work, but will be well received by the workers concerned.
Kritikos advises politicians to “systematically” strengthen the training and further education opportunities for affected workers and at the same time to convey to them that they will not be left alone with the upcoming structural change.
More: Three scenarios for the future of German industry