Dusseldorf With a weak start to trading, the Dax continued on Tuesday with its lack of momentum on Shrove Monday. In the first hour of trading, the leading German index was at 15,444 points, almost unchanged from the closing price of the previous day. Already on the highest holiday of the carnivalists, the Dax had left the market with 15,478 points, hardly changed.
The German stock exchange barometer thus remains within the narrow trading range of the past few weeks. On the top is the annual high of 15,659 points from February 9th. On the downside, the area between 15,250 and 15,275 points is a resistance. Only when the Dax breaks out of this range of 400 points will there be a lasting change in the direction of the German stock market.
Stock market strategists expect prices to continue to rise. Because in stock market history, a weak year with losses – like 2022 – was always followed by a strong one. However, in these strong years, significant course corrections usually took place before the summer.
Investors are now trying to anticipate this setback and are risk-averse in the meantime. They don’t want to be caught unawares by falling prices and instead look for profit-taking.
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Today, Tuesday, they are hoping for information about the further development of the German economy based on current survey data. In the late morning, the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will publish the results of its monthly survey of stock market professionals.
They are regarded as early indicators of economic development in Germany. Analysts expect slight improvements, fears of a recession seem to have been banished for the time being.
In addition stands the publication a number of purchasing manager indices, including those from Germany, Great Britain and the USA. For the German industrial index for February, economists expect a slightly improved value of 48. However, this would still be below the threshold of 50. Values above this signal a production growth of the companies.
The market observers at Helaba are dampening hopes of concrete indications from the new data. The picture of the economic situation will remain vague. Because the data should not be “good enough to spread economic optimism, but also not weak enough to dissuade the ECB from raising interest rates,” writes the Hessisch-Thüringische Landesbank in an analysis.
Impulses from the reporting season
In addition, the reporting season continues on Tuesday. Among others, the US retail group Walmart, the US medical technology group Medtronic and the French IT consulting giant Capgemini are opening their books. The major British bank HSBC had already announced before the European stock exchanges opened that they would have increased their profits in 2022.
In the afternoon, further impetus could come from Wall Street. After the holiday-related break on Monday, however, analysts are expecting a weak trading day here as well. Because one day before the minutes of the last interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve are published, many are likely to remain in a waiting mood.
The so-called Fed Minutes show how unanimously the decision to raise the key interest rate by 0.25 points at the beginning of February was made. From this information, investors try to figure out how the Fed’s interest rate policy could turn out. Further interest rate hikes are likely to cause pessimism in the markets.
Look at individual values
Adva Optical Networking: The Bavarian network supplier met its goals in the past year. At 712 million euros, sales in 2022 were within the forecasts of 680 to 730 million euros, which were lowered in the summer, as the company announced on Tuesday. Net profit, on the other hand, collapsed by two-thirds. The Adva share loses 0.3 percent, but supports its parent company, the US telecom supplier Adtran, whose papers in Frankfurt rise by almost one percent.
Commerzbank: Even today, the rise in the Dax-40 moves the stock market price of the financial institution. On February 27, Germany’s second largest private bank will replace industrial gases specialist Linde in the index, which has withdrawn from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The papers start the trading day with a plus of two percent.
German Stock Exchange: The analysts of the investment bank Jefferies changed the share from “buy” to “hold” and lowered the price target to 190 from 210 euros. This puts a strain on the shares of the stock exchange operator, they lose more than three percent and are at the bottom of the Dax-40.
Rheinmetall: The promise of the German industry to deliver armored personnel carriers to the Ukraine gives the armaments company further rising prices. The share, which is listed in the MDax, has increased by almost two percent.
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