Munich Farmers wading through their fields, the crops destroyed. The severe storms in Italy over the past few days have severely affected the popular holiday region of Emilia-Romagna. 14 people died and thousands had to leave their homes. Some areas are still under water.
Peter Hoffmann researches extreme weather events at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and believes this is just the beginning. Instead of a few hot days, there could be more “heat weeks” in the future. In an interview, he explains why global warming is increasing extreme weather phases and how this could change summer holiday destinations and tourism in general.
Mr. Hoffmann, countries like France and Spain have been suffering from droughts for months, while at the same time massive rainfall has devastated parts of Emilia-Romagna. How does that fit together?
We have known for a long time that global warming can intensify critical weather conditions that lead to extreme heat or constant rain. The climate-related slowdown of the jet stream, the strong wind coming from the west, which wraps around the globe like a band, plays a role. Low-pressure areas can get stuck over the Mediterranean region.
It then rains locally longer and with rising temperatures also more heavily. At the same time, other regions are suffering from extensive drought. We are currently experiencing these contrasts in southern Europe.
Forests burned in Spain and Portugal last summer, and drinking water was so scarce in France that tankers had to provide emergency supplies to towns and villages. Even today, private pools have to remain empty there. Will we say goodbye to summer vacations in the Mediterranean soon?
Projections show that extreme heat will become more frequent and intense there, but also here. Instead of a few hot days, we will probably experience more heat weeks. But that doesn’t mean that spring or autumn will be better suited for a Mediterranean holiday. It usually rains more during this time. With the climate-related weather changes, you are unlucky to catch a heavy rain phase instead of a few overcast days.
Weather extremes are increasing.
(Photo: dpa)
How will this change tourism?
Maybe holidaymakers will book more spontaneously depending on the weather and no longer half a year in advance. It is also conceivable that classic travel destinations will shift to the north, i.e. to Central Europe or in the direction of Scandinavia. And that skiers increasingly have to be content with artificial snow – and high costs for ski passes, since snow cannons swallow a lot of energy.
How vulnerable are we in Germany to weather extremes like those in Italy or Spain at the moment? The flood disaster in the Ahr valley with 134 dead was less than two years ago.
The extreme weather conditions that we are currently experiencing in southern Europe are harbingers of what can also come our way.
What does that mean specifically?
In Germany, instead of once a century, we can expect floods like the one in the Ahr Valley or the Elbe in 2002 every ten to 30 years. We also have to be prepared for new temperature records all the time. Regions like Brandenburg have been suffering from extreme drought for years.
So far, however, we have hardly noticed this in everyday life because, for example, the supermarket shelves are well stocked. But with rising temperatures, the weather extremes intensify and sometimes also failures in agriculture or shortages of drinking water.
The scientist researches extreme weather events at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
(Photo: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
How well are we prepared for this? In this country, large areas of soil are sealed, rainfall flows off quickly instead of seeping into the earth and into the groundwater. Concepts such as sponge cities that store water are still rare.
There is certainly room for improvement when it comes to adaptation. What is comparatively easy to implement is the installation of mobile dikes. But of course you also have to look at the infrastructure, because it stands for decades. Everything that is changed afterwards, such as renaturing sealed areas or greening cities, is of course more expensive. And there are limits to customization.
>> Read also: From concrete islands to sponge cities – Germany’s municipalities have to arm themselves against heat and flash floods
What are you thinking about?
Sea level rise, for example. By the end of the century, this could increase by a meter on average globally if emissions continue to grow at the current pace. In Europe, we can still cope relatively easily. Perhaps with the exception of Holland, which is two-thirds sea level or well below. But think of the islands in the Pacific that are already sinking.
The devastating flood was less than two years ago.
(Photo: AFP/Getty Images)
If global warming exceeds two degrees, there is a risk that coral reefs will almost completely disappear. In addition, there is an increasing danger that we will cross tipping points and initiate serious long-term changes. That, for example, permafrost thaws, releasing huge amounts of the climate killer methane, which heats up the atmosphere even faster. And then we haven’t talked about critical infrastructure that sits on rivers.
Like in France, where nuclear power plants have to be taken off the grid if there is no river water for cooling?
Floods are also a risk.
Do you think that images like those in Italy, where people save themselves on roofs, increase acceptance of uncomfortable climate protection measures?
One would hope so. The problem is the time dimension. In the case of threats like Corona, measures such as a lockdown take effect quickly and the number of infections drops immediately. When it comes to climate protection, however, we only see the effects of our actions years later. That may be one reason why we are so lazy in the face of the huge potential impacts of climate change.
We decide today whether the next generation will find a world worth living in, even if we don’t notice much of it ourselves. Reducing emissions and limiting climate change should therefore be the top priority.
Mr. Hoffmann, thank you very much for the interview.
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