Good morning dear readers,
It is exactly one year ago today that Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) gave a historic speech in which he outlined Germany’s response to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. In the Bundestag, Scholz promised the Germans a “turning point” just three days after the Russian invasion, especially for the rusty military defense of the country and the alliance.
But now, a year later, it is becoming apparent that the promised “turn of the era” is more like a “turn in slow motion”.. Because when it comes to equipment, nothing has really improved for Germany’s army since then – on the contrary. Finally, the Bundeswehr sent self-propelled howitzers, ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine to make them available to the army there. Unfortunately, since then, apparently, it has not been possible to reorder the material that was sent in this country.
Even the “special fund” of 100 billion euros announced by Scholz a year ago does not have the effect that the massive sum initially seemed to have. After all, a third of the money has so far been “contractually bound”, which means that it is at least clear what you intend to spend it on.
But arms procurement has its own arithmetic, characterized by few suppliers, high inflation and long-term contracts. In addition, the Bundeswehr was subjected to austerity measures for decades after the end of the Cold War. Against this background, the 100 billion euros no longer seem that much.
Army inspector Alfons Mais also complained at a Handelsblatt conference that artillery or ammunition, for example, were not included in the special fund. Currently, according to the bitter assessment, the Bundeswehr would have to stop fighting after a few days if it were to defend itself because it ran out of grenades or rockets.
Read here the analysis of the turning point that was not.
One effect that the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine had for Germany was the abandonment of the country’s most reliable source of energy: Russian gas. While Russia was still the most important supplier before the start of the war, over the course of the past year Germany has gradually made itself independent of the cheap stuff from the East.
In a guest commentary, the two scientists Axel Ockenfels and Georg Zachmann play through the possibility that Russia could soon make targeted gas supply offers to individual companies or member states. An economically tempting offer that could have serious consequences for political cohesion in Europe. Therefore, the authors call for a ban on new contracts for such gas supplies in order to limit Russia’s strategic room for maneuver.
From looking east now to looking west: There are increasing signs that an agreement in the post-Brexit dispute over the status of Northern Ireland could be imminent. This is reported by the British broadcaster BBC. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is therefore traveling to London today to meet British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
The dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol has remained unresolved since Great Britain left the EU. The protocol provides for the UK-EU customs border to run in the Irish Sea to avoid border controls between Britain’s Northern Ireland and EU member Republic of Ireland. This was supposed to prevent the old inner-Ireland conflict from flaring up again. But Union supporters in Northern Ireland feel cut off from Great Britain by the treaty.
An agreement in this difficult situation would be a great success for Prime Minister Sunak, who, just to be on the safe side, quickly assured the British that he was still a convinced “Brexiteer”.
The view to the south also promises a lot of excitement at the moment. Because in Nigeria a new parliament and a new president were elected at the weekend. However, going to the ballot box in Africa’s most populous country was delayed for security reasons and because some documents and personnel were missing. The election is seen as a test of stability in the region and could bring about some political changes.
Why should we be particularly interested in these and other African elections at the moment? Among other things, because some countries on the continent are currently deciding to no longer export their valuable raw materials, which are mainly needed for the electronics industry. This could result in a change in the global battery market, which China dominates from front to back. But in order to benefit from this change, European companies would have to get on board quickly – because once again it is the Chinese who are building the first processing plants for lithium in Africa.
Finally, a warning to all German companies that still pay their works councils according to the “hypothetical career” model. The term describes the practice of rewarding a non-existent career that an employee might have made without serving on the works council.
According to the Federal Court of Justice, this is not permissible, but according to a Handelsblatt survey it is still common practice. But the worst-case scenario is a criminal conviction for breach of trust and up to five years in prison.
I actually think the term “hypothetical career” is too good to abolish. All the hypothetical careers I would have had if, annoyingly, something hadn’t always gotten in the way.
I wish you a great day on which you not only hypothetically but also actually achieve the goals you have set yourself.
It greets you cordially
Her
Teresa Stiens
Editor of the Handelsblatt
