Many altcoins, including BTC and DOGE, are wreaking havoc after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the possibility of smaller rate hikes in 2023. But is it possible to maintain the momentum? Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay analyzes the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin didn’t care about the weakness in the US stock markets. Accordingly, it is trying to initiate a recovery. Buyers are striving to close above $17,000 per month. This is an indication that sales are declining, possibly due to the FTX crisis.
Usually, smaller investors panic and throw their holdings into a bear market. However, the situation has been the opposite for Bitcoin investors. Investors holding less than one Bitcoin, also called shrimp, have bought 96,200 Bitcoins since the FTX crash, according to Glassnode data released on Nov. Similarly, investors holding between 1 and 10 Bitcoins classified as crab have bought 191,600 Bitcoins in the last 30 days. This indicates that investors continue to accumulate at lower levels.
However, a sharp recovery in Bitcoin price is unlikely for a while. Trading firm QCP Capital believes the December 13 US CPI data and the Fed’s December 14 policy decision could act as risk factors as many investors may be forced to ‘continually sell assets to increase liquidity’. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC rose from $15,995 on November 28. Thus, it broke above the descending triangle pattern that developed on November 30. This invalidated the downtrend. It may also have attracted buying from the bulls trying to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $16,910.
A close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bears are losing control. It is possible for BTC to rally further to $17,622 and then to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $18,434. Sellers are expected to vigorously defend this area. If the price drops from the general zone but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are buying the lows. This is likely to increase the probability of a rally to $20,000 and then $21,500. Another possibility is for the price to drop from $17,622. If this happens, it will suggest that BTC will consolidate between $15,476 and $17,622 for some time to come.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH fell from the 20-day EMA of $1,234 on Nov 26. However, the bulls stopped the dip at $1,151 on Nov. 28. This is likely a sign that there is a revival in demand and that the mood will turn positive.
Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day EMA. They will also try to break above the 50-day SMA of $1,335 from now on. If successful, ETH is likely to rise to the resistance line of the descending channel. This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. Because a break above the channel indicates a possible trend reversal. For this bullish view to be invalidated, the bears will need to defend the 50-day SMA and push the price below $1,051. It is possible that ETH will later drop to the support line of the channel.
Binance Coin (BNB)
BNB bounced off the moving averages on November 29. However, the bulls are struggling to maintain this move. This suggests that the bears will pose a strong challenge between $300 and $318.
The 20-day EMA at $292 is flattening and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This shows that there is a balance between supply and demand. If they push the price above $318, the advantage will likely turn in the buyers’ favor. This is likely to open the way for a rally to $338, where the bears will once again form a firm barrier. This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and falls below the moving averages. BNB is likely to drop to the $258 support later on.
Ripple (XRP)
The bulls successfully defended a retest of the breakout from the symmetrical triangle on November 28. This is a positive sign as it shows traders buying the dips in XRP.
The bounce has reached the overhead resistance of $0.41, which is an important level to consider. If the bulls spike the price above this resistance, it is possible for XRP to rally to $0.45 and then $0.51. On the other hand, if the price drops from the current level, it will indicate that the bears are selling aggressively around $0.41. They will then try to pull the price inside the triangle again. If they do, XRP is likely to drop to $0.34.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA remains in a downtrend. However, the bullish divergence in the RSI shows that the bearish momentum is weakening.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA at $0.32 to signal strength. If they do, it is possible for ADA to start a rebound towards the downtrend line. The 50-day SMA at $0.36 is likely to act as a resistance, but is likely to be surpassed. Conversely, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears will then try to continue the downtrend and push the price down to the support line.
DOGE, MATIC, DOT, LTC and UNI analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE bounced off the 20-day EMA at $0.09 on Nov. 28. This shows that the mood is turning positive and traders are buying the lows.
The rising 20-day EMA and RSI above 60 suggest that the bulls have the upper hand. Buyers are trying to extend the recovery to $0.11, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and $0.12, the 61.8% retracement level. Sellers are likely to make a strong defense in this area. If the price turns down from this, DOGE could drop back to the 20-day EMA. On the contrary, if buyers push DOGE price above the general zone, DOGE could complete a 100% pullback and rally to $0.16.
Polygon (MATIC)
MATIC is stuck between the 20-day EMA of $0.88 and the uptrend line. The 20-day EMA is flattening and the RSI is near the midpoint. This shows that there is a balance between supply and demand.
The bulls are trying to push the price above the moving averages and gain an edge. If they are successful, it is possible for MATIC to climb to $0.97 followed by a rise to $1.05. This level is likely to pull the bears’ selling again. However, the bullish momentum is likely to increase if the bulls break this hurdle. This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down from the moving averages and slides below the bullish line. MATIC is likely to drop to the key $0.69 support later on.
Polkadot (DOT)
The DOT rallied at $5.06 on Nov. 28. This shows that the bulls are trying to form a bottom at $5. The price reached the 20-day EMA ($5.52) on Nov. 30. This level will likely act as a tough resistance.
RSI has formed a bullish bias as DOT has not followed lower. This indicates that the selling pressure will weaken, increasing the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. If this happens, the DOT is likely to rise to $6, the 50-day SMA. Also, it is possible that it will attempt a rally towards the downtrend line later on. Alternatively, if the price drops from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are seeing the relief rally as a selling opportunity. Meanwhile, a break below $5 signals a resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $4.32.
Litecoin (LTC)
LTC, the long tail on the November 28 candlestick shows strong buying at the lower levels. It is also a sign that buyers are trying to turn the $75 breakout level to support.
The rising 20-day EMA at $69 and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. Buyers will have to push the price above $84 to start a fresh upward move that could reach $104. Instead, if the bulls fail to push the price above $84, the bears will again try to push LTC below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do this, it’s possible that a few aggressive bulls will be trapped. This is also likely to result in long liquidations. LTC is likely to fall later to $60, the 50-day SMA.
Uniswap (UNI)
The bulls are buying the dips at the support line of the symmetrical triangle formation. This is a positive sign as it shows demand is at lower levels. Buyers are trying to strengthen their position by pushing Uniswap UNI above the 20-day EMA of $5.67.
The RSI is up near the midpoint, indicating that the bearish momentum will be weakening. If the buyers hold the price above the 20-day EMA, a recovery attempt by UNI towards the resistance line of the triangle is possible. Meanwhile, a break above the triangle will suggest a potential trend change. On the contrary, if the price fails to break above the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell in the rallies. They will then try to push the price back below the triangle. Thus, they will open the doors for a decline to $4.60 and then $3.33.
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