Donald Trump has not been deterred: The ex-president is running again for the US presidency in 2024. That in itself is not surprising.
Because Trump wouldn’t be Trump if he were deterred by the poor performance of the Republican candidates he supports in the midterm elections.
In his speech, which is somewhat erratic as always, he hinted at what his campaign strategy will be: against the Washington establishment, against the environmentalists, against the politically correct – and of course everything for the United States. He wants to make America “secure, glorious and great”, of course at the expense of others.
Bullying, defamatory. So everything as usual. But what are his chances this time?
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There are many in the US and Europe who believe that the Trump era is over. But even more dangerous than Trump himself is to underestimate him.
It would be premature to predict Trump’s defeat
Yes, the midterms showed that without Trump, Trumpism won’t win elections: If anything, Americans want the original, not bad copies, which is why his candidates failed almost universally at the midterms.
However, to draw the conclusion from this that Trump can neither win the primaries, let alone the presidential elections, is at least premature. If there’s one survival phenomenon in America, it’s Trump. Even as an entrepreneur, he always came back despite a large number of spectacular bankruptcies. He survived countless lawsuits – of every kind, from fraud to tax evasion to sexual harassment.
And when Trump first announced his intention to run for the presidency, his fellow party members first poked fun at him, only to later submit to him in a way no one who knew the history of the Grand Old Party would have thought possible.
>> Read here: “America’s comeback is starting right now” – Trump announces renewed candidacy for president
Trump survived two impeachment trials and the legendary checks and balances of American democracy failed because of Big Donald. The office and the controls did not moderate Trump – they spurred him on to push the boundaries of what was possible.
Especially in foreign policy: NATO? Obsolete. As is the European Union. Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi and North Korea’s Kim? All leaders with role model character. The rules-based world order? Nothing but a system for the systematic exploitation of America.
This is Trump’s world – and the danger that his simplifications and falsifications will catch on with American voters is at least real, despite the respectable success of the Democrats in the midterms.
Of course, Ron DeSantis – Florida’s big winner – could become a threat to Trump. The Harvard graduate is more predictable and mannered than the ex-president, but no less radical in his views. This applies to both refugee policy and foreign policy.
DeSantis has yet to prove himself
Whether the governor, like Trump, is able to inspire and mobilize the masses nationwide remains to be proven. America knows, and the Republicans know, that the talented entertainer Trump, with his polemical style, is capable of doing this.
>> Read about this: Ron DeSantis – Who is the politician Trump fears?
Trump is responsible for perhaps the most critical moment in American democracy since the Civil War. The shock after the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 runs deep in the USA – even among Republicans.
Perhaps this shock will finally trigger the overdue process of emancipation of the Grand Old Party from its “enfant terrible”. You shouldn’t bet on it.
Trump’s candidacy is good news, especially for those in Beijing and Moscow who are hoping for further signs of weakness from the leading Western power. And from the point of view of the Europeans, it would be downright negligent not to prepare for the scenario of a second Trump presidency.
More: Who will be the next President? The successors to Biden and Trump are ready