Dusseldorf The German benchmark index Dax is currently in stable shape, but for a year-end spurt, the benchmark index has to overcome another important mark. This is how the situation on the stock market can currently be described.
Today, Monday, the Dax is already working on a basis for a year-end spurt. In the afternoon, the Dax rose by around 0.9 percent to 15,760 points. This means that the Frankfurt benchmark is no longer far removed from the important hurdles, the overcoming of which would pave the way for prices above 16,000 points. The stock market barometer ended the last trading day of last week with a minus of 0.1 percent at 15,623 digits. On a weekly basis, however, the leading index rose by almost three percent.
Clues as to when a year-end spurt with courses could start, provides a look at last week’s Dax chart. With prices above 15,834 points, the leading German index would continue its small upward trend since the end of November. With prices below 15,150 points, however, the upward movement on a weekly basis would be over.
But for Thomas Altmann from the investment house QC Partners it is far from certain that the Dax can break last week’s high of 15,834 points. In the end, when prices rose, profit-taking occurred very quickly. “Especially towards the end of the year, profit-taking should not decrease,” says the capital market expert. Because shortly before the end of the year, nobody wants to position themselves on the wrong side. “That is why positions that are going in the wrong direction are quickly closed.” The nervousness in the market remains high, which can be deduced both from the unchanged high stock exchange turnover and from the continued above-average volatility.
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For guidance, investors should use technical analysis “Know two important guard rails”, as Jörg Scherer from HSBC Germany puts it. On the downside, the 200-day line area offers very important support. This line is mainly observed by long-term investors and currently runs at 15,458 meters. Should the Dax fall below this mark, a year-end spurt would probably no longer be an issue.
On the upside, the 38-day line acts as a bigger hurdle. This line shows the short-term trend and runs at 15,781 digits. According to Martin Utschneider, technical analyst at the private bank Donner & Reuschel: “For a possible ‘Christmas rally’ the 38-day line must be overcome clearly and sustainably.” The course development on Monday underlines the importance of this average line. After the daily high of 15,794 points, the Dax gave way again and slipped below the 38-day line
The Handelsblatt survey Dax Sentiment offers little indication of the direction in which the Dax will move in the coming days. A large number of investors are neutral. A tendency from which no new trend can be derived, but which can exacerbate a new direction if these neutrals start to invest. For Stephan Heibel, after evaluating the survey, it is clear that investors “need courage and good protection if they want to invest at the moment”.
Turkish lira threatens further decline
New trading week, new record lows for the Turkish lira. In return, the dollar rises above the 14 lira mark for the first time and has reached a new high of 14.6180. The situation is similar with the European common currency, which has risen above 16 lira for the first time in history. The new record high is 16.4441 lira.
Last Friday there was the third unsuccessful foreign exchange intervention by the Turkish central bank. It is noticeable: The half-life of every intervention is getting shorter and shorter. On Friday it took only an hour for the euro to return to almost exactly its original level. That shouldn’t come as a surprise: because all market participants know that the central bank has far too few dollar reserves to operate successfully in the market.
And in the opinion of Commerzbank’s foreign exchange analysts, there is likely to be a further decline in the coming weeks. The reason for assumption: So far, inflation expectations have lagged behind actual inflation. But that picture has changed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations seem to be above the level of actual inflation. “This forward-looking view is probably based on the fact that the currency has already depreciated significantly and that this will ultimately have an impact on inflation again,” says Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose.
That should continue to drive the spiral between the devaluation of the exchange rate and higher inflation. That is why there would be “a strong overshoot of the dollar-lira exchange rate” in the coming weeks.
The next monetary policy meeting of the Turkish central bank will take place on Thursday. The market is already anticipating that the one-week repo rate will be reduced by a further 100 basis points to 14.00 percent.
Look at individual values
SAP: A positive analyst comment gives a boost. The shares of the software company rise by three percent to 121.94 euros. The UBS experts upgraded the stocks from “neutral” to “buy” and raised the target price from 130 to 147 euros. Expert Michael Briest is counting on accelerating the cloud business in the coming year, which will push ahead with the revaluation of the papers.
Daimler Truck: There were further analyst assessments for the paper, which was only brought on the stock exchange last Friday. Experts like the investment story of the truck market leader with price targets of up to 48 euros. Started at 28 euros on Friday, they have since shot up to 32.85 euros.
Hugo Boss: In the second-tier index MDax, the papers have meanwhile gained almost four percent. Andreas Riemann from Oddo BHF sees the change at Metzingen only at the beginning.
Carl Zeiss Meditec: With a rate of over six percent, the papers finally made the damper from Friday after business figures forgotten. Falko Friedrichs from Deutsche Bank reassured us and announced a promising new financial year.
United Internet: United Internet shares benefit from the CEO’s plans to increase stake. Ralph Dommermuth received various offers to purchase blocks of shares over the counter. He had recently shown openly to pay up to 35 euros per share and thus more than investors currently have to pay for on the stock exchange. The paper is currently quoting 3.4 percent plus at 34.05 euros.
Fraport: The airport operator anticipates a weakening of the recovery in passenger numbers for the current month due to the further worsening corona crisis. The share can assert itself despite this news and is only 0.8 percent in the red.
Morphosys: Encouraging test results for a cancer drug encouraged investors to get started initially. The shares of the Bavarian biotech company initially rose by up to two percent, but are now 3.9 percent in the red.
German Pfandbrief Bank: The shares are traded with a dividend discount of EUR 0.58. Compared to the Friday closing of 10.55 euros, this means a decrease of 5.5 percent. The current price is 10.26 euros, a decrease of 2.7 percent.
Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.